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January 24, 2007 - SPORTS NEWS - SPECIAL EDITION MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL SPORTS NEWS

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com):mizzu fighting altitude problem with trip to boulder.

The Missouri Tigers are taking measures to insure another road victory doesn’t vanish into thin air. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting that the Tigers have been using a Hypoxico machine in training sessions for the past few weeks. The machine, which filters oxygen-reduced air into face masks, not only reduces fatigue and increases recovery time, but will also climatize the Missouri players to the thin atmosphere they`ll face when they visit Colorado tonight. “[Thin air] has indeed been a factor,” Covers Expert David Malinsky says of handicapping events in Denver. “And for us many times it has been more of a second half issue than for the first 20 minutes. We have many times seen teams have trouble getting their legs back after taking the halftime break.” The Tigers are desperate for a win since starting Big 12 play 0-4 (1-3 ATS). They haven’t captured a road victory in more than a year and are 0-4 away from home this season. Mizzou, the first collegiate program to have a Hypoxico machine, has been using the thin air in cycling sessions and had increased the usage leading up to Tuesday’s departure to Boulder. According to conditioning director David Deets, players have responded very well to the training and he expects big improvements to the Tigers fast-paced style with an increase in stamina. The team is scoring almost 79 points per game on an average of 61.4 field goal attempts. "The way we run, you’ve got to always look for something to get a guy out on the floor," Deets told reporters. "If he can play for another minute longer, it’s worth it. He could even play for two minutes longer… They’ll stay on it the whole season that way they won’t fatigue so fast and won’t have that dropoff that some people do toward the end of the season when they’ve been over-trained." While the Tigers staff is optimistic about the benefit of the sessions, professional handicappers are not entirely sold on the school`s $4,000 investment. “I`m sure using the Hypoxico Machine can make a difference, but it`s probably minimal,” says Pat Miller of Covers Experts. “I really don`t think it takes players too long to get their bodies adjusted to the altitude. Maybe a little oxygen on the bench early in the game helps out, but other than that, I think they`re alright.” The Buffaloes haven’t faired much better than the Tigers this season. Colorado has only one win in the Big 12 and a poor 5-10 overall record, covering in only four of 14 games in which odds were available. "[The air] really is a factor, but only when the Buffaloes played the kind of basketball that could take advantage. That is not the case in Ricardo Patton’s lame-duck season," says Malinsky. “Most nights it has just been playground basketball from [Colorado]. I would not be surprised if the focus was more on just letting the kids have fun than anything else.” Oddsmakers have Missouri listed as a 7-point road favorite for tonight’s game. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on Fox Sports Net Rocky Mountain from the Coors Events Center in Boulder, Colorado. The total is set at 154 1/2.

NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (covers.com): can michigan avoid kohl center curse.

The Kohl Center is like Kryptonite whenever the Michigan Wolverines are in Madison. Michigan has failed to come away with a straight up win in its last five games visiting the Wisconsin Badgers, going 1-4 against the spread over the past seven years. The Wolverines have been pummeled by an average of 20.8 points per game during this skid, getting their only payday as a 13-point underdog in a 63-74 loss back in 2004. Head coach Tommy Amaker is trying to put this ugly trend in the past when his team rolls into Madison tonight. The Wolverines are 4-1 in Big Ten play and 16-4 on the season, but now they face their first real conference test against the No. 3 ranked Badgers. Amaker told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel he is turning to his veteran players to carry the team when they face a hostile crowd on Wednesday. Seniors Dion Harris and Courtney Sims know what to expect from the Wisconsin fans, but according to handicappers, that will not be enough to end the Wolverines’ drought. “I generally don`t put much weight at all into historical trends,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “However in this case, even though I don`t buy into the historical stuff, I can tell you that I don`t think Michigan has any chance of winning at Madison.” The Wolverines` impressive start to conference play has their defense ranked atop the Big Ten, first in scoring defense (57.2 ppg) and second in defensive field goal percentage (39.2 percent). However, Michigan has assembled these numbers against weak opponents, getting wins against Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern and Penn State, all of which have losing records this season. “Michigan is a very young team and they don`t have much depth,” says Rickenbach. “The Wolverines have 11 games left starting with Wisconsin. Other than two games against Minnesota, the rest of the Wolverines` schedule is very tough.” The biggest task facing the UM defense on Wednesday will be stopping the strong frontcourt attack of Wisconsin. Badgers forwards Alando Tucker and Brian Butch are an impressive one-two punch and the backcourt of Kammron Taylor and Michael Flowers provide solid ball-control. Michigan will have a tough time capitalizing on the few mistakes Wisconsin makes and a tough time matching up in a halfcourt set. The Badgers have turned the ball over only seven times in each of their last two games. “The Badgers are too strong. They are so well balanced with a solid frontcourt as well as very strong perimeter play,” says Rickenbach. “Michigan is simply overmatched here. This is especially true because of having to play at the Kohl Center. This game should be a blowout. I honestly see it no other way.”

