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mlb free picks- (covers.com) mlb hot and cold streaks for august 29, 2007.
HOT Cincinnati Reds
It’s probably too late for the Reds to make a postseason push, being 11 games out of the National League wild card and 6 ½ back of the NL Central lead. But
Cincy is finishing the year with a bang.
The Big Red Machine has won six straight heading into Tuesday and eight of their last 10 contests. The big-swinging Cincinnati lineup is averaging almost
seven runs per game and has played over the total eight times during this stretch.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox's destruction of the Chicago White Sox this past weekend was a reminder for the other playoff-contending teams in the American League – sooner or
later, you’ll have to play Boston.
The BoSox have won seven of their last 10 games heading into this week’s series with the New York Yankees, including the four-game sweep of Chicago in which
they scored 46 total runs. Over the past week, Boston is hitting .317 at the plate and has a collective ERA just above 2.00.
San Francisco Giants
See what a little youth can do? Since calling up some prospects and making Rajai Davis and Dan Ortmeier part of the everyday lineup, the Giants have new
life. They've won eight of their last 10 contests including five straight victories heading into Tuesday.
San Francisco’s successful stretch is driven by its solid pitching and new-found pop in the order that has scored six runs per game in those eight wins.
That's almost two more scores than its season average. The Giants have a team ERA of 2.81 over the last seven days and are batting .264.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians’ recent run put some space between them and the rest of the AL Central. Cleveland is 2 ½ games ahead of the Detroit Tigers after winning seven of
its last 10 games, reeling off three straight W’s heading into Tuesday.
The Tribe has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of those contests and has a collective team ERA of 3.27 over the past week, holding opponents to a .249
batting average against.
COLD
Florida Marlins
It’s tough to pinpoint the exact reason why Florida has lost 12 of its last 13 games. Poor pitching, careless fielding and lack of production have all played
a part in the Fish’s flop. It's safe to say that Florida is now going through the motions since dropping 17 games out of the NL East lead.
The Marlins have a 6.67 ERA over the past seven days and teams are hitting .333 off their arms. Florida has conceded nine unearned runs during this time and
are batting a dismal .253 with little help from struggling slugger Miguel Cabrera, who has gone 2-for-25.
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee’s problems outside of Miller Park continue (25-40 on the season) after the Brewers finished 2-4 on their latest road trip. Milwaukee has lost seven
of its last 10 games and is 1 ½ games back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central race heading into their three-game series this week.
The Brewers are only a half-game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the division and have suffered from this slump for much of the second half of the
season. Since the All-Star break, Milwaukee is 16-26 with a NL-worst 5.52 ERA.
Washington Nationals
Washington is another club struggling on the road this season. Its record away from RFK Stadium dropped to 27-40 on the year after going 3-5 on its current
10-game road swing.
The Nats have lost seven of their last 10 games and have allowed almost 6 ½ runs per game during these defeats. Over the past seven days, Washington has a
collective ERA over 6.00 and is doing little to balance that out in the batter’s box.
Baltimore Orioles
The O’s are still reeling from the 30-run haymaker the Texas Rangers hit them with last week. The loss started Baltimore on a six-game losing streak where
they've been outscored 70-20.
The Orioles have lost their last three series since taking two games against the Yankees in mid-August. In the past week, they've batted .249 at the plate
with an even more disgusting team ERA of just a shade under 10.00
mlb free picks- (covers.com) baseballs most overrated betting stats.
A quick comparison of Matt Cain’s and Claudio Vargas’ records this season and you would assume that Milwaukee’s righty, at 10-4, was the smart bet when
compared to Cain’s 6-13 tally.
The truth is that Vargas has only one win in five starts this month while Cain is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA. A pitcher's win/loss record is just one of the many
stats that can mislead bettors as the regular season rolls into its final month.
Here are a few others:
Earned run average
The be all and end all of pitching statistics becomes less useful every time it's recalculated and can mislead bettors who should be looking at more short-
term stats.
Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner isn’t a fan of ERA when it comes to setting prices on matchups. He argues the stat is unfair because it judges a
starting pitcher's performance over nine innings, which they rarely work in one game.
