December 19 , 2006 - SPORTS NEWS - SPECIAL EDITION MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL SPORTS NEWS

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): college basketball is where you can find the weakest betting lines in sports. Rarely do sportsbooks show weakness. It is even rarer that they admit it. But in the case of early season college basketball totals, oddsmakers can’t deny their struggles with setting a sharp number. “College hoops is always tough to do. When you get to its totals, it is one of the toughest,” says Pete Korner, a line consultant with The Sports Club. “Particularly with NCAA, it is a crap shoot. There are such a number of teams it is hard to gauge because they are going through the motions to start the year.” This comes as old news to professional handicappers, who have been taking their best shot at the weak totals available every November and December. Sharp bettors agree with books that this is one of the toughest sports to cap this time of the year because teams are still trying to find their identities. Oddsmakers don’t rely much on formulas for calculating the early stats because of the many inconsistencies teams have on offense and defense, but rather look at teams’ past few games as a benchmark for setting the totals. “Recency is the biggest factor,” says Korner. “How a team has played in the last the four or five games is the most important. We may use line comparison and try to find some sort of standard deviation and public perception may puff up the total a bit.” The North Carolina Tar Heels, fresh off a high scoring win over Ohio State, was handed a 156 ½-point total when it faced defensive-minded Kentucky on December 2. Books failed to account for the Wildcats’ week of defensive preparation and ended up watching the final score play 18 ½-points under the bookies` number. The Tar Heels continue to see an average total of 159.91 after scoring more than 90 points per game and looking to average over 100-plus possessions. However, they had troubles against hard-nosed defensive schools like Kentucky, Winthrop and Gonzaga, all of which played under in their meetings with UNC. According to professional handicapper Ted Sevransky, the best way to spot a weak total is to look at the limitations sportsbooks put on it. Most books will not leave themselves open to a big loss and are very cautious about the maximum bet they`ll allow on iffy games. “Lower the limits, move full points instead of a half, move it quickly. These are all things oddsmakers do to protect themselves,” says Korner. “Some books won`t use certain conferences because they don`t know enough about the teams.” Doing you homework on these lesser known conferences is also a great way to spot a weak total. Handicappers spend hours reviewing stats and watching games of smaller schools, trying to get the inside edge on these hidden goldmines. “Looking at under-the-radar type games is certainly key,” says Pat Miller of Covers Experts. “Unless you get the opportunity to watch these smaller schools play, it`s tough to come up with a justified opinion. But digging deep into the numbers is certainly important.” The nation’s most profitable over play does not come from a high-powered conference like the ACC or Big 12. The Rhode Island Rams of the Atlantic Ten have gone 10-0 over/under this season and are averaging 161.3 total points per contest. Oddsmakers have not yet caught on to the Rams trend yet, giving Rhode Island’s games an average total of only 146.4 points. Sharp bettors are expecting totals to tighten come January when the schools start conference play. The close competition as well as familiarity allows oddsmakers to get a better look at how teams are playing. The increased media coverage also helps books set sharper numbers. “The starting lineups will have settled down by then,” professional handicapper David Malinsky says of January’s totals. “There is the confidence of knowing that each team will be playing hard in every game, which is not always the case in November and December.” Some adjustments are already being made to college totals after eight of the first 10 games the Duke Blue Devils played went under the number. Duke, one of the NCAA’s most public teams, does not have the same explosive offensive it has had in past years. Oddsmakers opened the season with totals as high as 161 for the Blue Devils’ games, based on last season’s production. They quickly realized their mistake after the team’s games averaged only 119.8 total points, leading to the smaller totals Duke has got in its last three contests. Books have set totals as low as 120 points for the Blue Devils most recent games. While bookmakers become wise to teams’ tendencies as the season plays on, sharps believe that playing the totals can still be a very profitable venture if you are willing to put in the time and adjust along with the oddsmakers. “Even during the regular season the college totals are among the weakest lines on the board, which explains why the betting limits remain so low on them,” says Malinsky. “From a fundamental standpoint they are difficult lines to set in the first place, and in the early part of the season when there are so many personnel issues, it gets even tougher.” Share your thoughts on this article in the Covers posting forum.
NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (covers.com): books like ohio state to blow out iowa state. So far, Ohio State freshman center Greg Oden has been as good as advertised. Oden looks to turn in another strong performance against an Iowa State squad that could again be without its center when the teams meet at Value City Arena in Columbus, Ohio on Tuesday. Oddsmakers Ohio State listed as 24-point favorites. The total is set at 139.
Oden made his debut for No. 3 Ohio State (9-1) on Dec. 2 after missing the start of the season with a right wrist injury. The highly touted seven-footer has played in three games, scoring at least 14 points in each and recording two double-doubles. Oden had 14 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks in 27 minutes Saturday as the Buckeyes beat Cincinnati 72-50 in the most lopsided victory in the history of the Wooden Tradition. He dominated the inside despite playing with a heavy wrap on his surgically repaired wrist and not being completely up to speed after missing so much time. ``I`ve not been playing as much as these guys have,`` he said. ``They`ve been up and down all year, and I`m just getting started.`` Oden went 6-of-7 from the field against the Bearcats, ending a streak of 17 consecutive baskets that fell eight shy of the NCAA Division I record set by Ray Voelkel of American University in 1978. ``I think I was a little surprised how well he played today and then again I`m not because I cannot explain how much he`s done,`` coach Thad Matta said. ``He`s putting the time and the work in, and once he gets his right hand back, I think he`ll really continue to grow.`` Oden`s presence in the middle also forced Cincinnati to take more outside shots and was a significant factor in the Bearcats hitting just 26.0 percent of their shots. ``When he`s out there, they definitely don`t want to drive,`` said guard Mike Conley Jr., who had eight points, eight rebounds and seven assists. ``When he`s down low, he makes them think twice.`` Oden could have another chance to dominate against the Cyclones (7-4), who have played their last five games without center Ross Marsden. Marsden, who started Iowa State`s first six contests, has been fighting a case of mononucleosis and is day-to-day. Tuesday`s game will also serve as a final tune-up for Oden before he goes up against No. 5 Florida and its formidable frontcourt on Saturday. Iowa State opened the season with six straight wins, but has since dropped four of five, including Saturday`s 76-66 loss to Bradley. Freshman Wesley Johnson had 18 points and 10 rebounds and Mike Taylor, who leads the Cyclones with 15.0 points per game, added 13. ``We made a lot of mistakes,`` guard Corey McIntosh said. ``We made some runs and we just didn`t finish up strong. They ended up making counter runs after every timeout, which hurt us.`` Johnson was named Big 12 player of the week after also picking up 15 points and 11 rebounds in a 70-59 win over Savannah State on Wednesday. Ohio State has won each of the previous four meetings between these teams, including a 70-67 victory on Dec. 17, 2005, in the most recent matchup.

NCAA BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (associated press) : number 1 ucal thinks they can play better.

