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June 13 HOME - SPORTS NEWS - SPECIAL EDITION PART 6

NBA PLAYOFFS SPORT NEWS & MLB NEWS

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Free NBA PLAYOFF Picks- (covers.com): battle of stars! duncan vs james.
 
A basketball nation collectively cringed as the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons each built 2-0 leads in the conference finals.
 
“Please not a repeat of the 2005 NBA Finals!” we cried. Remember that doozy? An 84-69 opener, an 81-74 Game 7 and a whole lot of glazed-over eyeballs in between.
 
The hoops deities answered our pleas on Saturday when the Cleveland Cavaliers eliminated the Pistons, giving ABC a superstar clash to promo for the this year's Finals. LeBron James and Tim Duncan provide an interesting contrast and while they won’t be guarding each other during the Finals, expect little but “LeBron vs. TD” headlines in days to come. (And yes, we recognize the irony of attacking the hype machine in the very article contributing to the problem. We're nothing if not self-aware here at Covers.com.)
 
Both James and Duncan have led their teams to 12-4 records this postseason and the Cavs’ 12-4 against-the-spread mark barely eclipses the Spurs’ 11-3-1 payday record.
 
James scored 20 or fewer points five times in the first three rounds and the Cavs lost four of those games. Duncan scored less than 20 points three times through the conference finals and the Spurs lost two of those games. So it only seems appropriate to look over each team’s strategy to shut down the opposing superstar.
 
Stopping the unstoppable
 
LeBron has been accused of disappearing at various times this season, but when he shows up to play, he’s the only player on the floor worth watching. His Game 5 performance against the Pistons showed how unstoppable he can be, even in a non-creative offense.
 
Is King James’s reign over as his opposition takes a significant step up in quality?
 
“It’s an issue of relativity,” says Cover Expert Ted Sevransky. “LeBron’s going up against Bruce Bowen and Cleveland’s a one-trick pony on offense with no other options. Bowen’s not going to shut him down completely, but if you’re talking about an over/under on LeBron’s 30-point games, then maybe one?”
 
Sevransky also points out that the Cavaliers topped 91 points in regulation time only twice in the second and third rounds of the playoffs.
 
“They don’t have a good offensive flow to begin with and now they’re facing a superior defensive team with (a head coach in Gregg) Popovich who’ll adjust unlike (Detroit head coach) Flip Saunders.”
 
Former Spurs great David Robinson suggested on ESPN Radio on Tuesday that the Spurs could let LeBron do his thing while concentrating on shutting down the other Cavaliers. There might be something to that, assuming Bowen can stay in front of James better than he did Deron Williams in the Western finals.
 
The 1998 Montreal Canadiens adopted a similar philosophy against the Pittsburgh Penguins, letting Jaromir Jagr, then in his prime, skate freely while the rest of the Habs shut down Jagr’s teammates. Jagr scored or assisted on nine of the Penguins’ 15 goals in the series, but Montreal won in six games.
 
No one can stop James in single coverage, it’s hard enough to stop him with a double-team. Assigning Bowen to LeBron by himself, however, shuts down James’ outlet options. Cleveland head coach Mike Brown hasn’t shown a clue on the offensive end, so it’ll likely be up to LeBron alone to deliver wins.
 
Steady as she goes
 
Duncan escapes the spotlight by being unspectacular, getting passed over in an era of celebrity worship. He’s never shattered a backboard with a dunk nor feuded publicly with a teammate, and his “Big Fundamental” nickname carries zero street cred.
 
Luckily for Spurs backers, street cred doesn’t matter at the pay window.
 
“When I’m handicapping I’m not so worried about how a superstar’s going to do, I’m worried about what a team’s going to do,” Sevransky says.
 
“Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are stars in their own right and they can step up if (Drew) Gooden or (Anderson) Varejao get Duncan out of his game, though I don’t expect them to do that.”
 
