FREE MLB NEWS PICKS & MLB NEWS PICKS  FREE MLB PICKS & MLB PICKS MLB FREE MLB PICKS, MLB PICKS, FREE MAJOR BASEBALL PICKS, MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS. MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS- (covers.com): how the pros bet early season baseball. Like Gary Sheffield on a 98 mph fastball, regular season baseball comes around quickly and unexpectedly. There is no buildup between the preseason and the real thing – what was a meaningless spring training game one day is suddenly the real deal the next. We follow spring training from the day pitchers and catchers report to the day the final cuts are made, but the very nature of spring training – which basically amounts to intersquad practice – can only tell you so much about how a team is shaping up. Sure, you can read all the local newspapers, blogs and expert predictions you want. You can even watch the teams dog it on TV most days of the week. All those things provide some help in figuring out how things stand heading into the season’s first handful of games, but what do we really know? “Early in the season it's pretty much a feeling-out process,” says Sean Murphy of The Miller Group. “It usually takes a couple of weeks until you figure out where the value is going to lie.” Consensus among handicappers is not to get too excited and blow your whole bankroll on the first few weeks of the season. Betting baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the amount of profitable situations tends to open up a few miles down the road. “The most important thing is to be patient,” says Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach. “Keep an eye on early season situations as they unfold so you can profit even greater in the upcoming weeks and months of a long season.” Handicappers don’t put a lot of stock in a team’s results from last season, or even late last season – though they do recognize that oddsmakers will often use a team's final position in last year's standings as a starting point for this year’s lines. “The only thing I use last year for in the way I bet is public perception,” says Rickenbach. “In other words, the public still basically thinks of teams based on last season's results. “There is line value in looking for teams that are may be better or worse than what the overall public perception.” Sometimes it’s not about what a team did in the offseason to improve, but what it didn’t do. So much of baseball now is based on familiarity – teams that don’t change during the offseason allow opponents to use last year’s scouting reports from the very first game. “The Detroit Tigers did nothing in the offseason with the exception of grab an aging and injury-prone Gary Sheffield to help their average offense,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo. “The Tigers won’t be better and are likely going to decline based on teams knowing what to expect and not being surprised like last season.” Another thing that comes into play early in the season is weather. Many spots on the East Coast still experience cold spells, and the change in climate has a significant effect on some of the teams from warmer climates. Fargo notes that West Coast teams (not including Colorado) traveling to the East Coast (not including Florida and Atlanta) went 10-15 straight-up last year. “It’s not a huge disparity but 40 percent winning in baseball can certainly make a big difference,” says Fargo. “Starting pitching plays a big role early on and not necessarily the big name pitchers will be successful. This is due to the weather, conditioning and still being cold. On the flipside, there are pitchers who thrive in April. Looking at past year’s records in April can tell a lot.” Of note, Minnesota Twins pitcher Johan Santana has an ERA of 4.91 ERA in his three Aprils as the team’s full-time starter. His career ERA is 3.20. The San Diego Padres have also struggled the last two Aprils despite winning the last two NL West titles. San Diego is a combined 18-28 in April over the last two years. They earned this record without even playing at any of Fargo’s aforementioned “cold weather” venues during that time. FREE MLB PICKS: (covers.com): american league team batting previews. American League East Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Tampa Bay Devil Rays Toronto Blue Jays American League Central Chicago White Sox Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins American League West Los Angeles Angels Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers   MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FREE PICKS- (covers.com): national league team batting previews. National League East Atlanta Braves Florida Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals National League Central Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals National League West Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants     FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): oaklands loiza still sidelined.   Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Esteban Loaiza has a bulged disk in his neck that will delay his season debut by at least a week. A's assistant general manager David Forst said an MRI taken in Oakland, Calif., on Tuesday showed the inflamed disk was the cause of the spasms that Loaiza was having in his right trapezius muscle. ''It's not herniated. Not surgical. It's something that can be treated,'' Forst said before Tuesday's game against Seattle, echoing manager Bob Geren's belief that the injury is not serious. Loaiza, who was 11-9 last year in the first season of a three-year, $21,375,000 contract with the A's, is on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to March 25 and was scheduled to start Thursday for Triple-A Sacramento. He is eligible to come off the DL on April 9. Now, the A's No. 2 starter will not throw again until April 10 - and Forst said that will merely be a game of catch on flat ground. It is unknown when his first rehabilitation start will come, but Forst said the team still wants Loaiza to have at least one minor league outing before he is activated. ''We'll wait until after (next) Tuesday to see how he feels,'' Forst said when asked when that rehabilitation start might come. Loaiza traveled with the A's to Seattle for the season-opening series in anticipation of throwing on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. But Monday's session was called off, and the A's sent Loaiza back to the Bay Area to see San Francisco specialist Dr. Robert Rovner. Rovner prescribed physical therapy plus ice and stimulation treatments in the neck. Loaiza said Monday that the spasms and tightness in his right trapezius are worse than the similar pain he had in his left trapezius that sidelined him from last April 29 through June 8. His 11 wins after that tied for fourth-most in the AL during that span. Right-hander Joe Blanton moved up in the rotation to pitch Tuesday, when Loaiza was originally scheduled to start. Right-hander Chad Gaudin - whose 55 games for the A's last season were all in relief - is taking Blanton's usual spot Thursday at the Los Angeles Angels. Geren is leaning toward Gaudin also taking Loaiza's second turn in the rotation, April 10 at home against the Chicago White Sox. ''More than likely, we'll stick with Chad,'' Geren said. ''It might have something to do with how he pitches (Thursday), but probably not.'' MLB FREE PICKS- (associated press): cards carpenter to miss start.  