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MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS- (covers.com): most valuable mlb moneyline players.
There are so many factors that go into setting the moneyline for MLB games that rarely do
we see a single player make a huge difference. However, there are a handful of impact
position players that can send sportsbooks scrambling with a last-minute scratch.
Covers.com surveyed linesmakers and professional handicappers to find the most valuable
players to the moneyline.
Dimes
Vladimir Guerrero (Los Angeles Angels)
Guerrero is a huge factor in both hitting and fielding. The right fielder is the lone
power-hitter in the Angels lineup, hitting .386 with five home runs this season, and his
strike zone seems the same size as a kitchen table.
"There's no sense in having a report on him," Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland said of
Guerrero. "You might as well throw that right out the window. You have as good a chance to
get him out if you throw it right down the middle as if you bounce it in the dirt. He's got
just as good a chance to hit a home run if you bounce it or throw it down the middle.”
Guerrero’s rocket arm in right keeps baserunners guessing and eliminates many extra base
opportunities for Los Angeles opponents. The Angels are 20-19 without him in the lineup
since 2004, including going 0-3 this season with their slugger missing time with a wrist
injury.
Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees)
Watching A-Rod’s home run highlights have become a nightly ritual for bettors. His early
season efforts are making him an early favorite to win his third MVP award.
Rodriguez is batting .341 with a record-setting 14 home runs in April along with 34 RBI. He
has an on-base percentage of .453 and is slugging 1.053 in the first 18 games of the
season. Even with all the other talent on the Yankees roster, linesmakers still hold A-Rod
in the highest regard and not just because of his bat.
Rodriguez is one of the best gloves in the American League despite some problems with
errors last season at the hot corner. New York is 8-8 over the last two seasons with A-Rod
on the bench. He played all 162 games in 2004.
Nickels
Barry Bonds (San Francisco Giants)
Even at the ripe old age of 42, Barry Bonds still demands the respect of both pitchers and
sportsbooks. His explosive start this season has demanded even more value be put on the
left fielder as he chases the all-time home run record.
“Usually it is known the day ahead if he is going to be resting,” says Sean Murphy of The
Miller Group. “That tends to happen when the Giants play a day game following a night game.
He probably still has the greatest impact on the moneyline of any player in baseball.”
Bonds is hitting .348 this season with six home runs and 12 RBI. His on-base percentage
(.466) and slugging (.804) make up for his decrease in speed on the base paths as well as
in the outfield. Bonds has missed 213 games since 2004 and the Giants have gone 94-204
during this stretch. San Francisco is 1-1 in the two games he sat out this year.
David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez (Boston Red Sox)
On their own, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are still very dangerous hitters. But hitting
next to each other in the lineup has forced opposing pitchers to pick their poison when
facing the Red Sox.
Ortiz is batting .275 with six home runs and 17 RBI this season while Ramirez has started
slowly. Manny is hitting just .209 with two home runs but brought his average up this past
week against New York and Toronto.
In the last three years, Boston is 14-18 with Ortiz out of the lineup. The Red Sox are
32-25 in the 57 games Ramirez has missed since 2004.
Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals)
An horrific spring training that leaked over into the regular season has bumped Albert
Pujols’ moneyline impact down a bit but oddsmakers wouldn’t dare overlook the 2005 NL MVP.
Pujols has slowly improved his hitting since the start of the season, moving his batting
average to .229. He has five home runs and 12 RBI so far, which is nothing close to last
April’s record-setting pace.
In the last two seasons Pujols has hit 90 home runs and tallied 254 RBI. St. Louis is 18-12
over the last three years when Pujols is on the shelf.
Other notables
Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners)
He doesn’t miss many but when Ichiro is out of the game, bettors should take notice. He
hasn’t started in six games the last three years and the Mariners are 0-6 during these rare
absences (four of those games he pinch hit).
Ichiro has led the American League in hitting three times during his career and is looking
to repeat this feat again this season. He is now batting .323 with nine RBI and is also a
superb outfielder, winning a Gold Glove in each of his six seasons.
Carlos Beltran (New York Mets)
The 30-year-old is starting to crack the elite list of players that oddsmakers bank on when
setting moneylines. He hit .275 last year with 41 home runs, getting over a sub-par 2005.
This season Beltran is batting .351 with four home runs and 19 RBI in the Mets' first 18
games.
With all the talent in New York’s lineup, his contributions don’t always go noticed. But
his steady bat and excellent fielding are making Beltran the brightest star on the roster.
The Mets are 17-19 in the last two seasons when he is out of the starting lineup.
Ryan Howard (Philadelphia Phillies)
Howard is another slugger having a slow start to the season but you can’t deny the
youngster's sheer power at the plate. Last season he crushed 58 home runs, had a slugging
percentage of .659 and hit .313.
Howard has battled a knee injury this year and is hitting just .218 with two home runs.
Since emerging as a legit star in 2005, Howard has missed 22 games. Philadelphia is 14-8
during these games, including a 2-1 record in the three games Howard missed this year.
