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February 21, 2007 - SPORTS NEWS - SPECIAL EDITION MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL SPORTS NEWS

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): College hoops report card.

Oklahoma State
I’m seeing something in Sean Sutton’s future. A seven, no, eight letter word for Oklahoma State basketball. Road fade? No, those are two words, although at 0-5 ATS, and losses by an average of 19.2 points, I am beginning to wonder if I misread the message.
Collapse? Hmm, could be. After a 15-1 start, maybe all the running has gotten to the Cowboys. We all knew their depth was a problem but that isn’t it. That cupcake (7 words) schedule certainly didn't help. Entering Tuesday night, the Cowboys are the Big 12’s worst bet at 7-11-1 ATS.
Wait, here it comes: Turnover. Yes, that’s exactly it. I should have known. Turnovers are more prevalent with the Cowboys than spurs, at least with these bull riders anyways. Their 440 turnovers lead the Big 12 by a landslide while their 0.90 assist to turnover ratio is third-worst in the conference. The numbers may be padding Mario Boggan's stats but without a dependable point guard it simply doesn't work.
We expected more from Byron Eaton this season (and last) but the sophomore continues to disappoint. He's had five turnovers in each of his last two games but sadly, they weren't of the apple pastry variety. Eaton, or "Eatin'" as I call him, has developed such a love for cheeseburgers says Sutton, that it's cutting into his playing time. Eatin's weight has bounced around as much as his minutes, forcing Sutton to strap a 20-pound vest on his point guard during practice.
Pathetic? I think so.
Valuable? Hardly.
Grade: C
Wisconsin
Am I the only one hounding my bookie for the squib on my Bo Ryan futures bet? You know the one that said Ryan would lead the Badgers to a No.1 ranking before Brett Favre retired from the Green Bay Packers? No? I’ll tell you it’s been a trying few years. Favre almost retired like five times and the Badgers were as stable as the Packers’ offense line.
Yet here we are. Wisconsin uses Florida’s loss to Vanderbilt to jump into top spot in the nation and the heavens rejoice. But wait a minute. My bookie is telling me that because Wiskey isn’t No. 1 in both the Coach’s and AP polls I can’t collect. I smell a lawsuit because if you’ve been following the Badgers, let alone betting them, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be tops in both polls and your power ratings.
Wisconsin has three top 25 wins, including two over team in the top 5, is undefeated at home and is 8-2 on the road. Better yet, the Badgers are 6-2-1 against the number in their last nine games. Besides North Carolina, I can’t think of any other top 5 team that has been more profitable or dependable than the Badgers. Oh yeah. And here’s the kicker: they already beat Ohio State! 
The rematch is Saturday but you’ll hear enough about that in the coming days as everyone debates this phenomenon. I won’t bore you anymore.
Grade: A
Oregon
It’s time to draw straws. I know, nobody wants to bet Oregon right now. But pick the straw that broke Aaron Brooks’ back. Was it UCLA? Maybe that 31 he dropped in the overtime win over Washington State finally did him in. I’m not sure, I’m not a doctor. But I know that Brooks is not the same player who carried Oregon through the first part of the season and to upset over UCLA and the Cougars.
He’s topped 20 points just once over his last six games – all failed Oregon paydays – and is shooting 35 percent during that span. Most of his 25 points on Saturday (the most Brooks has scored since Oregon’s last payday) came once Stanford had already secured the win. Excluding that game, Brooks is shooting a woeful 29.5 percent – not exactly the kind of numbers that will carry a team through the Pac-10.
Where Oregon goes from here, I’m not sure. Three straight home games to finish the season may help Brooks rest up for the conference championship run; if there’s any gas left in the tank.
Grade: C
Wyoming
Is there a better moneymaker in conference play than the Wyoming Cowboys? Seriously, the only Mountain West games Wyoming hasn’t covered was the brawl with New Mexico and the subsequent game versus Air Force, which the Cowboys played without suspended forward Joseph Taylor.
Even weirder, Wyoming has been favored only twice in 12 conference games and covered both spreads.
And the underdog of the year award goes to….
The beef of Wyoming’s schedule came early during conference play when the rest of the MWV was searching for their respective identities. Combine that with a very competitive Cowboys team (average margin of loss in MWV play - 5 points) and voila, bankroll soufflé.
But if cartoons taught me anything, soufflés are very unstable. Hence four straight games against sub.500 opponents could mean the end of Wyoming’s value. Two of those games are at home, so you know the Cowboys will be favored. Wyoming will be dogged in Colorado State but definitely not in Fort-Worth against conference doormat Texas Christian.
Grade: B-

NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (covers.com): Mid-major news and notes.