Chris Carpenter will miss his next turn in the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching rotation due to right elbow inflammation. Carpenter allowed five runs in six innings of a 6-1 loss to the New York Mets in Sunday night's opener. The Cardinals said Carpenter will be evaluated over the next three days. Carpenter had been slotted to pitch again on Friday, jumping ahead of Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes to keep him on his regular routine despite two off days in the opening week. Instead, Wainwright will pitch Friday in the opener of a three-game series at Houston and Reyes will start Saturday. Kip Wells, the team's new No. 2 starter, will start the finale of that series on Sunday. Wells had been scheduled to make his debut with St. Louis on Tuesday. Oddsmakers have the St. Louis listed as a -104 pick'em with the total set at 9 1/2 for Wednesday's matchup with the Mets. Carpenter was an All-Star in each of the last two seasons, going 15-8 last year after winning the NL Cy Young Award with a 21-5 record in 2005 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS: (associated press): bonds ready to resume chase. Barry Bonds sat down in the dugout to address the media swarm for opening day, then realized he'd forgotten his own tape recorder and ran back to the clubhouse to retrieve it. ''Can you all wait?'' he said with a smile Tuesday before the San Francisco Giants hosted the San Diego Padres. ''You all got some patience? I'll be baaack!'' He needed the device in case he decided later to post anything from the interview on his Web site, www.barrybonds.com. Bonds was light and breezy before the game on a glorious Bay Area day that perfectly matched the slugger's mood. If his pursuit of the home run record is weighing on his mind, Bonds sure isn't showing it. FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): reds outfielder out for year.    Reds outfielder Chris Denorfia had surgery Tuesday to repair a torn ligament in his right elbow and is expected to be out of action about six months. Denorfia was the Reds' minor league player of the year in 2005 and appeared in 49 games for Cincinnati last season, hitting .283 with one home run and seven RBIs.   MLB PICKS- (associated press): the does and don't of betting early season baseball.                                   There are a lot of ways to bet on MLB the first time through the rotations. You can rely on Spring Training results (not recommended), you can try to project last year’s numbers into this year’s matchups (you might need a DeLorean to make this time-travel method work) or you could flip a coin (likely to yield a better result than the first two). Then there’s relying on common sense (AKA the handicappers’ way). Let’s look at some approaches, using matchups over the next couple of days to illustrate. Don’t: Place your bets too early It’s Tuesday afternoon. Vicente Padilla and Kelvim Escobar are facing each other tonight in Game 2 of the series between the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels. Some sportsbooks, however, are already offering odds for Wednesday’s Game 3, with Brandon McCarthy and Ervin Santana meeting on the hill. Sportsmemo.com baseball handicapper Rob Veno says it’s a dangerous game to bet on Game 3 before seeing how the bullpen was used (and potentially abused) in Game 2. “I’m a back-end guy when it comes to pitching,” Veno says. “I go strictly by pitch counts – if they go over 20 pitches or if they’re asked to go on back-to-back nights, those are the two red flags.” Do: Assess bullpen quality top-to bottom It's especially a concern at this time of year, when starters are less likely to go the full nine innings. “Bullpens are so situational and specialized these days that if guys are in the same role as last year and it was a good pen last season, then it should be similar scene this year,” Veno says. When roles have been rearranged, however, trouble can arise. The Seattle Mariners stayed in the AL West race longer than expected last year largely because of their surprisingly strong pen. With star setup man Rafael Soriano departed to the Atlanta Braves, however, everything changes. The Mariners won Game 1 this year behind eight strong innings from Felix Hernandez, who then handed the ball to closer J.J. Putz. What happens with the Mariners pen when starters go only five innings is anyone’s guess. Don’t: Rely on last year's head-to-head results Including the Opening Day result, the Kansas City Royals have won their backers 8.98 units over their past seven meetings with the mighty Boston Red Sox. Guaranteed money? Hardly. “If there was starting pitching dominance, then I’d definitely put something in that,” Veno admits. “But honestly I won’t put much else into last year’s results.” Wednesday’s matchup at Kauffman Stadium has Josh Beckett taking on Odalis Perez. The Royals were 1-0 against Boston when Perez started and the Red Sox were 1-2 against K.C. when Beckett started. It was Beckett, however, who shone more than Perez (2.45 ERA in an otherwise iffy season). Do: Recollect last April, but judiciously San Francisco Giants starter Matt Cain had a rough start last year, allowing nine home runs in his first 38 1/3 innings. Not surprisingly, the Giants played over the total in six of his first seven games. Cain faces Chris Young and the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, another pitcher who allowed home runs at a much higher pace early last season (with the Padres also playing over the total). But Veno says anticipating a repeat of last April, at least in this instance, would be dangerous. “Sometimes pitchers develop a reputation as a good or bad April pitcher, but I expect improvement from both of these guys over last year’s starts,” the baseball handicapper says. “Cain was a rookie last April and Young had just been traded to the National League.” Don't: Read too much into the numbers Both Cain and Young were among the MLB’s top five flyball starters. More flyballs, more chances for home runs, no? Bettors should pay attention to flyball and groundball numbers, Veno says, but mainly in relation to ball park. “Matt Cain made his first career start in Citizen’s last year and I played the over there,” Veno says. The struggling Cain allowed four dingers in the cozy Philadelphia park. “Wednesday’s game is a good pitching matchup with two guys who are still improving and who play in a division with a lot of pitcher’s parks.”