NCAA BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (covers.com): boston college has chemistry problem.

 
  There are few academic disciplines that are more important to breaking down college basketball teams as that of chemistry. Players can be measured for their size and speed, and there are statistics for all sorts of performance categories. But how they come together as a unit is not necessarily a simple mathematical evaluation of the various parts. That can be oh so important when there are personnel changes, and Boston College becomes Exhibit A right now. The Eagles were a Sweet 16 team LY, finally getting eliminated in a heart-breaking overtime loss to Villanova, and so much of that was about chemistry. Al Skinner had the proper pieces to execute his flex offense and physical defensive schemes, and even with the losses of Craig Smith and Louis Hinnant there was the right mix to make another serious run this season, as evidenced by a 5-0 opening to A.C.C. play. But then came season-ending suspensions last week to starting center Sean Williams, arguably the best defender in the nation at his position, and reserve forward Akida McClain, and they may have gone from being another Sweet 16 candidate to a team that might not even be tournament worthy at all. Should the loss of one starter mean that much? It does when the team is built more around chemistry than it is individual talent. And it is also where some big edges can be found in the schedule ahead, because it may take the betting markets quite some time to look past the 13-5 record that they still sport, and to the team that they really are. The tipoff to this actually came long before Saturday’s disappointing loss at Clemson. Over Christmas week Boston College played three games short-handed, with John Oates missing at Kansas; Oates and Jared Dudley in a home game vs. Duquesne; and Dudley sitting out at home vs. Northeastern. The Eagles were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in those games, losing to the spread by a shocking 43 points. They lost outright to Duquesne in overtime as 20.5 point favorites, one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. Fast forward to Saturday at Clemson. It was an ugly 20 point loss on the scoreboard, and another decisive ATS failure when they did not have all hands on deck. There simply was no ability to absorb the losses of Williams and McClain, with Dudley and Tyrese Rice being forced to play the full 40 minutes, Sean Marshall 38, and the bench producing one point, while not grabbing a single rebound. You can not survive in the A.C.C. without depth. The upcoming schedule will absolutely take a toll on the Eagle starters, especially based on the physical style that they have to enforce in order to be successful. Instead of the usual adjustment of a couple of points in the betting lines for the loss of players like Williams and McClain, we may well be looking at an entirely different basketball team. In this chemistry lesson, the loss of one element has created a different structure. Boston College may not resemble those earlier solid A.C.C. performances in any way in the week’s to come, and yet the fact that they have a lot of good math behind their name so far this season will still anchor the betting lines to their previous base. Sometimes much bigger adjustments are called for, and that is why this is such an important discipline – we are looking at a new team right now; one that must be measured on its current abilities, and not earlier performances that no longer carry any real meaning.

NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): how to bet on college basketball.
 
 Bryan Leonard dug through some of his old material and came up with several rules to follow while betting college basketball. Keep these in mind when betting the green and you’ll see a return on your investment in college basketball.