UCLA has spent four straight weeks with the AP`s top ranking, but the Bruins still aren`t satisfied they are as good as they could be. Heading into the team`s final stretch of non-conference games, UCLA looks to work on its perceived weaknesses as it faces Sam Houston State on Tuesday at Pauley Pavilion. Oddsmakers have not released a line for this game. UCLA (9-0) stayed perfect with a 74-53 win over Oakland, Michigan, on Saturday. Darren Collison scored 15 points and Arron Afflalo added 14 for the Bruins, who shot 50.9 percent from the field following what coach Ben Howland said was a difficult stretch for his team. ``It was a long week,`` he said. ``We had guys studying (for finals), staying up late, and a tough game at the Wooden Classic.`` The team was coming off its closest game of the season, a 65-62 victory over then-No. 6 Texas A&M on Saturday, a contest that showed Howland areas where his Bruins needed to improve and areas they were again exploited after being outrebounded for the second straight game, this time 38-33 by the Grizzlies. ``We`ve been out-boarded two weeks in a row now,`` Howland said. ``If we continue to get beat on the boards, we are going to lose.`` The team also continued its struggles at the foul line, going 10-of-18 (55.6 percent) after going 8-of-16 the previous week. UCLA is shooting 59.8 percent at the line - the worst in the Pac-10. Josh Shipp, who had 13 points and six rebounds Saturday, was the biggest offender, going 3-of-7. The team`s second-leading scorer at 14.2 points per game, is shooting 67.7 at the free throw line for the season. ``Sometimes I play around in practice,`` Shipp said Howland told him during the game. ``I need to get more serious.`` UCLA and No. 8 Wichita State are the only unbeaten teams in the Top 10. The Bruins face Michigan on Saturday in their non-conference season finale before opening their conference schedule on Dec. 28 against Washington State. This will be UCLA`s first time facing Sam Houston State (6-4), which is coming off a 70-62 overtime loss to UC-Irvine on Saturday. Jejuan Plair led the Bearkats with 16 points and Jeremy Thomas added 10 off the bench. Ryan Bright, who leads the team in scoring with 16 points per game, was held to a season-low six points. Sam Houston State didn`t score in the first four minutes of either half and shot just 27 percent for the game. Still, the Bearkats nearly stole a victory in regulation, but Plair missed a layup at the buzzer. This is just the third time in school history that the Bearkats have faced a Pac-10 opponent. They lost to Arizona State 85-81 in overtime in 1996 and to Arizona 87-51 last year. ``Obviously, playing a storied program like UCLA in Pauley Pavilion is a tremendous thrill for the players and coaches alike,`` coach Bob Marlin said. ``UCLA is a very disciplined team and they know how to change gears if they need to. This is going to be a great experience for everyone involved.`` Sam Houston State is 0-6 against ranked teams since the start of the 1996-97 season, while the Bruins are 124-3 at home all-time when ranked No. 1.
NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS- (associated press): top recruit admitted to south carolina.

Chad Gray, a 6-foot-7 forward expected to bolster South Carolina`s front court, has been admitted to the university and can start practicing Tuesday, the school said. Gray`s admission this fall was denied by the university because of concerns over his former prep school, which had been on a a list of those being looked at as "diploma mills" by the NCAA. The NCAA later permitted schools to accept Florida Preparatory Academy athletes. Still, Gray was not admitted and took classes for a semester at nearby Midlands Technical College. Gray`s acceptance to the school means he will be eligible to play Wednesday against Princeton. "I am very pleased for Chad," said Coach Dave Odom. "His acceptance at the university rewards him for all his hard work and commitment over a long period of time. Chad never wavered in his desire to become a Gamecock." Oddsmakers have not released a line for this game at this time. Odom said Gray has a lot to learn and his development "will truly be a work in progress" as the Gamecocks (6-2) move into Southeastern Conference play. Odom has said he expects Gray may play small forward, power forward and center. Gray could help a front line attempting to find stability without Renaldo Balkman, who opted for the NBA draft after his junior season and was taken as the 20th overall pick by the New York Knicks. Brandon Wallace, a 6-foot-9 senior, is South Carolina`s most experienced and effective frontcourt player. He is second on the team with a 12.3 points a game and leads in rebounding and blocks.