FREE MLB PICKS: (associated press): randy johnson struggle vs former team.
Randy Johnson returned to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night and was far from
perfect.
Six months after back surgery, the Big Unit gave up six runs in five innings against San
Diego, his first start for the Diamondbacks since 2004.
Johnson struck out seven but gave up six hits, including two home runs and two doubles. He
walked four - two intentionally - and hit two batters. He threw 97 pitches, 53 for strikes.
The 43-year-old Johnson pitched a perfect game for Arizona three years ago, then spent two
frustrating seasons with the New York Yankees, failing to win both of his postseason
starts. Johnson, who needs 20 victories for 300, pitched in Phoenix for the first time
since Oct. 2, 2004, when he defeated the Padres.
He showed good command early but couldn't protect a pair of leads.
In the first inning, Johnson struck out leadoff man Marcus Giles on a 3-2 pitch, got Jose
Cruz Jr. on a long fly to right field and then struck out Brian Giles looking. Johnson
received a standing ovation from the sparse crowd behind the dugout as he walked off the
mound.
After he was staked to a 2-0 lead, Johnson gave up a two-out, two-run homer to Adrian
Gonzalez in the third. The Diamondbacks took a 3-2 lead in the bottom half, but Johnson
gave up a tying homer to Cruz in the fifth. Khalil Greene added a three-run double.
Johnson faced fellow 43-year-old David Wells. At a combined age of 87 years and 300 days,
Johnson and Wells became the oldest pair of left-handers to start a major league game. The
previous mark was set April 12, when 44-year-old Jamie Moyer of Philadelphia opposed
41-year-old Tom Glavine of the New York Mets.
Johnson no longer has the overpowering fastball that helped him win five Cy Young Awards,
four with the Diamondbacks. And after one time through the batting order the Padres began
to tee off.
San Diego won the game 10-5 as a +135 road underdog. The game played over the 8 1/2-run
total
FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): a-rod wants to stay in new york.
Alex Rodriguez's torrid start has reaffirmed his intentions for after this season: He wants
to stay in pinstripes.
Rodriguez, whose 14 homers are tied for the most ever in April, said Tuesday that he has no
plans to leave the New York Yankees after the season, when the third baseman can opt of his
contract.
newbodog.com lists the Yankees as a +300 favorite to win the AL Pennant this season. The
Boston Red Sox are also listed at +300.
''I want to stay in New York, no matter what,'' Rodriguez said in the Yankees' third-base
dugout before Tuesday night's game at Tampa Bay.
''I love New York. It's the greatest place for me to play.''
Rodriguez is entering the seventh season of his $252 million, 10-year contract, a deal he
signed with the Texas Rangers. He can terminate the agreement after the season, forfeit the
$72 million owed in the final three years and become a free agent.
''Abilitywise, we certainly want him here,'' Yankees manager Joe Torre said. ''Sitting in
the middle of our lineup and making the statement he is right now, we certainly don't want
him to go anywhere. That's without question. I'd like to believe he's going to be here.''
Rodriguez entered Tuesday night's game at Tampa Bay hitting .400 with a league-leading 34
RBIs in 18 games, and he's already matched the record for April homers set by Albert Pujols
last year.
When asked if he could explain his start, Rodriguez said simply, ''No.''
''I know you guys are looking for some profound answers, but I don't have them,'' Rodriguez
said. ''I'm having as much fun as I can. I'm trying to keep it simple. Just try to prolong
it as long as possible and enjoy it.''
MLB FREE PICKS- (associated press): jeter leaves game after being hit by pitch.
New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter left Tuesday night's game against Tampa Bay after
being hit in the leg with a first-inning pitch by the Devil Rays' Scott Kazmir.
Tampa Bay won the game 6-4 as a +140 home underdog. The game pushed the 10-run total.
Jeter was plunked on the side of his left leg, just above the knee. After being checked by
a trainer and talking to manager Joe Torre, the Yankees captain walked to first base and
remained in the game until New York took the field for the bottom of the first.
Jeter was replaced at shortstop by Miguel Cairo.
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS: (associated press): griffey back in lineup for reds.
Ken Griffey Jr. returned to the Cincinnati Reds' lineup Tuesday after missing four starts
with diverticulitis.
Oddsmakers list the Reds as +130 underdogs against the Cardinals. The total is set at 8
1/2.
Griffey's only action during that time was a pinch-hit appearance against the Phillies on
Sunday. His condition, an inflammation of the colon, was diagnosed about six months ago.
Manager Jerry Narron said Griffey would be day to day for the time being.
''I know it can be very serious,'' manager Jerry Narron said. ''If he takes the medication
and follows the diet, he should be fine.''
Griffey was batting .275 with no homers and seven RBIs, and was tied for Reggie Jackson for
10th on the career home runs list with 563. He missed most of the spring schedule while
recovering from a broken left hand sustained in
FREE MLB PICKS- (covers.com): 4/25 hot & cold pitchers.