Cleveland is an excellent defensive team, but they haven’t faced a big man of Duncan’s caliber in the entire postseason. The Detroit combo of Rasheed Wallace and Chris Webber could have approached Duncan’s level five years ago, but ‘Sheed set up on the perimeter too often and Webber was too creaky for either to dominate a game.
 
Gooden was impressive at times against Wallace, Varejao is a superpest on opposing big men, Zydrunas Ilgauskas has imposing size and Scot Pollard is on the Cleveland roster specifically for matchups like this – to make life difficult for opposing big men while Cleveland’s starters get a breather.
 
But Duncan’s been an All-Star in the NBA for a decade by beating all comers. Big, fast, mean, dirty … it doesn’t matter. Only Kevin Garnett of the current generation’s stars can be penciled in for 20 and 10 like Duncan. If the Cavs’ motley crew of bigs thinks it can keep TD from reaching those numbers in the Finals, then they might be the only people in North American feeling that way.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): bowen ready to guard james.
 
 In his more than 10 years in the league, San Antonio's Bruce Bowen has seen plenty of impressive players and breakout performances - most of them just a few inches from his face.
 
So when his matchup with LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers is billed as the top confrontation to watch in the upcoming NBA finals, Bowen is neither fazed nor impressed.
 
''The No. 1 assignment in the league?'' Bowen repeated back when asked about guarding James. ''That's your opinion, that's your opinion. ... There's a lot of other scorers in this league, too.''
 
San Antonio is listed as 7 1/2-point favorites for Game 1 and the total is set at 180.
 
The Spurs' Bowen, who turns 36 on June 14, has been voted to the NBA All-Defensive team the last seven years and was selected for the first team the last four. He's been runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year the last three seasons.
 
The 6-foot-7, 200-pound Bowen will likely get much of the time against the 6-8, 240-pound James, who scored a career playoff high 48 points in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals against Detroit.
 
Since then, James's offensive prowess has dominated most talk about the finals. But Bowen isn't necessarily buying into it, especially not when the finals start Thursday in San Antonio.
 
''I think Michael Jordan's 60-something points in Boston was incredible. Now do I think it got this much media coverage? No. Did it deserve it? You could say it did,'' Bowen said. ''Magic Johnson, his rookie year in the NBA, the show he put on in Philly. That is huge. But it goes to show you that if you're not playing anymore, it's, 'OK, well, we're looking for the next best thing.'
 
''I think it was impressive what he did and going through my mind, it's nothing, because I'm not there, I'm not a Detroit Piston, I'm just watching the game as an avid fan,'' Bowen added.
 
But don't get Bowen wrong. It's not as if he hasn't taken notice of James' skills.
 
''It's a matter of him being their foundation, their go-to guy, and he's going to do that night-in and night-out and it's important for us to come with our hard hats and be ready to play,'' Bowen said.
 
Bowen is used to the position he'll be in for the next couple weeks. As a defender who doesn't always put up the big numbers of Spurs teammates Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, Bowen is often seen as the antagonist to favorites like Steve Nash and Allen Iverson.
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): is rookie guard ready for finals.
 
When the older kids in his Houston neighborhood would pick on him or beat him up, little Daniel Gibson would run home crying to his mother. She gave him a nickname for not fighting back.
 
'''Crybaby Boobie,''' Gibson said.
 
It's just Boobie now.
 
Well, this crybaby knows a thing or two about 3-point shooting, and he made Rasheed Wallace and the Pistons go WAAAAHHHH! - all the way home to Detroit.
 
During the Cleveland Cavaliers' unprecedented playoff run to the NBA finals, the 21-year-old, always-smiling Gibson has emerged as an unlikely postseason hero. The second-round pick who left Texas after two seasons and who prayed he'd get selected by the Cavaliers, has become LeBron James' co-star and sidekick.
 
In the Cavs' conference-clinching Game 6 win over the Pistons on Saturday night as 2-point favorites, Gibson scored a season-high 31 points by making all five of his 3-pointers, including four in the fourth quarter, when he outscored Detroit 19-16.
 