“A long time ago I made a point to the Society for American Baseball Research that ERA is a wasted statistic,” says Korner. “They never took me seriously
about it, but ERA is my No. 1 beef.”
Korner believes the stat should be calculated by dividing earned runs by innings pitched and then, instead of multiplying that by a full nine innings, which
is the current equation, it should be divided by the pitcher's average innings pitched.
As an example of Korner’s theory, a starting pitcher who throws six innings and allows three earned runs (the required work for a quality start) will have a
4.50 ERA, which is considered fairly high. Under his revamped equation, if that pitcher puts in the same effort and averages seven innings per start over the
season, his 3.50 ERA is more reflective of his work.
“That is a better number for total bettors to use,” says Korner of his proposed ERA.
Batting average
Batting average is the first statistic bettors jump to when gauging a hitter or team offense. But despite the prominence of the stat – as popular as ERA is
to gauge pitchers – some handicappers ignore batting average altogether.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who are hitting only .247 this season (worst in the National League), is baseball’s second-most lucrative team (16.93 units).
Arizona also has a horrible on-base percentage (3.16) and averages just over four runs per game.
Lee Kostroski of Covers Experts admits the D-Backs are a bit of a head-scratcher when it comes to their offensive numbers, but he points to the team’s extra
-base hits (392), stolen bases (81 SB%), sacrifice flies (51, most in NL) and the fact they rarely hit into double plays.
“What has to be understood is that there are many ways to be a good baseball team,” says Kostroski.
He says a team's worth is a combination of factors.
“Relying on any one statistic too heavily will get you in trouble.”
Career stats
Banking on a pitcher’s performance in 1995 versus the Montreal Expos seems like a ludicrous handicapping practice. But anyone who has ever taken a player’s
career stats into consideration when wagering is guilty of just that.
A veteran hurler's 13-4 career record against the Pirates may be an interesting tidbit, but these types of career stats hold less water than a dog dish at
Mike Vick’s house. Players with these types of lifetime numbers are likely in the twilight of their careers and a far cry from the player they were when they
achieved the majority of their wins.
Also, the teams they’ve built these numbers against change their look every year. A club in 2007 may have a roster containing a mere five precent of the
players from the same club's roster five years ago. Same franchise, different lineup. They can’t be compared.
“Overuse of career stats is a real problem,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “(Bettors) must understand that it's all about current form and current
matchups. This is what needs to be analyzed.”
A recent example involves New York Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina’s start against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night. The Moose came into the game with a 17-6
career record and 2.70 ERA in his 30 starts versus Detroit. End result? The 16-year veteran was shelled for six runs in three innings in a 16-0 Tigers
victory.
WHIP (walks + hits, divided by innings pitched)
Much like earned run average, some sharp bettors believe WHIP is an unfair statistic. While it is valuable in short cycles, telling you how a pitcher has
performed, it doesn’t tell the full story.
A pitcher can give up six hits and two walks in six innings and all of those hits could be singles, giving him a WHIP of 1.33. Another pitcher can put up the
same numbers with the exception that the hits are all home runs and doubles, but he records the very same 1.33 WHIP.
“Wagers aren't paid off on the WHIP,” says professional handicapper David Jones. “What does it really matter if all those runners are getting stranded?”
Arizona starting pitcher Doug Davis has a mediocre WHIP of 1.57 this season, but he's recorded 17 quality starts, tied for eighth in the National League.
He's just one quality start behind Cy Young contender Brandon Webb, who has the NL’s seventh best WHIP (1.16).
Fielding percentage
Judging a player’s defensive skills by using fielding percentage ((Put outs + assists) divided by (Put outs + assists + errors)) is a double-edge sword. It
is can sometimes skew how bettors view a very good fielder.
There are players who rate high in fielding percentage but are not necessarily great fielders. They have limited range and while they field the balls hit
right to them, they don’t get to many balls outside of that.
Players with great range, on the other hand, can have a low fielding percentage because they make the occasional error when making a tough play other
fielders wouldn't even get to.
“They can get penalized for an error on a play that would have been a hit for many other fielders,” says lines consultant and handicapper David Malinsky.