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (associated press): wichita state on a roll. Wichita State began the Las Vegas Holiday Classic with a monumental rout. The eighth-ranked Shockers look for another blowout victory as they host Kennesaw State on Tuesday. Oddsmakers have not released a line for this game. The first two rounds of the tournament are being held at host sites. It shifts to Las Vegas on Friday, when Wichita State (8-0) plays New Mexico and Kennesaw State (2-7) meets Maryland-Eastern Shore. The Shockers are coming off a 102-46 win over Maryland-Eastern Shore on Saturday, the third-largest victory in school history and their biggest since beating Hardin-Simmons 105-46 on Dec. 1, 1980. ``We were really rolling offensively,`` Wichita State coach Mark Turgeon said. ``I was really worried whether we`d be able to do that after being off for eight days.`` Wichita State beat Wyoming 83-69 on Dec. 9 in its first game as a top 10 team in 25 years, then showed no rust in Saturday`s victory. P.J. Couisnard went 8-for-8 from the floor and finished with 21 points, the first Shockers player to crack 20 this season. ``Any night could be somebody`s night,`` Couisnard said. ``It was just a team effort. My teammates found me in the open spots.`` The Shockers found plenty of open shots against the Hawks. They shot 65 percent for the game, the second-highest percentage in school history, and were at 70 percent for the first 10 minutes of the contest, when they took a 22-7 lead. Wichita State shot 66.7 percent in a 72-66 win over Austin Peay on Dec. 17, 1987. ``We shared the ball and executed at a high level,`` Turgeon said. ``It was a good win for us.`` With a victory over Kennesaw State on Tuesday, the Shockers can match the 2004-05 team for the best start in school history. Kennesaw State has lost three in a row, including an 82-54 defeat at Kansas State on Saturday in the first round of the classic. The Owls shot 33.9 percent from the field and were only 4-for-21 from 3-point range. ``I thought we came out flat,`` Kennesaw State coach Tony Ingle said. ``We could not make a shot against their defense early. I`ve got to give them credit. They came out strong and we just couldn`t match it.`` Kennesaw State is 0-4 on the road and its 36.3 percent shooting is the ninth-worst in Division I. The Owls lost 87-42 to then-No. 21 George Washington on Nov. 23, 2005, their only other matchup against a ranked team. This is the first meeting between these schools. Following Friday`s games of the classic, Wichita State will face either Kansas State or Southern California on Saturday, while Kennesaw State will meet either Longwood or Charleston Southern.
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (espn.com): ucla stll number 1 in coaches poll.
Unbeaten UCLA (9-0) remained No. 1 in the latest ESPN/USA Today men's basketball coaches' poll, but there's a new team nipping on their heels.
North Carolina (8-1) moved up one spot to No. 2, following Pittsburgh's loss to Wisconsin on Saturday. The Panthers (10-1) fell five spots to No. 7, while the Badgers (11-1) rose from seventh to No. 5. Ohio State (9-1) is No. 3, followed by Florida (9-2), Wisconsin, Duke (9-1), Pittsburgh, Wichita State (8-0), Arizona (8-1) and Alabama (9-1) to round out the top 10. No teams fell out of the Top 25 this week. Gonzaga (9-3), which lost at Georgia on Saturday, dropped eight spots from No. 16 to 24th to suffer the biggest fall. In the AP poll, Wisconsin rose from seventh to No. 4, its best standing ever in those rankings. UCLA remained No. 1 for a fourth straight week, followed by North Carolina and Ohio State.
FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): top ten ats teams as of 12/19.

1 UC Santa Barbara
2 Mississippi St.
3 Connecticut
4 Va. Commonwealth
5 Ohio St
6 Arkansas St.
7 Davidson
8 Pepperdine
9 Purdue
10 Boston College


FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (espn.com) oklahoma state without key reserve.