In the midst of a scoring flurry nearly as stunning as James' 48-point effort in Game 5, more than 20,000 fans inside Quicken Loans Arena began chanting ''Boo-bie, Boo-bie.''
 
''It gave me goose bumps,'' Gibson said Monday. ''I really truly thought it was all a dream. I didn't think it was real. But this morning when I woke up, it still happened.''
 
Not long after he completed target practice on the Pistons, Gibson was given a royal escort to the postgame news conference by King James himself, who hollered ''Out of the way for the superstar'' to clear a path for Gibson.
 
James, who is 14 months older than Gibson, has been in his younger teammate's corner from the start.
 
''When we got Daniel in the second round (No. 42 overall), I believe it was a blessing in disguise,'' James said. ''I believe we got a steal. I just knew how good of a basketball player he could be, and once I saw his work ethic during practice, after practice, before practice. ... I get to the gym early, and he's there before me.''
 
As the youngest of Cheryl and Byron Gibson's four children, Daniel was raised to work hard, study hard and play hard. He drifted onto the basketball court at an early age and became a Texas high school scoring machine, racking up 3,102 career points at Jesse Jones High School.
 
Gibson played two seasons for the Longhorns before entering the draft. He wasn't sure where he'd be picked - most figured late first or early second round - but he knew where he wanted to go.
 
Cleveland, of all places.
 
''The Cavs were a team that I really wanted to play with because LeBron is such a great player,'' Gibson said. ''I just wanted to have the opportunity to play with him and help him reach this level.''
 
Following his pre-draft workout for the Cavaliers, Gibson canceled visits to other teams, including one to his hometown Rockets. His outside range made a lasting impression on Cavs coach Mike Brown, who envisioned Gibson being able to open the floor for James.
 
''When (Cavs general manager) Danny Ferry and those guys brought him out for the pre-draft stuff, he stroked the mess out that ball,'' Brown said, ''and then in training camp you saw that again, and you saw his quickness, you saw his toughness and his explosiveness, and you're like - wow.''
 
But the rookie didn't get much playing time until late January, when he replaced Eric Snow in the starting lineup. He showed some grit early on - challenging Miami's Shaquille O'Neal on a drive, hitting an off-balance layup while being knocked to the floor by Shaq.
 
''He could have smushed me,'' said Gibson, who has a photo of the hair-raising encounter in his locker.
 
Gibson's size - he's listed as a very generous 6-foot-2 - had Brown concerned about his ability to get the ball to the basket. He would need a new wrinkle to his game, and Brown, a former assistant with San Antonio, knew just the one.
 
''One of the first things I said to him was, 'Daniel, you're a small guy so you're not going to be able to have a medium game like (Detroit's) Rip (Hamilton) where you can get into the teeth of the defense and pull up.
 
''I said what you need to develop is the Tony Parker push shot. If you get that Tony Parker push shot down, with the way you shoot those 3s - wooo. And as quick as you are and as tough as you are, you're going to be hard to stop.''
 
Parker and the Spurs most likely will keep a close eye on Gibson, who averaged 13.5 points against the Pistons - nine points above his regular-season average.
 
''I'm pretty sure that those guys are probably going to pay a little more attention to me,'' he said. ''But at the same time we still have No. 23 out there so they had better pay attention to him. He's the guy that really gets me a lot of my looks.''
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): can cavs compete vs spurs.
 
The NBA has its brightest star on its largest stage, but it will take all the King’s men to survive the best in the West. The consensus among experts and pundits is that the Western Conference is too good for the East.
 
And bookmakers agree.
 
Western Conference teams have been favored in each of the last three Finals, even though the East has walked away with the championship twice during that same span. Pinnacle has the San Antonio Spurs listed as –422 favorites to win the series and -7 ½ for Game 1 on Thursday against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
 
“I personally don’t give Cleveland much of a chance,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting group in Las Vegas.
 
His group recommended the Spurs as –550 to win the Finals and Korner said they believe the pointspreads for Games 3, 4 and 5 in Cleveland will be close to a pick.
 