“The end result of a runner reaching base is the same, but the way that it's charted is much different.”
mlb picks- (covers.com) red sox-yankees rivalry makes for touchy betting totals. After a near two-month hiatus, the greatest rivalry in sports returns to the diamond this week when the Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to face the New
York Yankees.
With the American League playoff race at full speed heading into September, the media circus surrounding Yankee Stadium will be intense. Baseball fans won’t
be able to turn the channel, flip the page, or surf the web without getting drawn into this classic grudge match.
But for most gaming industry types, Red Sox-Yankees is just another series on the schedule. Oddsmakers are aware of the attention these teams get but do a
great job separating the hype from the numbers, especially when setting the total.
Both Boston and New York have talented, deep lineups that rank amongst the best offenses in the majors. When these two collide, average bettors can be
tempted into playing the over, which has cashed in four straight meetings.
According to Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner, the media blitz may fool the public but wise guys won’t be swayed by the barrage of coverage. Korner,
who sent out a total of 9 ½ for Tuesday’s Game 1, takes the same approach to every game despite how hyped the lineups are. He puts more weight in the
starters (Daisuke Matsuzaka and Andy Pettitte on Tuesday) than anything.
The Yankees are listed as -114 favorites.
“Once the first game goes, we can line compare for the other two and look at how the games go and results,” says Korner. “We make the entire series’ prices
in advance, so we will make adjustments before the next game depending how the (Game 1) results play out.”
The Red Sox and Yankees have played over in 13 of their past 20 meetings with an average combined score of 11.65, toppling an average total slightly more
than 10 runs. The highest number set for these games was 11, while the lowest total was nine runs when Pettitte and Curt Schilling started back on May 23
this year.
“Because the hitters are so familiar with the pitchers I do believe this favors the overs in their matchups,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts.
“However, I also believe this is definitely factored into the line on the totals. When these two offenses square off there tends to be some crazy results.”
Boston’s offense had a day off before traveling to New York. It scored and astonishing 46 runs over a four-game series with the Chicago White Sox this past
weekend, batting .333 with seven home runs.
The Red Sox are averaging 9.6 runs per game in their last eight victories. In August, they are hitting .296 and driving in over six runs per contest. Boston
has gone over the total in 15 of its 25 games this month.
“You have to go team-by-team and Boston is hot, but this series (with the Yankees) is totally different from Chicago,” says Korner. “You can’t take too much
to heart what happens in a series with a team that is out of it like the White Sox.”
The Yankees, who trail the Red Sox by 7 ½ games in the AL East as of Monday, are only two games out of the AL wild card spot. New York’s power at the plate
this month is the reason for its drastic second-half turnaround.
The Bronx Bombers are batting .310 in the month of August and driving in 6.79 runs per contests. In the 24 games this month, New York has an over/under
record of 14-9-1 and leans toward the over at home with a season tally of 32-28-5 at Yankee Stadium.
If both offenses continue their August forms this week, books could bump up the Game 2 and Game 3 totals into the double-figure range. Some handicappers
don’t have a problem making plays on the over when the total skyrockets but others are more hesitant.
“From a personal standpoint any time it gets into double figures there are some headaches,” says lines consultant and handicapper David Malinsky. “Once a
total goes past 10 runs it means that not only must the starters be hit hard, but the bullpens also have to give up runs as well.”
The pitching staffs for both teams have remained fairly constant with their season numbers this month. Boston has a collective team ERA of 3.62 in August and
will give the ball the Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett (12-11 over/under) tonight and veteran hurler Curt Schilling (9-10 over/under) in Thursday’s series
finale.
The Yankees 5.04 team ERA in August is above their season number but they have received improved efforts from their bullpen this month. New York counters
with aging arm Roger Clemens (7-7 over/under) in Game 2 and right-hander Chien-Ming Wang (12-9 over/under) for Game 3.
Oddsmakers have set the total at 9 1/2 for Tuesday's series opener.
mlb free picks- (associated press) yankees pull mussina from rotation. After winning 247 games in the major leagues, Mike Mussina lost his spot in the New York Yankees' rotation Tuesday.
Bodog.com lists the Yankees at +300 to win the World Series.
Following three terrible starts in a row, the 38-year-old right-hander was told by manager Joe Torre that he'll be passed over for his next scheduled start
Saturday against Tampa Bay.