Big conference basketball gets a lot of coverage around here, but what about the little guys? Here are some helpful notes on your mid-major wagers as conference play winds down.
Bradley Braves
All the talk in the Missouri Valley Conference is about Southern Illinois and Creighton, but Bradley is quietly making a case for a second straight NCAA Tournament bid. The Braves have won and covered in three straight games and in four of their last five.
They also hold the unique distinction of winning and covering against three different conference leaders this year. Bradley beat Wright State (Horizon) in non-conference play and Southern Illinois (MVC) at the beginning of conference play. The Braves completed the triple crown on Saturday when they won on the road against Virginia Commonwealth (CAA) in their BracketBusters game.
Bradley is 16-10-1 against the spread this season and 8-3 against the spread at home. They finish the year with home games against Northern Iowa and Indiana State.
Buffalo Bulls
Defense is a problem for the Bulls right now. They have allowed back-to-back opponents to score more than 90 points on their home court and they are now allowing 71 points per game. Opponents are also shooting 46 percent from the floor.
“Detroit really dominated us on the glass and their perimeters forced us into real matchup issues,” coach Reggie Witherspoon said after Buffalo’s most recent loss. “We weren’t tough enough in the trenches to keep them from being effective.”
Buffalo is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games after starting the year on a 10-4 run. Things aren’t going to get any easier from here on out. The Bulls finish the season against arguably the four best teams in the MAC with road games against Kent State and Miami-Ohio followed by home games against Akron and Ohio.
Davidson Wildcats
No one ever talks about Davidson in conversations about the country’s best mid-major teams, but the Wildcats (with straight up wins in 20 of their last 21 games and a 17-7-1 record against the spread overall) can certianly make a case.
Davidson is a lock to make the Southern Conference tournament that will determine its NCAA Tournament status and will be wary of losing its focus. They showed signs of it on Monday, trailing conference bottom-dweller Wofford by four at halftime before winning 80-73 as an 18-point favorite.
The Wildcats finish their schedule at home against Furman (14-13) and on the road against The Citadel (7-20).
Drexel Dragons
The Dragons asserted themselves as a team to keep an eye on entering tournament play with their performance in Saturday’s BracketBusters. Drexel went to Creighton and beat the Bluejays 64-58 as an 8 ½-point underdog. Creighton was 12-1 straight up and 7-4 against the spread at home before their visit from Drexel.
The win has moved the Dragons from just another mid-major team to a small blip on the country’s radar – but there is no doubt now that they have the full attention of the rest of the Colonial Athletic Conference, especially the three teams ahead of them in the standings.
Luckily for the Dragons, their two remaining conference games are against second level CAA teams, William & Mary and Towson. Finishing the regular season strong would go a long way to make a case for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Evansville Purple Aces
The Purple Aces have lots of motivation right now with two games left. They are currently seventh in the MVC and will avoid the need to play their way into the conference tournament if they can finish sixth.
Evansville is currently one game behind a fading Northern Iowa team in the conference standings and finishes the regular season with road games against Drake and Southern Illinois.
Idaho State Bengals
Few teams have ever had a stretch of games like the Bengals are about to go though. They play four games in six days to finish off the season starting on Thursday against Eastern Washington.
Idaho State then travels to Portland State on Saturday before back-to-back games against Montana and Montana State on Monday and Tuesday. The Bengals have to win at least two of those games to clinch a spot in the Big Sky tournament.
Portland State Vikings
Portland State’s only two remaining games are its most important of the season. The Vikings currently hold the sixth and final tournament spot in the Big Sky standings, one game ahead of Eastern Washington. They play their final two games at home against Sacramento State and Idaho State.
Santa Clara Broncos
Move over, Gonzaga. There is a new king of the WCC. Santa Clara upset the Bulldogs 84-73 as a 7-point underdog in Spokane last Monday. The win moved the Broncos one game ahead in the WCC.
The win made national news – it snapped Gonzaga’s 50-game home winning streak – and left Santa Clara giving away too many points in its next game. The Broncos beat San Diego 80-72, but failed to cover the 9 ½-point spread.
Santa Clara finishes the season with back-to-back road games against Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine.
Temple Owls
The Owls’ lack of size continues to cost them games. Temple was outrebounded 40-29 in its loss to George Washington on Saturday and 43-28 in its loss to La Salle last Wednesday. The Owls lost and failed to cover both games.
Temple doesn’t have a starter taller than 6-foot-6 and has only one rotation player taller than that. Forward Sergio Olmos, who averages 2.3 rebounds per game in 13 minutes, is 6-foot-10.