Of no-names and schedules Basketball fans love the big name teams. Duke, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams. This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper`s best friend. And sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. One week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and – in my judgment – a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I looked at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was a plus-8 1/2 road ‘dog. This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke – all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awfully difficult schedule. The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my clients and I didn’t need them to win – just cover the +8 1/2-points. The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines. Conference play This is when the second season for handicappers begins. Once college basketball conference play goes into full swing, it allows bettors to gauge statistics and match-ups. Many teams schedule a string of non-conference cupcake games early in the season in order to run up big scores and easy victories. However, they could then falter quickly as they step up in competition during January and February conference play. Virginia and Hofstra come to mind this past season - two teams that got off to strong starts but struggled as the competition got better. Other times, teams schedule difficult non-conference games early in the season - and sometimes take serious beatings - to toughen them up for conference action. Jon Chaney’s Temple Owls have done this often over the last decade. It’s essential for handicappers to utilize power ratings and carefully check records versus quality opponents. Another factor to take into account when ‘capping conference play is that teams will play each other more than once. It’s important to look back on any recent meetings and see what took place. If one team blew out another, look at the box score to see why. And ask questions. Did one team dominate the glass? Or did the opponent simply have a bad shooting game? This can mean the rematch will be equally one-sided, or it could mean the team that lost badly is out for revenge. Looking back at past years helps as well. You can find a trend where each team rolls over another on its home court, which happened for several years with ACC rivals Duke and Maryland. Or you might find that one team has the other’s number and consistently gets the cover whether they’re at home or at the other team’s place. Check conference standings, too. Conference games likely have greater importance for teams that can’t afford any more losses. In addition, you can find teams that have already fallen out of the conference race, which means they might begin packing it in, especially on the road against stronger conference foes. Conference play offers a more level playing field than the early season. For those with an eye for it, the "second season" can assist an astute handicapper with more angles than earlier non-conference action. Tourney tips Many times during the season and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tournament play. In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a big underdog and know their season is over. This is far less likely in late March, however, as good teams keep winning and are motivated to play all out. Road play: It’s important to check home/road play for college hoop teams. This is also something to keep up on from the Sweet 16 on. Some teams have a noticeable weakness on the road, such as poor road defense, or they consistently fail to cover when away from home. Most college tournament games this time of year are neutral courts, but it can be helpful to check both teams’ road play when analyzing individual match-ups to get a sense of how they play away from home. Non-conference competition: Some helpful sports wagering web sites have this broken down in easy-to-read columns. On the other hand, you must take this a step further, too - examine next who those non-conference games were against. If they were against all small-school teams with poor records, then it’s not as helpful as if they played against top-notch non-conference opponents. Illinois faced Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Wake Forest and at Arkansas last year and whipped them all by double digits. Location: Sometimes teams luck out by getting placed in a tourney bracket that is close to home. North Carolina, for instance, opened the tourney last year playing in Charlotte against Oakland (Mich.) and Iowa State, two teams that traveled a long way. The Tar Heels won by 28 and 27 points, respectively. A close location can mean more fans in the stands cheering for a particular team, giving it a slight edge. Their role as a ‘dog?: Check how some teams fared as an underdog during the season. Two teams that have already been knocked out of tournament play are Cincinnati and Mississippi State, clubs that combined to go 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS as a ‘dog this season. When the pressure is on against top-notch teams, some clubs simply can’t step it up. History: Has this team been here before? Some teams are new to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Check their recent history. Is this a surprise team that came out of nowhere to get this far? Does their starting five have any experience at all in late March tournament play? Digging into various details can help turn a profit during March Madness. NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (associated press): irish point guard suspended. Notre Dame point guard Kyle McAlarney was suspended from school for his arrest last month on a marijuana possession charge, his mother said Tuesday.
"I'm ashamed of the university. My son is a great kid. He did not deserve this. The punishment did not fit the crime."
-- Janice McAlarney
Janice McAlarney said her son was told Monday that he could not continue to attend classes this semester. She said she's not sure what the suspension means for his future. "All I know is my son was suspended yesterday from school and he's headed home," she said from her home in Staten Island, N.Y. "I don't know anything else beyond that. All I know is I'm ashamed of how they did this. ... I'm ashamed of the university. My son is a great kid. He did not deserve this. The punishment did not fit the crime." A message seeking comment from Kyle McAlarney was left on his cell phone. Bernie Cafarelli, Notre Dame sports information director, said neither she nor coach Mike Brey could comment because of privacy laws. The team was in New York for a game Tuesday night against St. John's. McAlarney, a sophomore, started the first 12 games this season for the Irish (16-3) and averaged 10.3 points. The Irish (No. 21 ESPN/USA Today, No. 22 AP) have gone 5-2 since McAlarney was suspended from playing after his arrest on Dec. 29. Two weeks ago, the 19-year-old McAlarney entered a pretrial diversion program that would allow him to have the charge dismissed in a year if he passes random drug tests and stays out of trouble. McAlarney was arrested after marijuana was discovered in his car last month during a routine traffic stop a few blocks from campus. The arrest came hours after he scored a career-high 21 points against Rider. McAlarney, who began spring semester classes last week, had continued to practice with the team until Monday. Don Wycliff, the university's associate vice president for news and information, said he couldn't comment. But speaking about general university policy, he said a student dismissed for violating university rules could apply for readmission depending on the penalty handed down by the office of the vice president for student affairs. "There's no guarantee it will be granted, but they can reapply for admission," he said.
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (associated press): baylor coach has surgery. Baylor coach Scott Drew underwent an appendectomy Tuesday but expects to be on the bench when the Bears play Kansas, the university said. The 36-year-old Drew, in his third season with Baylor, was recovering at home Tuesday night. The Bears face the eighth-ranked Jayhawks on Wednesday night in Waco. FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): top ten ats teams as of 1/24/07.
  
1. Indiana St.
2. Idaho State
3. Manhattan
4. Davidson
5. Mississippi St.
6. West Virginia
7. Butler
8. Idaho
9. Mississippi
10. Buffalo
 
FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (associated press.com) iona only winless d-1 team.
 
