| March 28, 2007 HOME - SPORTS NEWS MLB PLAYOFFS SPORT NEWS
FREE MLB NEWS PICKS & MLB NEWS PICKS FREE MLB PICKS & MLB PICKS
MLB
FREE MLB PICKS, MLB PICKS, FREE MAJOR BASEBALL PICKS, MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS- (associated press): peavy named opening day starter for
padres.
Jake Peavy earned his second consecutive opening-day assignment for the defending NL West
champion San Diego Padres.
Peavy was picked by manager Bud Black to start at San Francisco on April 3. The
right-hander, who was an uncharacteristic 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA in 2006, said it was an
''honor'' to be selected to head a pitching staff featuring Chris Young, Greg Maddux and
David Wells.
Peavy opened last season with a 6-1 win over the Giants.
''We have a lot of deserving guys,'' Peavy said Monday. ''It's pretty special to be
named.''
Black, who was a three-time opening-day starter with the Kansas City Royals from 1984-86,
said choosing Peavy was an easy decision.
''Jake's been a big part of this organization since he was drafted,'' Black said. ''He's a
guy who's ready for this opportunity and challenge.''
Peavy's 2.27 ERA in 2004 was the best in the majors, and he led the NL with 216 strikeouts
in 2005, when he was selected to the All-Star team. He was hampered last year by shoulder
tendinitis and a lack of run support.
FREE MLB PICKS: (associated press): sheets named opening day starter for brewers.
Brewers ace Ben Sheets will pitch the season opener for the fifth time in his career.
The Brewers start April 2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Oddsmakers have not released a
line for this game.
Sheets started four openers in a row before beginning last season on the disabled list and
missing half the season with shoulder problems. He finished last year 6-7 with a 3.82 ERA.
''I just needed to see that he was healthy,'' manager Ned Yost said. ''That's all I was
worried about.''
Sheets will be followed in the rotation by left-hander Chris Capuano, right-hander Jeff
Suppan, right-hander Dave Bush and right-hander Claudio Vargas.
Yost said he waited to announce his rotation so he wouldn't have to realign it ''if
somebody turned an ankle.''
Yost chose Bush over Vargas as the No. 4 starter, in large part because Bush won 12 games
in the fifth spot a year ago. Because of off days on the schedule, Vargas will make only
three starts in April.
Notes: C Mike Rivera cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A
Nashville. ... RHP Grant Balfour, a free agent signed in the offseason, cleared waivers,
but did not immediately accept an assignment to Nashville. Balfour has been trying to come
back from shoulder and elbow surgeries that sidelined him most of the last two seasons. ...
3B Corey Koskie returned home to Minnesota to continue therapy and rehabilitation from
post-concussion symptoms. He will open the season on the disabled list.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FREE PICKS- (associated press): pirates sanchez to miss opener.
Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Freddy Sanchez, relieved there is no damage to his right knee
other than a previously diagnosed sprained ligament, said Tuesday he is resigned to missing
opening day but hopes to return to the lineup sometime next week.
The NL batting champion plans to play in the Pirates' minor league camp Wednesday, his
first game action since he was hurt turning a double play March 6, and he won't be worrying
about the injury when he does.
''I'll go out and go as hard as I can,'' Sanchez said Tuesday. ''If I've got to play with a
little bit of pain and discomfort, so be it, as long as I know it's not going to get any
worse. ... I play the game with no fear, I like to do a lot of things with no fear and you
can't be cautious.''
BetEd has the Pirates listed at +2500 to win the National League Pennant this year.
Sanchez, who has yet to play a full season as a major league regular yet owns a batting
title, grew so frustrated with his longer-than-expected injury layoff that he sought a
second opinion Monday. Alabama-based orthopedic surgeon James Andrews performed an MRI exam
and other tests that confirmed he sprained his right medial collateral ligament.
According to Sanchez, Andrews told him he could play without further hurting the knee, as
long as no new injury occurred. That news admittedly came as a relief to Sanchez, and he
resumed working out Tuesday by hitting, throwing and doing some running in the minor league
camp.
