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12/19 mlb picks & mlb free picks content
mlb free picks- (covers.com) mlb playoff race heating up.
The MLB playoff race can bring out the best in teams, like the Philadelphia Phillies’ three-game sweep of the New York Mets this weekend.
Philadelphia, a team fighting for its playoff life, moved to within 3 ½ games of the NL East-leading Mets and within 1 ½ of the wild card.
Backers can feel good knowing clubs like the Phillies will scratch and claw for their hard-earned dollars, giving their all every night until October.
However bettors might have to give quite a bit themselves if they want to wager on these playoff contenders.
Sportsbooks pay close attention to postseason hopefuls in the final two weeks of the regular season. The oddsmakers will often add extra prices on the teams
giving that little extra.
“The ones that are playing with incentive are going to have their prices bumped up a bit,” says Las Vegas lines consultant Peter Korner. “As a book, you want
to pay attention to them and shade them, especially when they play a team that isn’t making the playoffs.”
Korner admits there isn’t much two-way action on games when a playoff-bound club faces a team playing out its season, which is the golden rule of bookmaking.
Lines like the ones for this week’s Baltimore-New York or Arizona-San Francisco series require a precise balance. The Yankees and Diamondbacks are in the
thick for it, while their opponents are busy tinkering with their order and trying out September callups.
Books don’t want to undervalue a contending team’s drive, but are also careful not to hang an unfair dog tag on the other side in fear that sharp bettors
will jump on weaker MLB lines.
Vegas wiseguys say they don't shy away from betting on teams in the postseason mix, however most agree they don’t want to shell out the coin necessary for
those bets.
“If you want to win with (playoff contenders),” says lines consultant and professional handicapper David Malinsky, “you have to hope that their extra focus
and effort can make up for the fact that you are betting at retail prices, instead of wholesale.”
What most sharps look for are chances to play against postseason-possible teams. Opportunities like this arise when teams in the hunt face teams that, though
not involved in a playoff race themselves, still want to finish the year strong and relish the opportunity to play spoiler to a divisional rival’s October
aspirations.
The Cincinnati Reds, who have been vocal about ending their season on a high note, are in that situation this week to throw a wrench into the Chicago Cubs’
playoff works. The Cubs are only one game up in the NL Central and have lost seven of the last 12 meetings against the Reds.
Wiseguys also look for teams in the postseason hunt that have been in this situation before and know how to deal with the pressure of the playoff race.
Sharps may fade inexperienced teams that can crack under that unfamiliar pressure.
“Teams that have been there before, like the Yankees, Tigers and Padres, are the ones that I want to be backing at this time of year,” says Sean Murphy of
The Miller Group. “That of course doesn't include the teams that already have playoff positions wrapped up.”
Competing clubs like the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers, squads not used to the kill-or-be-killed situation that can occur in late September, are
susceptible to a collapse after posting losing records over the past few seasons.
Oddsmakers recognize these types of letdown possibilities, as well, and take veteran players into account when setting the lines more than they would at any
other time in the season.
“We know the Yankees have been there and Arizona hasn't, so we will favor those teams that have been there more in September,” says Korner. “We always look
at the starting pitching first and foremost, but this is when we start looking at the players who have been there before and factoring that into the lines.”
mlb free picks- (covers.com) suspensions handed down.
Texas Rangers pitcher Vicente Padilla was suspended Tuesday for seven games and Athletics outfielder Nick Swisher was given three games for an incident that
occurred in the first inning of Sunday's game in Oakland.
Padilla was suspended for intentionally throwing at Swisher, who charged the mound. Both players also received undisclosed fines, a decision made by baseball
disciplinarian Bob Watson.
Swisher began his suspension Tuesday, when the A's hosted the Seattle Mariners in the middle game of their three-game series. Padilla appealed his
suspension. The Rangers played at Minnesota on Tuesday.
The series continue Wednesday when the Rangers are +127 underdogs at Minnesota and the A's are +117 home dogs against Seattle.
Swisher was on crutches Tuesday after fouling a ball off his right foot Monday night, though he stayed in the game. A's manager Bob Geren said it made little
sense for Swisher to appeal his penalty, because that process takes time and that could have meant him missing time at the start of the 2008 season.
''It sounds pretty fair to me, pretty normal,'' Geren said. ''Obviously I wish the whole thing never happened.''
Jeff DaVanon replaced Swisher in center field Tuesday and Geren said Dee Brown also could earn a start in the next few days.
Swisher, who is batting .264 with 22 home runs and 73 RBIs, had homered in each of the first three games of the series with the Rangers before getting hit
for the third straight day. He rushed to the mound and tackled Padilla. Oakland second baseman Jack Hannahan dived into the pile and A's manager Bob Geren
got into a heated argument with the umpires.
Second base umpire Tim Timmons was bumped to the ground during the fray, and plate umpire Chuck Meriwether wasted little time in tossing Padilla and Swisher,
who had to be restrained by catcher Kurt Suzuki and several teammates. Nobody else was ejected.
Swisher was hit by Bill White in the seventh inning on Saturday and glared out at the mound as the umpires issued a warning to both teams.
Doug Mientkiewicz is confident he can help the New York Yankees win down the stretch and in the postseason - even if he isn't 100 percent.
Mientkiewicz was in the starting lineup for the third straight night Tuesday as the Yankees faced the Baltimore Orioles and hit a three-run homer. Known for
his strong defense, the first baseman has come up with some important hits since he returned after having surgery to repair a broken right wrist.