Despite the Miami Heat’s championship run last year and the Detroit Pistons' success in 2004, almost everyone in the betting world will tell you that the West is far and away the dominant conference. Western teams have won six of the last eight NBA titles and they are 24-18-2 against the spread in the Finals since 1999.
 
“Just look at what the top Western teams do to the top Eastern teams year in and year out in recent seasons,” says Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach. “I know a couple of champs have recently come from the East but, overall, the regular season does say a lot about how the best from each conference match up against one another.”
 
But should the Cleveland Cavaliers be exempt? Cleveland was 10-6 ATS in the regular season against teams from the West which went on to make the playoffs. Even more impressive, Cavs have beaten the Spurs in their last three meetings and they’ve covered in six of the last eight games.
 
There are quite a few similarities between San Antonio and Cleveland. Cavaliers coach Mike Brown used to be an assistant under Spurs coach Greg Popovich and Cavs general manger Danny Ferry finished up his playing career with San Antonio and was the team’s Director of Basketball Operations in 2005. The Cavs have also adopted their defense-first philosophy from the Spurs organization.
 
Some might say that Cleveland got a lucky draw in the playoffs because they faced a Washington Wizards team in the first round that was missing two key players (Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler), whereas San Antonio had to play the second-best regular season team (Phoenix Suns) in the second round.
 
“I don’t see scheduling to be an issue come playoff time,” Korner says. “There’s so much time in between games, I think both teams will come into the Finals rested and healthy.”
 
Even though both Korner and Rickenbach both like the Spurs to come away with the championship, they each say they would not be surprised if Cleveland pulls the upset.
 
“I think these games are going to be close,” Korner says. “I don’t think there’s going to be any runaways.”
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): nba finals props.
 
Will make Robert Horry make a 3-point shot in Thursday’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals?
 

Before you answer "who cares," let me point out the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants put out this yes/no prop so some Nevada hotels are probably going to book it. It’s one of about 35 props LVSC sent to their many Nevada sportsbooks customers.
 

Now back to Horry, perhaps the only player to help his team win a key series by committing a blatant cheap shot. Yes, having Phoenix to win that series, the memory still burns in my mind.
 

Horry probably would make a 3-pointer if the Spurs needed a game-winner at the end. But that’s probably not going to be necessary since Horry’s San Antonio Spurs are 7 ½-point favorites at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
 

So if you happen to run across this prop – play the ‘no.’ Horry made only one 3-point shot the entire five-game series against Utah. He averaged 1.4 3-point shot attempts per game in the Jazz series.
 

Any other props worth playing?
 

Sure. You can wager on the exact number of games it takes either San Antonio or Cleveland to win the series. We know the Spurs are going to win. Can the Cavaliers take it to the limit? No. Can the Cavaliers reach Game 6? Probably not. It may be asking too much for the Spurs to sweep. So I’m taking 5-2 on San Antonio capturing the championship in five games.
 

There are plenty of LeBron James props. The one I like is an LVSC one pitting James against Tim Duncan on which player will miss more free throws. I’ll take Duncan at minus one-half. In the team’s first meeting this season, Duncan missed 10 of 19 free throws. You can be sure the Cavaliers remember that performance. They won’t be afraid to foul Duncan.
 

James also is the better free throw shooter. He shot 69.8 percent from the foul line during the regular season. Duncan made just 63.7 percent of his free throws. The Cavaliers figure to be behind at the end so Duncan will be the guy they’ll look to foul provided Duncan stays in the game.
 

Olympic, an online book, has odds on which player will be selected as the series Most Valuable Player. I like James getting +350. James is going to get all of Cleveland’s touches. He should have monster statistics. That could land him the trophy even if the Cavaliers lose as expected.
 

Duncan is the likely winner, but he’s priced way too low at -250. The Spurs’ statistics are more team-oriented, too. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili cut into Duncan’s offensive numbers.
 