HOT
Curt Schilling (Boston Red Sox) - Schilling takes the mound for the Red Sox tonight against
the Baltimore Orioles. Schilling enters this contest with a solid 2-1 record with a 3.81
ERA and 1.12 WHIP but is looking to improve on his last start, a ND against the New York
Yankees on Friday. Schilling likes playing the Orioles, posting victories in his last four
starts and allowing more than three earned runs just once over that period.
C.C. Sabathia (Cleveland Indians) - Sabathia puts his 3-0 mark on the line against the
inconsistent Texas Rangers at Jacobs Field tonight. Sabathia has been impressive this
season, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP and his numbers at home have been especially
amazing. The left-hander is 2-0 at Jacobs Field with a blistering 1.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
The Indians are 45-16 mark against teams with losing records when Sabathia takes the hill.
Tim Hudson (Atlanta Braves) - Hudson has come blazing out of the gate in '07, allowing just
two runs over 29 innings and he carries an opponent batting average of .165, which has
resulted in a 3-0 record with an unbelievable 0.62 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Hudson takes his
impressive statistics on the road tonight against the Florida Marlins and if history is in
any indication, the Marlins could be in tough against the Braves. Hudson is 7-0 all time
against the Fish and has not given up more than three earned runs since 2003.
COLD
Chad Durbin (Detroit Tigers) - Durbin has started three games for the Tigers this season,
resulting in two ND's and a 0-1 record. Durbin faces the Chicago White Sox for the second
time in five days tonight at U.S Cellular Field. If that isn't bad enough, the right-hander
has a towering 10.54 ERA with a 1.90 WHIP and has lost four consecutive games to the White
Sox dating back to 2002 when he was a member of the Kansas City Royals.
John Patterson (Washington Nationals) - Patterson, who continues to struggle since
undergoing forearm surgery last season, leads the Washington Nationals into Citizens Bank
Park tonight to battle the Philadelphia Phillies. Patterson allowed three runs and seven
hits over four-plus innings of work Thursday against the Phillies, resulting in his third
loss of the season and dropping his record to 1-3 with a 4.37 ERA in six career starts
versus Philadelphia.
Zach Duke (Pittsburgh Pirates) - Duke takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight
against the Houston Astros at PNC Park. The third-year starter has struggled this season
since starting the campaign 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA. Duke went 0-2 with a 21.00 ERA in
consecutive losses to the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants. He's had trouble
throughout his career against the Houston Astros, posting a 1-5 overall record.
MLB PICKS- (covers.com): mlb bettors looking at tigers tough road schedule.
We haven’t heard this much bashing of a West Coast trip since the East-West hip-hop wars of
the early 90’s.
Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland exploded at reporters Tuesday, expressing disapproval of
a West Coast travel schedule that forces the Tigers to fly to Los Angeles and then Chicago
in 48-hour period this week.
"That's a total joke, coming to the West Coast four times in a year," Leyland told MLB.com.
"You can quote me on that. That's a total joke. We're not in [Los Angeles'] division.
Coming to the West four times is a total joke, I don't care who makes the schedule. I don't
care who writes it. It's a joke."
Detroit finished a grueling three-game series with the Chicago White Sox on Sunday
afternoon and was forced to fly more than 2000 miles to Los Angeles that evening for
Monday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels. Following the quick two-game series in
California (in which Game 2 went 10 innings), the Tigers had to again fly out late, this
time on Tuesday to head back to Chicago to face the White Sox.
The constant travel has kept the Tigers on the move since Friday night, when they opened
the series with Chicago. Following an extra-innings loss to the Kansas City Royals the game
before, Detroit played two more extra-inning games against the ChiSox including the
12-inning 6-5 win before jumping on the plane to Los Angeles. Tuesday's game went into
extras after the Tigers came back from seven runs, only to lose in the 10th.
The league plans most West Coast road trips around two or three series and the visiting
team generally has two days off after the trip to return home and rest before the next
game. This year, the Tigers will make four trips west with little time between their return
and upcoming games.
"Never, never like this, not in the 10 years I've been playing," first baseman Sean Casey
said of the schedule. "Guys were basically asking each other on the plane, 'What are we
doing it like this for?'"
To save his starting pitchers from fatigue, Leyland sent right-hander Chad Durbin and
left-hander Nate Robertson to Chicago ahead of the team. While the other Tigers will be
battling jet lag, both starters will be trying to stay focused on this week’s starts in the
absence of the team atmosphere.
“This comes down to experience in my opinion. For a young hurler it could be an issue,”
says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “The biggest issue in my opinion about this whole
thing is that Detroit needs solid starts (versus Los Angeles) because its bullpen has now
gone 17 innings in the past four games.”
Durbin, who is scheduled to pitch on tonight against Chicago, is 0-1 in his three starts
this season. He has a 10.54 ERA and hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in all three
games. Robertson will get the nod on Thursday. He has a 2-1 record in four starts this year
with a 2.39 ERA and 17 strikeouts.
Oddsmakers have the Tigers listed as +126 road underdogs with the total set at 10-runs. The
White Sox will start left-handed pitcher John Danks, who is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA.