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MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS- (covers.com): di yankees derail bosox wakefield.
Ah, the ups and downs of a knuckleballer.
Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield posted an AL-leading 1.79 ERA in a 4-3 start to the season,
never allowing more than three earned runs. Since then Wakefield has lost four of his last
five, giving up 26 runs in the process to balloon his ERA to 4.22. Two of those losses came
in the span of 10 days against the New York Yankees, with Wakefield giving up 14 earned
runs.
In fact, Wakefield is now 0-3 with a 10.93 ERA against the Yankees this year.
"I just didn't have it tonight," Wakefield said after his second blowout loss to the
Yankees. "I couldn't throw strikes, couldn't throw my fastball for strikes and pretty much
stunk it up tonight. And I am embarrassed about it and disappointed in my outing."
Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach says Wakefield’s poor form against New York is not a major
shock.
"He faced the Yankees twice during this bad stretch. Last season the Yanks also gave
Wakefield some trouble so two poor starts against them really can't be viewed as a big
surprise," says Rickenbach.
One thing that is surprising is Wakefield’s inability to bounce back from those defeats to
New York, and it remains to be seen if this is a temporary glitch or a season-long
struggle.
Covers Expert Dave Malinsky thinks Boston’s upcoming schedule will help, "We can not be
sure yet that his form is falling off; it might just be a case of having faced the wrong
lineup."
"We will learn a lot in the next start or two – I would not be surprised to see him bounce
right back again, since he will be going against teams that do not have much experience at
all against his knucklers."
There were some signs of improvement in Wakefield’s latest start, against the Oakland A’s.
He managed to strike out a season-high eight hitters and walked just two on Wednesday
night. The three runs he allowed were the fewest he'd given up in a start since May 10, but
he still took the loss to drop his record to 5-7.
"As far as how to bet Wakefield coming up I would pay special attention to the opposition,"
Rickenbach adds. "If it's a stadium where he's struggled or if it's against a team who has
hitters he has struggled against then take heed."
"Otherwise, Wakefield is very likely to resume his early-season success in the very near
future."
Wakefield’s next start comes at Fenway Park against the Colorado Rockies tonight, with the
Red Sox set as heavy –180 favorites. The knuckleballer is 1-3 with a 6.46 ERA in four
starts in Boston this season.
FREE MLB PICKS: (associated press): reds pitcher has season ending surgery
Reds pitcher Eric Milton is scheduled to have reconstructive elbow surgery Friday, almost
certainly ending his season.
It's possible the left-hander will never throw another pitch for the Reds. He can become a
free agent when his $25.5 million, three-year contract expires this fall.
Belmont.com lists the Reds as +15000 longshots to win the NL Pennant.
Milton was 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA in six starts this season. He went on the 15-day disabled
list with inflammation in his left elbow on May 9, the second consecutive year he was
hampered by elbow problems. Milton had season-ending surgery to clean out the same elbow
last Sept. 22.
This year, Milton told the team about his sore elbow after he pitched 5 1-3 innings in a
7-6 loss to Houston on May 8. Tests the next day detected inflammation.
Team spokesman Rob Butcher said Monday he didn't know when doctors determined that Milton
had a damaged ligament in his elbow and would require Tommy John surgery.
The 31-year-old Milton is 16-27 with Cincinnati since signing with the Reds before the 2005
season. He gave up an NL-leading 40 homers that year.
FREE MLB PICKS- (associated press): cubs put ramirez on dl.
Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez was put on the 15-day disabled list Monday and Chicago
reinstated outfielder Cliff Floyd from the bereavement list.
Sportsbook.com lists the Cubs at +3000 to win the World Series.
Ramirez, batting .299 with 13 homers and 39 RBIs, has tendinitis in his left knee. He was
hurt running to first base in a game at Milwaukee on June 6 and was placed on the DL
retroactive to June 7.
''Our doctors felt that just putting him on the DL and giving him full rest and treatment
would be the best for the player,'' manager Lou Piniella said.
The 34-year-old Floyd is batting .306 with three home runs and 23 RBIs in 42 games. He was
placed on the bereavement list before Friday night's game in Atlanta because of his
father's illness.
MLB FREE PICKS- (associated press): oakland buck hurt in giants series.
Oakland Athletics left fielder Travis Buck left Sunday's game against the San Francisco
Giants with a bruised right thumb in the fifth inning.
Buck hurt himself making a diving catch on a fly ball by Barry Bonds in the fourth inning.
Buck initially backed up on the fly, but the ball was hit off the end of the bat and died
quickly. Buck recovered to make a sliding catch, rolling over before showing the umpire the
ball.
He stayed in the game for the rest of the inning before being lifted for pinch hitter Jack
Cust in the fifth. Cust remained in the game in left field.
The injury is just the latest for an A's outfielder. Milton Bradley went on the disabled
list for the third time this season Friday with an injured calf. Mark Kotsay, Bobby Kielty
and Chris Snelling have also had stints on the DL
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PICKS: (associated press): tampa bay releases reliver.
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays released reliever Shinji Mori on Monday.
An All-Star in Japan, Mori agreed to a $1.4 million, two-year contract with Tampa Bay in
January 2006 but never threw a pitch for the Devil Rays. Two months later, he tore the
labrum in his right shoulder during his spring training debut in a minor league game.
The 32-year-old right-hander was a five-time All-Star with the Seibu Lions of the Pacific
League in Japan.
FREE MLB PICKS- (covers.com): nationals a good bet.
1. MLB – Washington Nationals
In May the Washington Nationals played 28 games and started all of them as underdogs. If
you had bet the Nats on the runline you would have won on the 13 occasions that they were
outright winners that month.
You would also have won on five other occasions when they managed to keep a game within one
run, leading to an impressive 18 of 28 record if you had bet Washington consistently.
So far in June the Nationals have won four of their nine games – all but one as underdogs –
and have managed to keep two others within one run.
MLB PICKS- (covers.com): top 5 mlb under umpires.
An overlooked aspect of a baseball game is also one of the most basic: Who calls balls and
strikes? Some umpires have notoriously small strike zones that result in longer and higher
scoring games. Other umps seem more sympathetic to the plight of the pitcher.
It is these latter umps who make life a lot more difficult for batters, leading to lower
totals. They can also help make money for astute bettors willing to bet on the under.
1. Jeff Nelson (over/under record in games officiated: 2-10)
Named top prospect at the Joe Brinkman Umpiring School in 1989, Jeff Nelson has worked as
an umpire in both the American and National Leagues since 2000.
Nelson has felt the wrath of many major league managers due to his generous strike zone.
Most recently, Yankees manager Joe Torres lost his cool after a call by Nelson in their 3-1
loss to the Angels.
"The ball was in the other batter’s box," said Torre in the New York Post. "Then the umpire
has the nerve to argue with Abreu. I’ve never been one to blame umpires, but I don’t know
what he could have possibly been looking at."
Nelson is certainly a pitcher-friendly umpire, with just under 64 percent of his calls
being strikes.
In 12 games with Nelson at home plate there was an average of less than five runs scored.
The number has come in under the total on 10 occasions. Last season, his over/under record
came in at a stingy 12-20.
2. Mike Muchlinski (over/under record: 1-6)
Muchlinski first got involved with umpiring during his junior year at the University of
Washington and worked his way up through the minor leagues, becoming a major league
official after the minor league umpires' strike last year.
With a strike percentage of less than 62 percent and an average of 7 runs scored in his
games so far, his strike zone is at times less than generous. But his over/under record of
1-6 makes interesting reading for bettors.
When Muchlinski officiates there are an average of 9.7 strikeouts and a very low 1.3 home
runs per game.
3. Jim Wolf (over/under record: 3-10)
A brother of Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Randy Wolf, Jim Wolf has been a major league
umpire since 1999 after several years working the Arizona Rookie League.
In 13 games officiated this season, Wolf has an over/under record of 3-10, with an average
of less than seven runs scored per game.
Wolf calls strikes for just under 65 percent of pitches thrown and averages around 13
strikeouts per game. Batters only manage a single home run on average in games that Wolf
calls.
4. Larry Poncino (over/under record: 3-8)
Poncino has served as a major league umpire for the past 14 years, working the League
Championship Series in 1998, 2003 and 2005. He also umpired in the California, Texas and
Pacific Coast Leagues.
With an average 8.5 runs scored in games that he officiates, Poncino is not an obvious
choice to make the list of under umpires. Yet, with an average of 13.4 strikeouts, combined
with a strike percentage of 63 percentage in games he calls, most pitchers would be
delighted to have him.
Also helping his under statistics is the fact that in five of his games so far this season
the total has been set at nine runs or higher, so look for a higher total if you are
factoring this umpire into your betting.
5. Jerry Layne (over/under record: 1-5)
An experienced MLB umpire, Jerry Layne has officiated the 2005 World Series, two All-Star
games and three National League Championship Series to date.
Layne has officiated games that have stayed under the total in five of six occasions this
season - with the total set at a very low seven in the one game that went over.
His strike zone is not too easy on pitchers, who average of 13 strikeouts and 8.4 walks per
game. Also, the 2.6 home runs that batters have managed when he officiated is on the higher
end of the league average.
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