James isn’t likely to have that problem since he doesn’t have nearly the supporting cast Duncan does.
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): looking at the cavs and spurs paths to the nba finals.
 
The NBA Finals don’t start until Thursday night, giving bettors ample time to dissect the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs from every imaginable angle.
 
Too much time, maybe.
 
One thing that makes itself clear during the regular season is that paying too much attention to season-long stats keeps bettors removed from the real picture. Teams go up and down like an elevator all season. The more attention you pay to recent action, the better a picture you’ll get of the team’s current status.
 
Here are some key betting numbers dealing with the months, weeks and days most recently gone by for both finalists.
 
Making money when it counts
 
Through the end of January, regular backers of both teams were losing money. The Spurs were 23-23-1 against the spread (ATS) while the Cavs were 18-26-1 ATS. It’s been nothing but good times since, especially for Cleveland bettors.
 
LeBron James & Co. have gone 37-15-1 ATS since Feb. 1, an awesome 71 percent payday rate. The Cavs managed to improve in the playoffs, going 12-4 (75 percent) ATS in the postseason.
 
Spurs’ backers have had to "settle" for a 60 percent payoff rate since Feb. 1, due to the team’s 30-20-1 ATS mark. The postseason has been especially kind, as San Antonio’s 11-4-1 (73 percent) ATS mark nearly matches that of its Finals opponent.
 
Playoff totals misleading?
 
Both clubs have played under the total more frequently than over this postseason, but bettors shouldn’t rely too heavily on the teams’ defensive reputations as both have scored more than expected in recent games.
 
The Spurs opened the playoffs by playing under in all five games against the Denver Nuggets, but then kept up with the Phoenix Suns before running past the Utah Jazz. The Spurs actually played over the total in four of five games against Utah.
 
Cleveland’s series with the Detroit Pistons threatened to become a repeat of last season’s snoozer. Then James started scoring at will and Daniel Gibson led the charge of teammates sharing the load. The Cavs’ scoring went up and the final three games all played over the total during regulation time.
 
Round One
 
Cleveland drew the easier first-round opponent in the hobbled Washington Wizards and the Cavs covered the spread three times in their sweep with an average margin of victory of 8.8 points. It was easily their highest-scoring series, as the Cavaliers topped 97 points in all four games. They’ve done so in regulation only twice in their subsequent 12 games.
 
The Spurs drew the Nuggets and were shocked at home in the opener. That upset made the San Antonio’s lines friendlier, enabling a 4-1 ATS final result. The Spurs’ consistency over their final four wins was enough to set a clock by – combining the Spurs to cover with the under was the safest NBA parlay imaginable.
 
Round Two
 
The Cavs showed weaknesses against the New Jersey Nets in the second round, dropping a couple of games by double-digits and going 3-3 ATS in the six-game series. Cleveland’s frontcourt didn’t excel against New Jersey’s no-name bigs and the Cavs topped 88 points only once as a result. Their average margin of victory dropped to 1.7 points.
 
San Antonio faced the Suns in what many deemed “the real NBA Finals” and won the series in six games, going 3-2-1 ATS in the process. The push came in Game 5 in Phoenix when the Spurs were favored due to the Suns’ pair of suspended starters. San Antonio closed out the series in style against an exhausted core of Suns starters, topping 108 points in regulation for the third time of the series.
 
Conference finals
 
Cleveland shocked the pundits and pleased its backers by going 6-0 ATS against the favored Pistons. The Cavs could’ve won all three games at the Palace of Auburn Hills and pulled it off in Game 5 thanks to LeBron’s dominance. They got better as the series continued, winning the clincher by 16 points after none of the first five games were decided by more than a 6-point margin.
 
Building a big first-half lead at home was the Spurs’ calling card against the Jazz. San Antonio led by 18, 17 and 16 points respectively at halftime of its three home games in the Western finals. The second-half deficits in Games 1 through 3, however, were a concern for Spurs backers. San Antonio’s average deficit after the break was 17.3 points during the opening trio of games.
 

 




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