The only hurdles left are running the bases and making the sharp cuts, turns and pivots
required to play second base. He was moved from third base, his primary position last
season, to second base when camp opened last month.
''We're coming down to crunch time and I need to push it a little more - and I want to push
it,'' Sanchez said. ''That was very, very encouraging that I'm not going to damage it any
more, that I can get out there and push it a little more. I'm going to do that and take it
from there.''
Because Sanchez was out so long, he probably can't get enough spring training at-bats to be
ready to start Monday against the Astros' Roy Oswalt in Houston. Sanchez hopes to be ready
for the Pirates' April 5-7 series in Cincinnati or, if not then, the April 9 home opener
against St. Louis.
If Sanchez is placed on the 15-day disabled list Sunday, the Pirates can backdate the move
by nine days as long as he doesn't play in a major league exhibition game. That means he
could be activated less than a week into the season.
''Maybe I miss one series,'' Sanchez said. ''If I push it now and get healthy by the (start
of the) season, I'm probably going to need some at-bats. It probably wouldn't be good to be
healthy and then the day before get thrown into the fire against Oswalt.''
What Sanchez doesn't know is how the three-week layoff will affect the performance of a
line-drive hitter whose .344 average last season was the Pirates' highest since Roberto
Clemente hit .345 in 1969. His 53 doubles were the most by a Pirates player since Hall of
Famer Paul Waner also had 53 in 1936.
Sanchez was a utility infielder at the start of last season, and didn't secure a starting
job for about a month.
''You always want to get as many at-bats and as many ground balls as you can,'' he said.
''Hopefully I can get to 100 percent before the season starts, (or) maybe I'll need a week
or whatever to get my at-bats, or maybe three days and I might feel good.''
Sanchez went through a rigorous workout program following his breakout season, one that
came relatively late into his career at age 28.
''It's very frustrating, and I'd be lying if I said it wasn't,'' he said. ''It's
disheartening a little bit, knowing I worked as hard I can to try to repeat it, to be
consistent in this league. I finally feel like I've got a starting job and this is a little
setback, but I'm going to work to get back as quick as possible and hopefully not miss too
much time.''
FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): nationals center fielder to be ready for opener.
Washington Nationals center fielder Nook Logan wants to be in the lineup opening day and
said Tuesday he thinks he can be, despite a groin injury the team has said could sideline
him through at least the season's first week.
''Just from how I feel today, I think I'll be ready to play this weekend - at Norfolk and
RFK,'' Logan said, referring to the Nationals' exhibition games against the Baltimore
Orioles on Friday at Norfolk, Va., and on Saturday at RFK Stadium.
newbodog.com has Washington at +7500 to win the NL East Division in '07.
The Nationals open the regular season Tuesday at home against the Florida Marlins.
Logan strained his right groin while running the bases during a spring training game last
Saturday. The next day, manager Manny Acta said he expected Logan to be out at least two
weeks - which would put his return no sooner than April 8.
''I can see why he would say that timetable,'' Logan said. ''But it wasn't as bad as I
thought at the beginning. Only I know how it feels.''
If Logan did begin the season on the disabled list, the Nationals probably would shift left
fielder Ryan Church to center and start rookie Kory Casto in left.
''I've got to prove to them I feel as well as I say I do,'' Logan said. ''It would be my
first opening day start, but it's not even about that. It's the fact that I want to help
the ballclub.''
MLB FREE PICKS- (associated press): wade miller named cubs fitft starter.
Manager Lou Piniella made it official Tuesday: Wade Miller will be the Chicago Cubs' fifth
starter - meaning one-time 18-game winner Mark Prior could start the season in the minor
leagues.
''He's going be our fifth starter, OK?'' Piniella said of Miller. ''He's pitched well in
camp. He's earned a spot.''
Miller, who had shoulder surgery after the 2005 season with the Red Sox, appeared in five
games with the Cubs last season. But this spring he's 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA in five starts.
The right-hander was 16-8 and 15-4 in 2001 and 2002 with the Astros.
