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MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS- (covers.com): kansas city royals betting preview.#29 Kansas City Royals2006 W-L 62-100
2006 O-U 80-73-9Kansas City has finished in last place in the American League Central the last three seasons after an 83-79 finish in 2003. It looked as though things were turning the right way for the Royals but they won 25 less games in 2004 and have yet to recover. This could be the season that things go back up but considering the fact that Kansas City has averaged just over 58 wins the last three seasons, we can’t be overly optimistic. This division has produced the American League pennant winner the last two seasons but it’s safe to say the Royals aren’t going to extend this trend in 2007. Money
The Royals had the 2nd worst record in all of baseball last season but they were the 5th most profitable team, picking up 10.9 units. The reason for this was obviously the big moneylines that Kansas City had as it finished a very respectable 24-39 +15.5 units when an underdog of at least 2-to-1. Playing at home was not an advantage for the Royals as they finished 34-47, the worst home record in all of baseball but still managed to gain 3.1 units. Kansas City played 46 day games and won only 11, dropping close to 15 units before the sun went down. The Royals were a chalk only four times all season long and we should see something similar again this year.Young and inconsistent pitching pushed 80 games over the total as Kansas City allowed an MLB-worst six rpg. The Royals and their opponents averaged a combined 10.7 rpg and that number jumped to 11.4 rpg at Kauffman Stadium where they went 41-35-5 over. The only low scoring games came away from grass parks where Kansas City played 11 of its 15 games under. The Royals won only 13 of 39 games against left-handed pitching yet only 19 of those games stayed under the number. Offense
Kansas City was a disappointment at the plate last season, finishing 11th and 12th in batting average and runs scored in the American League respectively. Kansas City finished last in the league in slugging percentage as well. The Royals were not able to bring in much to improve things but they are going to rely on youngsters once again led by third baseman Alex Gordon, the 2006 Minor League Player of the Year. His promotion will likely move Mark Teahen, the team’s best player from last season, to the outfield. If Mike Sweeney, who is coming off his worst season since 1998 because of injuries, can stay healthy then the offense could be a pleasant surprise. Pitching
The Royals used 14 different starting pitchers last season as inconsistency and injuries hurt throughout the year. Kansas City finished with a league worst 5.65 ERA and that ERA was identical at both home and on the road. The good news is that no one from last season’s opening five-man rotation is back. The Royals upgraded their pitching, or at least tried to upgrade, as they signed Gil Meche to a 5-year, $55 million contract. Meche is 55-44 with a 4.65 ERA in six seasons so an upgrade is a lofty term. The Bullpen blew a league-high 31 saves so the addition of Octavio Dotel as the closer should help. The middle relief also added David Riske while rookie Joakim Soria should contribute right away. FREE MLB PICKS: (associated press): marlins counting on young roataion of pitchers.  They hail from Oakland and Oklahoma, from Venezuela, from Kalamazoo and Corona, Calif. Two are newlyweds, all are 25 or younger and none is afraid to throw Ryan Howard a bases-loaded fastball.They make up the Florida Marlins' rotation, and they make baseball's lowest-paid team a potential playoff contender.They're that good.It's a talented bunch, new manager Fredi Gonzalez said. I'm fortunate to step into a situation that has that.Gonzalez comes to the Marlins after four years as the Atlanta Braves' third-base coach, and he inherits the game's youngest rotation.newbodog.com has the Marlins listed at +3800 to win the 2007 World Series.In 2006, with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco, Florida became the first team to have four rookies win at least 10 games. Add ace Dontrelle Willis' 12-12 record, and the fivesome went 57-43.For Gonzalez and Braves manager Bobby Cox, who faced the Marlins 19 times, the rotation stirred memories of the 1991 Atlanta staff with the young trio of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.Now they've got to do it over the next 15 years, Cox said. Then we'll know for sure. But they're young and good.Improving on 2006 won't be easy. There's already concern about the health of Johnson, who sat out the final three weeks of last season with tightness in his right arm and has yet to pitch at spring training camp because the problem persists.But Olsen (12-10, 4.04 ERA) envisions improvement from all five starters.We could potentially all win 16 games, he said. I'm talking all five. It hasn't happened, but a lot of things that happened last year hadn't happened, so who's to say it can't?Five times 16 would be 80 wins, putting the Marlins well on the way to their first playoff berth since they won the 2003 World Series.Pitching also was Florida's strength then, when Willis joined the team in May and became NL rookie of the year. Now the Oakland native is newly married and soon to become a father, and at age 25, he's the staff ace and elder statesman.Last season was no fluke for the rotation, Willis said.The sky's the limit, he said. I tell everybody I'm the worst one out of the group. They're farther along than I was at that point. I see them do things I'm not even trying to begin to do in my fifth season. I have a lot of respect for them.Olsen, a left-hander from Kalamazoo, Mich., set club rookie records for innings (180 2-3) and strikeouts (166). Johnson, the Oklahoman, went 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA, finished fourth in NL rookie of the year voting and capped his big year by getting married.Sanchez, the Venezuelan, made his big-league debut in June and finished 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA. He went 5-1 in September, including the first no-hitter in the majors in 2 1/2 years. Nolasco, a California native and former Chicago Cubs prospect, split his rookie season between the rotation and bullpen and went 11-11 in 35 games.Higher expectations may weigh on the youngsters as they try to build on last season, but Sanchez doesn't see it that way.It's different this year, because I'm going to stay on the team, he said. Last year I didn't know where I was going to pitch, the minor leagues or here. This year I'm more relaxed.Olsen said his goal is to be the Marlins' best pitcher. The others in the rotation have the same objective, he said, which should make them all better.You want to outdo everybody else, he said. You use that as motivation. If one guy goes out and goes seven innings, I want to go eight. If I go eight, he wants to go nine.Olsen and Johnson are still only 23. Sanchez turned 23 Tuesday, and Nolasco is 24.They have high ceilings, and they're young kids, Gonzalez said. There are still better things we're going to see.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FREE PICKS- (associated press): braves mike hampton taking steps to comeback.
 
 Mike Hampton was back on the mound for the Atlanta Braves, throwing breaking balls for the first time this spring.Taking another small step in his comeback from major elbow surgery, Hampton threw a handful of curves during five minutes of batting practice Tuesday. He could definitely feel the resistance in his elbow.I'm not where I need to be, Hampton said in Kissimmee, Fla. It felt good early, then I threw some breaking balls. I didn't feel as good later in the session as it did earlier.Seventeen months ago, doctors cut into Hampton's left elbow and replaced a damaged ligament - the dreaded Tommy John procedure. The recovery always takes at least a year and, even then, there's no guarantee that the elbow will feel like it did before, at least not right away.Hampton, who was hopeful of being 100 percent when he got to spring training, now realizes that he's still in the midst of rehabilitation.There's going to be good days and bad days, he said, standing at his locker with a bulky ice pack strapped to his left shoulder. I just know I've got a long way to go. I've still got some stuff to accomplish before I can get into a game. That's just reality.FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): twins resign reliever crain. The Twins agreed to terms Tuesday with right-handed reliever Jesse Crain on a three-year deal that will keep him in Minnesota through the 2009 season.
The 25-year-old Crain went 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 68 appearances last season, finishing the year strong to help the Twins rally to their fourth AL Central title in five seasons.In his final 22 appearances, Crain was 2-0 with a 0.38 ERA and allowed just 14 hits.It's definitely something I'm excited about, Crain said. The Twins worked with us real good to get it.In two-plus seasons with the Twins, Crain is 19-10 and has emerged as one of the team's most reliable arms in the bullpen. The Canadian has served as a setup man on occasion for closer Joe Nathan, and the Twins believe he has the stuff to be a closer someday himself.Terms were not disclosed, but Crain said he was somewhat surprised when the Twins approached him about a new contract. General manager Terry Ryan had a busy offseason, signing catcher Joe Mauer to a four-year, $33 million deal and scrambling to avoid arbitration with MVP Justin Morneau and cleanup hitter Michael Cuddyer.It was something I was actually hoping for, but I wasn't sure it was going to happen with everybody that had arbitration this year, Crain said. I'm excited for it and look forward to being with the Twins.MLB FREE PICKS- (associated press): braves name starter at first base.   While waiting to step into the hitting cage, Scott Thorman whips his bat through the air like he's mad at someone.
He's got a vicious swing. He might just have the hardest swing in baseball, Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox marveled Sunday. You can actually hear his swing when you're standing there.Thorman is one of the most-watched players in camp this spring, a 25-year-old rookie taking over at first base for rising slugger Adam LaRoche, who was traded to Pittsburgh.Will the Braves wind up with a gaping hole in their lineup? Or will the change be barely noticeable? Stay tuned.They'll be comparable, third baseman Chipper Jones predicted. Is Thormy going to hit 32 homers? No. Probably not. But I think with 500 or 600 at-bats, he's going to hit 25.At 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, the Canadian is hard to miss. Plus, he does everything at full speed, whether it's taking his hacks in batting practice or showing up every morning by 8 o'clock to get in some extra defensive work on the back fields.I play the game hard until it's over, Thorman said. That's all I know. You can't always be good, you can't always get the big hit. But you can play hard and hustle. Sometimes you can help your team win that way.Thorman, a first-round draft pick in 2000, has shown promising power over the last two seasons.In 2005, he combined for 21 homers and 92 RBIs while splitting time between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Richmond. Last season, he hit 15 homers at Richmond and five more after being called up to the big leagues for the first time.Unlike LaRoche, who platooned during his first couple of years in the majors, the Braves are projecting the left-handed-hitting Thorman to play regularly. He's looking forward to the opportunity.In the minor leagues, you play every day, he said. I feel personally that I'm ready, but that's not my decision. I just want to help the team in whatever role they feel is best.Thorman is about a month away from becoming a new father. His wife, Kelly, is due to deliver the couple's first child, a boy, on March 25. She joined her husband at spring training and plans to deliver the child in central Florida - perhaps just days before the team breaks camp and heads north for opening day.I kind of have a lot going on right now, Thorman said with a nervous smile. It's a very exciting time for us and our families. I'm just trying to have fun with it as much as possible.That's the same approach he's taking when it comes to replacing LaRoche, who hit .285 with 32 homers and 90 RBIs. Thorman isn't worried about matching those numbers; he just wants to help the Braves get back to the playoffs after their streak of 14 straight division titles ended in 2006.The team clearly felt that Thorman was ready for a regular spot. When they got a chance to upgrade the bullpen, they dealt LaRoche to the Pirates for reliever Mike Gonzalez.It's a great situation, Thorman said. The goal is to make the playoffs and win the World Series. As far as individual statistics, I don't think anyone would put themselves ahead of the team. It's about winning ballgames.At least he knows there's plenty of big hitters in the lineup. Atlanta was one of the top offensive teams in the National League a year ago and now, even after trading LaRoche, still has Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur.We've got such a powerful lineup, Thorman said. It takes a lot of pressure off me.Growing up in a blue-collar town just west of Toronto, he naturally played hockey as a kid. Thorman was a defenseman, the big guy who could skate backward.But he was always better at baseball, so he went with America's pastime when it came time to decide which sport would get his full attention.Thorman's father coached him in both sports but wasn't around to see how it all turned out. He died from skin cancer when Scott was only 12.I definitely appreciate things a lot more now, Thorman said. I had to grow up at an early age going through those struggles. But I think it makes you stronger as a person.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS: (associated press): bonds to sit out preseason opener. It's no surprise that Barry Bonds will not play in San Francisco's Cactus League opener Thursday against the Chicago Cubs.The slugger rarely treks to road ballparks - as close as they are around here - during the exhibition season. Giants manager Bruce Bochy said Monday he is opting to keep Bonds back at Scottsdale Stadium to get his work in despite how healthy and strong the San Francisco star has been feeling so far.Does it matter? Bonds said with a smile after his workout Monday. It's the same question every year. ... I'm exhausted.Reminded that he is Barry Bonds - and 22 homers shy of breaking Hank Aaron's home run record - and most everyone is interested in his schedule, he chuckled and quipped, I'm changing my name.newbodog.com has the Giants listed at +1500 to win the 2007 World Series.Bonds' first chance to play at home in Scottsdale will be Friday against the Milwaukee Brewers. Sometimes in recent springs, a reeling Bonds had the chance to be the designated hitter even against National League teams when the opposing club agreed to it. Bochy doesn't see that being necessary this year.He's not going to Mesa. We'll see where Barry's at, Bochy said. We need to get him ready for the season. I don't think it takes Barry long to get ready. We need to get him the at-bats he needs.If Bonds had been set to play, the game would have featured three of the biggest free agents from the offseason. Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano signed an eight-year, $136 million deal; Bonds received a $15.8 million, one-year contract; and left-hander Barry Zito will take the mound for the first time since the Giants gave him a $126 million, seven-year deal in late December.Yes, Zito vs. Soriano still will pique fans' interest.The 42-year-old Bonds has been upbeat and enjoying himself so far this spring. Before Monday's workout, the team held the second segment of its Giants Idol show with the young players performing atop the dugout. Zito posed as Paula Abdul, while Rich Aurilia and Randy Winn were the other judges.A grinning Bonds, flanked by his new Major League Baseball security guard, Gene McClanahan, sang along to Elvis Presley's Jailhouse Rock - performed by catcher Steve Holm - and clapped his hands above his head to cheer on his teammates. Bonds high-fived a couple of contestants as they hopped off the dugout stage.Bonds also greeted his godfather, Willie Mays, after the Hall of Famer made his first appearance of the spring at the ballpark.The seven-time NL MVP is clearly more relaxed in 2007 - quite a contrast from a year ago after the release of the book Game of Shadows, which claims his doping regimen began after the 1998 season when Bonds saw the attention Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa generated in their race for the single-season home run record. Bonds, who has long denied knowingly taking performance-enhancing drugs, later broke that record with 73 homers in 2001.This year, he's still facing questions about whether he failed an amphetamines test last season - he won't comment - and the possibility he could be indicted by a federal grand jury on perjury charges.He insists he's unconcerned. Bonds, who's coming off surgery on his troublesome left elbow, played regularly in 2006 and plans to do so again.After missing all but 14 games in 2005 following three operations on his right knee, Bonds batted .270 with 26 homers and 77 RBIs in 130 games last year. He passed Babe Ruth to move into second place on the career home run list May 28.He hasn't made any predictions about when he might catch Hammerin' Hank.Giants owner Peter Magowan said Friday that he hopes both Mays and Bonds will have a role in this summer's All-Star game at AT&T Park, whether or not Bonds is actually playing in the summer classic.Mays said he wanted to talk to Magowan in the coming days about what he might do during the festivities. The 75-year-old Say Hey Kid, who has stuck close to Bonds since the slugger's father, Bobby, died in August 2003, is tied with Stan Musial for most All-Star games at 24.It's always an honor to be involved in baseball tradition, Mays said, eating lunch at a clubhouse table. I don't know what he has in mind. I just feel that I'm part of San Francisco, and whatever's going on in San Francisco, I should be part of it.Notes: Bochy said 1B Aurilia is the front-runner to bat third behind Dave Roberts and Omar Vizquel. ... 2B Ray Durham returned to the field and was trying to regain his strength two days after having the flu. He missed two workouts. ... C Eliezer Alfonzo (left side strain) and RHP Carlos Hines (sore shoulder) are improving but still could be sidelined for a couple of days. Hines is scheduled to be examined by a team doctor Tuesday.
FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): yankees star abreu out 2 weeks.
  
Yankees right fielder Bobby Abreu is expected to miss at least two weeks after straining his right oblique during batting practice Monday, an injury manager Joe Torre said won't cause the team to make a new push for Bernie Williams to report.
Torre said Abreu will be ready for opening day.He didn't feel anything until he was hitting, Torre said. It's just one of those things. I guess the good news is it's early. You can afford a couple weeks right now.Abreu was scheduled to undergo tests Monday.Torre said there are no plans to contact Williams, who rejected the Yankees' offer of a minor league contract and spring training invite.This is something that we're not looking at as long-term, Torre said of Abreu's injury. When you're dealing with two weeks in spring training, you're certainly not going to throw up any flags.After a telephone conversation during the first week of spring training Torre left two messages for Williams, but hasn't heard back.
 MLB PICKS- (associated press): marlins could start the season without number 2 starter.
                              
 
 The Florida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.Sportsbook.com have the Marlins listed at +800 to win the NL East this season.You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue, manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. We're borderline now.Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2006, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,Gonzalez said. He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.