''He's made some big plays,'' Yankees manager Joe Torre said. ''He's had an effect on our games.''
Mientkiewicz hurt his wrist in a collision with Boston's Mike Lowell on June 2 and had surgery 10 days later. He was activated Sept. 1 after a 10-game
rehabilitation assignment in the minors, where he batted .400 with a homer, six doubles and 15 RBIs.
Mientkiewicz, a career .269 hitter, has swung the bat well in limited action since he came off the DL. He went 2-for-3 to help New York beat AL East-leading
Boston 4-3 on Sunday, then followed that with a two-run single and two walks in the Yankees' 8-5 win over Baltimore on Monday.
Mientkiewicz's drive off Jon Leicester in the fourth inning gave the Yankees a 6-0 lead. It was his first homer since May 23 against Boston's Curt Schilling.
He was hitting .226 with four home runs and 16 RBIs in 124 at-bats when he got hurt, and it seems the wrist injury has helped him at the plate.
''When they first cleared me to swing, I noticed something right away, that my wrist would give me pain if I swung, let's say wrong,'' he said. ''If I came
under the ball, my wrist hurt. When I came back and started swinging, when I was flatter, my wrist didn't hurt.''
The defense is still there, too. Mientkiewicz made a terrific diving stop against the Red Sox on Sunday, possibly saving two runs. He won a Gold Glove in
2001 with Minnesota, and his .996 fielding percentage is third-highest among first basemen with 500 or more career games.
''We have enough offense to where I can do the little things to help us win games,'' Mientkiewicz said.
He got another start against the Orioles because Torre said Jason Giambi had a bruised foot from being hit by a pitch in the series opener. X-rays on
Giambi's foot were negative.
mlb free picks- (associated press) orioles pitcher begins suspension. Baltimore Orioles pitcher Daniel Cabrera dropped his appeal and started serving his six-game suspension on Tuesday night for throwing at Boston's Dustin
Pedroia this month.
Cabrera was suspended and fined Thursday for tossing a pitch near Pedroia's head on Sept. 7 and his part in the bench-clearing dustup that followed.
Cabrera gave up eight hits and six runs in five-plus innings in an 8-5 loss to the Yankees on Monday night, and manager Dave Trembley said his next start
will be Monday against Kansas City.
free mlb picks- (associated press) pujols out for cards. Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals was a late scratch for Tuesday night's game against the Philadelphia Phillies due to a strained left calf muscle.
Pujols leads the Cardinals with a .321 average, 31 home runs and 95 RBIs, and was batting .372 in his last 12 games with a home run and 10 RBIs.
Miguel Cairo, among the team's September callups, took Pujols' third spot in the order and started at third base. Scott Spiezio, batting cleanup, moved from
third base to first base.
free mlb picks- (associated press) mlb post season awards.
The race for the National League Cy Young Award is similar to the MVP contest in the American League. San Diego ace Jake Peavy, much like Yankees slugger
Alex Rodriguez, is a sure thing.
Books have tagged Peavy a -1200 favorite to win the 2007 NL Cy Young. The Padres hurler is 18-6 on the season with a major league-leading 2.39 ERA. He has
also recorded wins in eight of his past 10 appearances.
However, in the spirit of fairness, oddsmakers are still offering lines on the other potential winners
Who'll win the AL Cy Young?
The battle for the AL Cy Young is a two-horse race but don't count out the AL's other arms.
Brandon Webb (Arizona Diamondbacks): +600, opened season +600
Last year’s Cy Young winner would be in line for his second straight piece of hardware if it wasn’t for Peavy’s stellar season. Webb is 16-10 with an ERA
just above 3.00 on the year.
The crafty sinkerball pitcher flirted with the record books when he threw 42 consecutive scoreless innings between July and August. This month, Webb is 2-1
in three starts but has been hit for a September ERA of 4.50.
Brad Penny (Los Angeles Dodgers): +1000, opened July 15 +300
The Dodgers ace has already matched last year’s total of 16 wins, getting 10 of those victories before the All-Star break. He had a 2.39 ERA in the first
three and a half months of the season.
Since then the bulky right-hander is 6-3 in 13 outings and watched his ERA rise to 3.59 in the second half. This month, he is 2-0 in three starts and has
recovered from a shaky previous month and a half with an ERA of 2.84 in September.
Aaron Harang (Cincinnati Reds): +1500, opened Aug. 15 +1500
The Cincinnati Reds aren’t known for their pitching but 6-foot-7 righty Aaron Harang has people thinking differently after he posted a 15-4 record this
season.
Harang overcame family issues and a bad back this year to maintain a 3.65 ERA and 3.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The hurler is off to a shaky start in
September though, going 1-1 with an ERA above 5.00.
Jose Valverde (Arizona Diamondbacks): +4000, N/A
Valverde is a long shot to follow in the footsteps of Cy Young-winning closers Eric Gagne and Dennis Eckersley. The reliever has been a key component to the
desert snakes’ rise in the NL West.
Valverde leads the major leagues with 45 saves this season. He's 4-for-4 in save opportunities this month with a 1.80 ERA in September, getting back on track
after a bumpy patch in August.
Takashi Saito (Los Angeles Dodgers): +2500, N/A
Dodgers closer Takashi Saito is another NL West reliever in contention, even if winning the award is a pipe dream. The second-year bullpen player has
recorded 39 saves this season and maintained an ERA under 2.00 all season.
Since the break, the Japanese righty has been even more proficient, keeping his ERA below one and tallying saves in 16 of 17 save opportunities.
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