Prior, meanwhile, has made just three appearances this spring and is 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA,
although he pitched well last week, allowing one a run in four innings.
With Kerry Wood nursing a sore shoulder and likely to start the season on the disabled
list, the Cubs will open without the two pitchers who led them to within five outs of the
World Series in 2003.
''Remember our posture here with both Prior and Wood has been the same. It hasn't changed
since we got here,'' Piniella said.
''Whenever they are ready, they're ready. I've seen some nice improvements from Mark. He's
worked hard. The other kid (Miller) pitched well. In fairness, what do you do?''
Prior is scheduled to pitch Wednesday, and Piniella said a decision on his future could be
made after the start.
''I don't know. We'll figure that out in the next couple of days. I don't know,'' Piniella
said. ''Obviously he needs to continue pitching. But I don't have an answer.''
Prior began the last three seasons on the disabled list with Achilles, elbow and shoulder
problems respectively. He was limited to nine starts a year ago with a sore shoulder.
Wood, who had a partially torn rotator cuff that he rehabbed during the offseason, has
shown some improvement since he hurt his shoulder during an inning of relief Sunday.
Piniella said there was a possibility that Wood could throw on flat ground when he was able
to tolerate it. Wood is taking medication for the shoulder, Piniella said.
''Actually the news is a little bit encouraging,'' Piniella said. ''He feels better and
that's the important thing. We'll go from there.''
Piniella said the Cubs would lean toward carrying 12 pitchers instead of an extra
outfielder, meaning Angel Guzman will be in the bullpen.
The Cubs have four outfielders in Alfonso Soriano, Matt Murton, Jacque Jones and Cliff
Floyd. Chicago has depth there because infielders Mark DeRosa and Ryan Theriot also can
switch and play the outfield. That means outfielder Angel Pagan probably will not make the
opening-day roster.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS: (associated press): pettitte does well in bullpen assignment.
Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte reported no problems one day after throwing 25 pitches in
his first bullpen session since being sidelined by back spasms.
newbodog.com lists the Yankees as a +200 favorite to win the AL Pennant this season.
Pettitte will have a full mound session Wednesday and might pitch in a minor league game
Friday or Saturday.
''Definitely didn't go backwards at all,'' Pettitte said Tuesday.
When asked if the back discomfort had completely disappeared, Pettitte only said ''I'm
feeling better. A lot better.''
The Yankees are hopeful Pettitte will be ready to make his first regular-season start.
''I think he will, but comfort is the most important thing to me,'' Yankees manager Joe
Torre said. ''So if he doesn't, it's no big deal. That's the way I feel.''
Chien-Ming Wang, who will start the season on the disabled list with a pulled right
hamstring, threw at 60- and 90-feet on level ground. The right-hander is expected to be out
until at least late April.
''I hope sooner,'' Wang said.
Jeff Karstens could resume throwing Thursday. He has been shut down since leaving a start
last Sunday after two innings with right elbow stiffness.
''I don't want to rush it,'' Karstens said. ''It's early in the year. It feels good. It
shouldn't be that bad to build back up.''
FREE MLB PICKS- (covers.com): breaking down the lefty-righty dynamics in mlb.
Baseball is unique from other sports in that there is particular attention paid to lefty
and righty pitchers and hitters. There are many reasons for this.
One is that, technically, it’s slightly easier for a left-handed batter to get to first
base on a swing, in that the hitter is already moving his body toward first base at the end
of his swing. A right-handed batter is twisting his arms and body toward third at the end
of a swing and has to reverse gears, so to speak, as he begins to run toward first.
This is a slight differential, of course, but in athletic competition, any edge can be
perceived as critical.
It’s interesting that while left-handed people make up a small percentage of the
population, they make up a huge number of batting champions in major league baseball.
Lefties Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Ted Williams, Stan Musial and George Brett all won numerous
batting titles.
Managers alter their lineups many times with lefty/righty in mind, often platooning players
simply because they hit righty or lefty pitchers better. This is why you see a manager late
in a game often bring in a lefty specialist to face one lefty hitter.
Another reason is that certain pitches can be more effective against lefties than righties.