  Michael Van Schaick scored 23 points to lead Fairfield past Iona 70-67 in overtime Tuesday night. The loss was the Gaels' 20th straight dating to last season, extending the school record for consecutive defeats. Iona (0-19, 0-9 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference) remains the lone winless team in Division I. Mamadou Diakhate added 13 points for Fairfield (6-15, 4-5), which recorded its second overtime victory in nine days over the Gaels. It was Diakhate's 3-pointer, his first attempt this season from that distance, with 2.6 seconds left in regulation that forced overtime. Devon Clarke led Iona with 18 points and Alejo Rodriguez added 13. The Gaels committed 29 turnovers to Fairfield's 16. Fairfield trailed 51-42 on Clarke's basket and free throw with 9:50 remaining in the second half, but the Stags made it a game with a 13-3 run over the next five minutes. Fairfield coach Ed Cooley was hit with a technical foul as the teams left the court at halftime. Iona's Milan Prodanovic opened the second half by converting two fouls shots off the technical to extend the Gaels lead to 37-27. But Fairfield responded with 11 straight points over the next 3:41, taking a 38-37 lead on Anthony Johnson's free throw. The Gaels led 35-27 at halftime after erasing an early eight-point deficit and holding the Stags to one field goal over the final 9:52. COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (associated press) knight tees off on media again. Bob Knight hasn't mellowed since passing Dean Smith as the winningest coach in Division I men's basketball when it comes to dealing with the media. During the weekly Big 12 coaches' conference call on Monday, the Texas Tech coach sparred with each of his questioners. The sideline chin lift to get a player's attention during an early season victory over Gardner-Webb was "a situation" created by the media, he said. Knight responded to the next question, about the historical impact of the 3-point shot, with a curt reply. He then deflected a question about his role as a reference for Kansas State coach Bob Huggins. He called it a private conversation -- if it even happened -- with Wildcats' athletic director Tim Weiser. "Who I talk to and who I don't talk to privately is just what it is," he said. "I don't talk about phone conversations." A follow-up question about the limited playing time of junior forward Darryl Dora was the apparent last straw: The phone line went dead on Knight's end. The offending question: "What's it like to be in your doghouse?" The assembled media had plenty of time to ponder that query, with Knight dropping off just three minutes into his scheduled 10-minute time slot. Knight moved past Smith, the former North Carolina coach, with a home victory over New Mexico on Jan. 1. Knight has since added three wins for a career record of 883-355 in 41 years at Army, Indiana and Texas Tech (14-5, 3-1).
NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (associated press): air force crushes tcu. That's the formula that's working for the Air Force Falcons, who are showing you don't need any superstars who can jump out of the gym to be one of the country's best college basketball teams. "We've got a bunch of cadets who are just playing their butts off," coach Jeff Bzdelik said. On Tuesday night, the Falcons (No. 13 ESPN/USA Today; No. 13 AP) leveled TCU 72-39, using hustle on defense and discipline on offense from tip-off to buzzer to subdue the bigger, taller, faster, stronger and thoroughly befuddled Horned Frogs. "Their teamwork is their size and their skills are their talent," TCU coach Neil Dougherty said. "They play very well as a team, but they're also more athletic than they're usually given credit for." Dan Nwaelele scored 13 points and Matt McCraw and Tim Anderson each added 11 as the Falcons (19-2, 6-1 Mountain West) cruised to their 27th straight home win, the second-best streak in the nation. The Falcons turned the tables on TCU, which brought the league's best field-goal percentage defense (41 percent) into Clune Arena but were quickly overwhelmed at both ends of the court. While the Horned Frogs (10-8, 2-4) couldn't find an offensive rhythm, shooting 32 percent, the Falcons were hitting from all over, making 60 percent of their shots in the first half and 63 percent in the second. "It was great to see us drop down some early shots," Bzdelik said. "It really put them behind the 8-ball a little bit and it got the crowd really into it and it gave us confidence." The Falcons defied complacency as well as the law of averages by shooting even better in the second half despite Bzdelik emptying his bench beginning with more than seven minutes left. "Well, if you slack off there's potential for the other team to come back in the game. We didn't want that to happen tonight," Nwaelele said. Anderson said it all started on defense. "We tried to stay consistent throughout the game and offense is always a variable," he said. "But defense can keep you in those games when you're missing shots, so on the defensive end we tried to stay consistent. Energy on defense, that leads to quicker cuts and those layups." The Horned Frogs, outrebounded 32-22 by the smaller, feistier Falcons, doomed themselves to a fourth straight loss with a slow start, making just one jumper, one layup and one free throw in the first 13½ minutes and falling behind 19-6. Air Force pushed its lead to 33-15 at halftime, closing with an impressive 8-0 run over the final three minutes, including a 3-pointer from John Frye, who picked up the slack with seven first-half points when starting center Nick Welch got into foul trouble and took a seat just 5 minutes in. "They do guard you very well, but when you get some open looks, you have to convert them," Dougherty said. "Every time they got an open look they scored. We weren't able to do that." Air Force, coming off a season-low 39-percent shooting performance against San Diego State on Saturday, led by as many as 35. Brent Hackett's nine points led the Horned Frogs, who made just five baskets in the first half.