Oklahoma State will have to find a way to continue its strong start without a key reserve. Cowboys coach Sean Sutton announced Monday that freshman guard Obi Muonelo will be out indefinitely following surgery to repair a fractured fibula in his left leg. Muonelo was injured near the end of practice on Saturday. Following the injury, he was evaluated and diagnosed by Oklahoma State's sports medicine department. He underwent surgery Sunday morning at Stillwater Medical Center. Muonelo was a key contributor off the Cowboys bench, helping them to an 11-0 start and a No. 14 ranking in the ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll released Monday. Playing in all 11 games this season, Muonelo averaged 11.1 points and 4.1 rebounds, third on the team in both categories. Muonelo will be sorely missed this week as the Cowboys face a tough non-conference stretch. They play Tennessee in Nashville on Monday before taking on seventh-ranked Pittsburgh on Thursday in the All-College Classic in Oklahoma City. Oklahoma State is off to an 11-0 start for just the fifth time in school history. The Cowboys were 13-0 to start the 2001-02 season.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (associated press) colorado coach to finish season. Ricardo Patton will continue coaching the Colorado Buffaloes this season while a committee searches for his successor. Patton
"Our intention is for him to complete the season,'' athletic director Mike Bohn said Thursday. Upset that he didn't get a contract extension before this season, Patton issued a surprise announcement on Oct. 25 that this season would be his last in Boulder. Bohn said he didn't replace Patton immediately with an assistant or another coach on an interim basis because "we wanted the least disruption to the team as possible. We're committed to coach and the players. And Ricardo has committed to doing all he can to move the program forward.'' So, Patton's final year in Boulder will almost certainly be among his worst. The freshmen-laden Buffaloes were picked by the league's coaches to finish last in the Big 12, and they're off to a league-worst 3-6 start so far. For the first time in Patton's 11 seasons, they've lost four non-conference home games, including a 72-69 defeat to Colorado State on Saturday night that marked the Rams' first win in Boulder since 1957. The seven-member search group that convened this week is chaired by Tom McGrath, a special assistant to Bohn. There's no timeline for the committee's recommendation, although the school doesn't want the search to drag on too long into the spring. Bohn said dozens of prospective candidates have inquired about the job either directly or through representatives. "The interest has been more than we ever would have anticipated,'' he said. NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (associated press): former montana state coach killed in car crash. Al Beye, a first-team all-Big Sky basketball selection last season as a senior at Montana State, died in an automobile accident, school officials said Saturday.
The one-vehicle rollover happened Friday night in the Dillon area, where Beye, 24 and a native of Senegal, was visiting his brother, Assane Beye, 25.
Al Beye was in a vehicle driven by his brother as the two traveled to a Christmas party about five miles from Dillon, Beaverhead County Sheriff Jay Hansen said. The party was at the ranch of a meat company, La Cense Beef, where Assane Beye worked, Hansen said.
The sheriff said the vehicle went out of control on a gravel lane leading to the ranch, apparently because of inattentive driving. There was no indication that drugs or alcohol contributed to the crash, Hansen said. Neither man used a seat belt, he said.
Assane Beye, a student at the University of Montana-Western in Dillon, was listed in satisfactory condition Saturday at the Dillon hospital. His injuries included a broken leg.
The 6-foot-11 Al Beye averaged 11.8 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game last season for the Bobcats and was chosen the Big Sky's co-Defensive MVP. He had one semester of courses remaining to earn a degree in liberal studies at MSU.
Mick Durham, the former MSU coach whose staff recruited Beye from Eastern Oklahoma State College in 2003, said Beye was as popular as any player he coached in 25 years at the school.
"He was just a great kid," said Durham, who coached Beye from 2003-06, including his 2003-04 redshirt season.
MSU junior guard Casey Durham said it could take an hour to walk across campus with Beye because of all the people who wanted to talk with him.
"Any time anybody called and needed a Bobcat basketball player to do something, they wanted Al Beye," Mick Durham said. "He was willing to do anything the community wanted. He was just amazing that way with people."
Beye, who called himself "Senegal Slim," was a crowd favorite for his thundering dunks and his shot-blocking ability. He blocked 62 shots last season, setting the school's single season record. He is third on the career list with 105 blocked shots after playing just two seaons.
In Beye's honor, MSU observed a moment of silence before Saturday night's game against Utah Valley State. The men's and women's teams will wear "55" patches -- Beye's number -- on their uniforms for the remainder of the season.