Former Astros ace right-hander J.R. Richard had a devastating slider that was murder on
righties. The pitch broke hard down and away from a righty, so the hitter often struck out
or hit a ground ball.
Richard wasn’t as dominant on lefties, who had a better chance of at least putting the bat
on the ball of his best pitch.
Former manager Whitey Herzog was a brilliant proponent of this, as well. In his book White
Rat , he explains how he preferred certain pitches - a forkball, a curve - against certain
situations against righty and lefty hitters.
This is also why every season you see left-handed relievers who appear 100 years old still
pitching in the majors (Jesse Orosco comes to mind). Lefty specialists who can get lefty
hitters out are always in demand.
In 2004, when two left-handed starters have faced each other, the under began the year
22-4-1 in those games. Part of the reason for this may be that there are more righty
starters in the majors, so hitters are more familiar with hitting a baseball thrown from
the right side of the mound. They are less used to seeing a ball released from the left
side.
Also, managers have a tendency to sit down some lefty hitters when facing a lefty pitcher.
Cincinnati’s left-handed slugger Adam Dunn is hitting .286 against righties, but just .200
against lefties, a trend that isn't uncommon.
This doesn’t mean this trend will continue with such one-sidedness this season, but
understanding the lefty/righty dynamics in baseball is an essential element in successful
handicapping.
MLB PICKS- (associated press): Royals starting pitcher Hudson to begin season on disabled
list.
Moneyline sports can do a number on your bankroll and baseball is no exception. Today,
we’re taking a look at five important rules that will keep your head above water.
1. Avoid heavy favorites
By heavy favorites, I’m referring to teams listed at –170 or more. While these may appear
to be safe bets at first glance, in reality they’re far from it. Rarely will you find a
–200 favorite that isn’t overvalued. With upwards of 15 games on the MLB board just about
every night, there is usually much more value to be found elsewhere. A perfect example of
this rule is last year’s edition of the St. Louis Cardinals. They were heavily favored more
often than not, and despite a good overall record, they had the moneyline bettor down over
eight units on the season.
2. Don’t put too much weight in starting pitchers
Pitchers are just one part of the baseball equation. When it comes down to it, very few
starting pitchers can be relied upon consistently. Where you can find value, is looking at
current team performance. Oddsmakers overvalue certain pitchers all the time, knowing that
the public will bite. For example, Pedro Martinez was favored in all but one of his 20
starts last season. However, the Mets went just 11-9 in those games. Pedro dropped the cash
as both a –228 and –240 fave in ’06.
3. Pay attention to the schedule
Few bettors take a team's schedule into consideration when handicapping a game, but it is
definitely an important factor. There are plenty of letdown spots to be found. For
instance, last year the Boston Red Sox went on the road to face the lowly Devil Rays
followed by a trip to Kansas City. They proceeded to drop five of six games. Were they
looking ahead to series against the league-leading Tigers and AL East-leading Yankees at
Fenway in the next week? Probably. Another good spot to look out for is when a team is
wrapping up a disappointing or lengthy road trip. We tend to see a lackluster effort in the
final installment.
4. Avoid betting against streaks
While there can be value in betting against highly publicized streaks from time to time,
the bottom line is you’re going against the grain, and that’s not usually a profitable
decision. In most cases, you are better off waiting until a streak finishes to start siding
with or fading a particular team. We saw numerous double-digit streaks last season.
Whatever you do, try to avoid chasing a team on a losing streak. A long losing streak can
put you in the poorhouse in a hurry.
5. Don’t rely solely on statistics
There is a never-ending list of statistical categories tracked when it comes to baseball.
While these numbers can be a useful tool, they can also steer you in the wrong direction in
some cases. Remember, there are stats that will support either side in most matchups.
Uncovering the most important ones is critical. Some categories that I put emphasis on are:
starting pitchers' K/BB ratio, team bullpen ERA, and team batting average over the last 10
games. The lesson to be learned is, don’t blindly back a team based on numbers. Be sure to
take a look at the fundamental and situational aspects as well.
. |