''He was disappointed, naturally. This was very difficult for me,'' Torre said. ''We have relied on him every year since he's been here.''
The Yankees will call up touted prospect Ian Kennedy, a first-round draft pick last year, from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to pitch against the last-place
Devil Rays in the middle of a pennant race.
How long Kennedy stays in the rotation will depend on how well he pitches.
''It's basically what we're getting from that spot. That's what you look at first,'' Torre said.
Mussina refused comment as he walked out of the clubhouse following New York's 5-3 victory over Boston on Tuesday night.
Torre didn't say whether he would consider using Mussina out of the bullpen. The manager said he spoke to Mussina and said: '''Keep doing what you're doing.
Keep doing your work. Keep doing your throwing so you don't lose that, the arm strength part of it.'''
Not long ago, Mussina was the team's top starter, but he has faded fast. After going 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA last season, he is 8-10 with a 5.53 ERA this year.
He has a 17.69 ERA in his past three starts, struggling with velocity and control.
Kennedy, who pitched for Scranton last Saturday, is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in six starts at Triple-A. The 22-year-old right-hander played college ball at
Southern California.
''He's got great mound presence,'' said Yankees rookie Joba Chamberlain, who called Kennedy his best friend. ''He understands how to pitch and how to get
outs. He's going to come up and do a great job. It's going to be exciting to see.''
Before the game, Torre said he wanted to speak with Mussina about his recent struggles before making a decision. He said the pitcher ''earned that
conversation'' because of ''who he is and what he's done.''
''I just want to hear how he feels, and from there we'll talk about what we're going to do,'' Torre said before the game.
''Some conversations are difficult to have,'' he added. ''I hope he makes it easy on me.''
Mussina's last three starts have been particularly alarming. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 9 2-3 innings spanning two outings against the hard-hitting
Detroit Tigers and one against the Los Angeles Angels.
Before this slump, Mussina won four straight starts - giving up eight runs in all - and improved to 8-7.
Has he run out of gas? Does he need a breather?
Or, is he completely finished? That's certainly what Yankees fans are afraid of, especially since Mussina has a year remaining on his $23 million, two-year
contract.
Mussina and Torre have both said they think the right-hander has more productivity left, but the Yankees decided they couldn't afford to wait for him to find
his form.
New York heads into the final month of the season fighting for a playoff spot, so every game is crucial. The Yankees began the day two games behind Seattle,
the AL wild-card leader. With their victory over Boston, they pulled within seven games of the first-place Red Sox in the AL East.
''You like to be loyal to all your players. But loyalty to all 25 comes before loyalty to any individual,'' Torre said.
The manager added that he spoke to Mussina recently about the possibility of skipping a turn if he thought that might benefit him.
''I know he's probably looked at some video to see if there's anything with his mechanics,'' Torre said. ''He's obviously at times trying to make more
perfect pitches than he's probably capable of making.''
Mussina didn't speak with reporters before the game, either. He talked on his cell phone at his locker after batting practice, then dashed off to a team
meeting.
His latest flop, three ineffective innings Monday night in a 16-0 loss at Detroit, dropped Mussina to 0-7 following Yankees losses this year. It also left
him visibly dejected. Mussina said he would ''understand'' if Torre went with another pitcher next time through the rotation.
''Two weeks ago I felt really good about the way I was throwing the ball,'' Mussina said Monday night. ''Two weeks later it's completely at the other end of
the spectrum and I really don't feel like I can do much of anything right, and I haven't helped us at all in the last three games that I pitched. It's
disappointing.
''I don't even know how to describe it because I've never had to deal with it before,'' he added.
Mussina was hurt by some bad luck and poor defense Monday night, which Torre noted.
''There were some balls that with any kind of luck he would have had a better result. I know he wasn't happy with it,'' Torre said. ''He threw more strikes,
gave himself more of a chance. I thought it was better. I thought he was a little freer throwing the ball. I thought he got frustrated quicker.''
free mlb picks- (associated press) sheets returns to brewers.
The Milwaukee Brewers will bring ace right-hander Ben Sheets off the disabled list Wednesday to start against the Chicago Cubs.
Sheets, on the DL since July 16 with a sprained middle finger on his right hand and bothered by blisters, threw in the outfield before Tuesday's 5-3 loss to
the Cubs.
''He was fine,'' said manager Ned Yost, who announced after the game Sheets would start Wednesday.
Sheets is 10-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts this season. He missed 40 games and Milwaukee went 14-26 while he was on the DL, falling out of first place in
the NL Central.
''It provides a little stability for your club. Having your No. 1 guy back out there helps,'' Yost said.
Milwaukee also placed right-hander Claudio Vargas on the disabled list because of a strained lower back. He lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last
start against the Giants, giving up six runs and five hits with a walk and hit batter.
Vargas is 10-4 with a 5.13 ERA in 25 games, including 23 starts.
free mlb picks- (associated press) astros fire manager. Cecil Cooper has never had a problem communicating with players individually. It's the group settings Cooper is going to have to get used to as the new
manager of the Houston Astros.
Bodog.com lists the Astros at +50000 to win the World Series.
Cooper took over as manager after Phil Garner was fired Monday, getting a little more than a month to show that he should have the job next year. The Astros
began Tuesday 58-73, nine games behind first-place Chicago in the NL Central.
Cooper, Houston's bench coach the last three seasons, met with his team for about 30 minutes before batting practice.
''I'm pretty comfortable with the players when it's just moving around with them and talking one-on-one,'' Cooper said. ''What I have difficulty with is when
it's a big group. I struggle with that a little bit, but those are things I have to get through and work through. The more I do it, the better I'll get.''
Team owner Drayton McLane also fired general manager Tim Purpura on Monday and appointed team president Tal Smith the interim replacement. McLane said he'd
like to have a permanent GM in place by the end of this season.
McLane suggested at Monday's announcement that the Astros' final 31 games this season amounted to an audition for Cooper, the first black manager in
franchise history.
''I don't feel any pressure, really. This is something I've done my whole life,'' Cooper said.
The Astros were surprised by the moves, which came less than two years after the franchise made its first trip to the World Series. Until Monday, first
baseman Lance Berkman had no inkling that Garner was in danger of losing his job.
''Not that the manager has zero impact,'' Berkman said, ''but I think many times, the manager gets too much credit for success and too much blame for as poor
a season as we're having.''
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said Cooper has built a reputation around baseball as a skilled, competent coach. But La Russa wasn't happy to see Garner go.
''Phil was outstanding,'' La Russa said. ''They know their organization and they made their move. What I know is Phil Garner did a hell of a job against us
every game.''
Cooper didn't make any major lineup changes, vowing as he did on Monday that he could win with the current roster. He said the team's main problem has been
complacency.
''We have to play with more excitement, more fire,'' Cooper said. ''This is not a criticism of anyone, but we have been really flat, particularly in the last
week or so, and we need to pick it up. Sometimes, you just look at the team in general and things are just not clicking.''
A five-time All-Star during his 17-year playing career, Cooper is a major league manager for the first time. He was the bench coach in Milwaukee in 2002 and
managed Triple-A Indianapolis for two seasons before joining the Astros when Garner replaced the fired Jimy Williams in 2004.
''I don't think you ever know what a guy is going to be like as a manager until he is the manager,'' Astros reserve infielder Chris Burke said. ''At the same
time, I see a lot of leadership, I see a lot of poise and ability to relate to the players. Those are a lot of good qualities right there.''
St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols shook Cooper's hand on the field before Tuesday's game. Berkman said Cooper's success as a player gives him instant
credibility in the Astros' clubhouse.
''He's been around a long time and, in my opinion, he's a borderline Hall of Fame player,'' Berkman said. ''He understands how a team works and what makes a
team successful. I think he's deserving of a shot to be a manager.
''The fact that he was an outstanding player certainly helps when it comes to dealing with us in here.''
Berkman said he was ''sad to see Phil go,'' but he thinks the Astros were smart to promote from within the organization.
''Cooper's been here as long as Phil has. We know him really well,'' Berkman said. ''I don't see it as going to be a really huge change in philosophy or way
we're going to operate in the clubhouse. From that standpoint, the transition is not going to be a difficult one.''
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