 

NCAA BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (covers.com): Maryland's postseason push proves profitable for Terps backers.


 
   Better late than never for the Maryland Terrapins. After opening ACC play with a 2-5 record, the Terps have made a major push for the postseason by winning three straight and four of their last five games.
Wins over Duke, North Carolina State and Clemson improved Maryland to 6-6 in ACC play, but more importantly helped the Terps get over the 20-win plateau. Weak records have kept Maryland from earning a berth in the NCAA tournament the last two seasons.
"I feel we have our swagger back," guard D.J. Strawberry told The Washington Times. "We're playing with a little swagger, a little chip on our shoulder. We're just going out and believing we can win."
The confidence comes at the right time for Maryland, who is gaining national recognition for its recent efforts. The Terps received 10 votes in the Coach's Poll this week. While those weren't enough to get the Terps back into the Top 25, Maryland's efforts were noticed by bettors.
“Right now this team has a chemistry that is coming together the right way,” says David Malinsky of Covers Experts. “Those last two road wins were their two best performances of the season, and with their confidence at a high level we should see solid performances from them.”
Most of the credit goes to Maryland's relentless attack of the opposing baskets instead of settling for perimeter shots. Guards Strawberry and Grieves Vasquez have been the wheels driving the Terrapins offense and are averaging a combined 33 points per game during their three-game run.
Vasquez, a freshman point guard, has improved all season and is giving Coach Gary Williams a steady option with the basketball. He has 20 assists to only eight turnovers over the last three games and matched a season-high of nine steals during that span.
Maryland's inspired play is a breath of fresh air for veteran players, like Strawberry, who have settled for NIT appearances rather than making the field of 65 for the National Tournament. The need to finish their college careers with an NCAA game on their resume hangs heavily over the Terrapin seniors and gives them more incentive to finish the final three games of the season without any doubt.
“We hear the players talking about this a lot, and about how it is creating an extra layer of motivation for them,” says Malinsky. “The funny thing is that some of the quotes look identical to what they were saying last February, after they had to settle for the NIT the previous season. But this time around it looks like they might be able to get over the hump.”
The Terps take on the Florida State Seminoles tonight. Oddsmakers have set Maryland as an 8 ½-point home favorite. Following this game, the Terrapins will take on ACC powerhouses Duke and North Carolina before closing out conference play against North Carolina State at home.
"We have to be tough," Coach Williams told reporters. "We have to be very mature to understand we haven't reached our goal."
Books opened today’s total at 149 ½. Bettors can watch all the action at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN Full Court, which will be broadcasting live from the Comcast Center in College Park, Maryland.

 
NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS- (associated press): florida looses #1 ranking after loss.
 The Florida Gators handled their first loss in more than two months as expected: They vowed to learn from it, improve and not let it happen again.
They could find out whether losing helped Wednesday night against South Carolina. Oddsmakers the Gators listed as 19-point favorites with the total set at 134.
''It was tough,'' center Al Horford said. ''It puts that sour taste in your mouth. I don't like that taste. Hopefully we won't have to experience it again. It puts a lot of things in perspective. We can't take things for granted. We figured that out. We got to get back focused, get back to the things we were doing before. It was definitely an eye-opener for us.''
The third-ranked Gators (24-3, 11-1 Southeastern Conference, 9-10-1 ATS) had won 17 in a row, tying the longest winning streak in school history, before falling 83-70 at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Nearly everything Florida did right during the streak - playing stout defense, taking good shots and shooting a high percentage - went wrong against the Commodores.
Vandy got too many easy baskets inside, too many open looks outside and forced Florida into too many long-range shots. Even then, the Gators might have survived without a season-high 22 turnovers and so many missed 3-pointers.
Florida was 8-of-21 from 3-point range, with starters Lee Humphrey, Taurean Green and Corey Brewer a combined 7-of-19.
''We lost. There's nothing we can do,'' forward Chris Richard said. ''The madder we get, the more upset we get, it won't change anything. It's basically just look past it and learn from our mistakes and come in with better focus.''
It starts against the Gamecocks (13-12, 3-9), a team Florida routed 84-50 last month.
''I expect us to come out and play better than we ever have before,'' Richard said. ''We lost this game and we need to go in and learn from it. I think we had a few signs in the past that we can't play the way we've been playing. We were bound to learn eventually.''
The Gators, whose previous loss came Dec. 3 at Florida State, had gotten behind early in several games. They rallied from 11-point deficits against Alabama-Birmingham and against Vanderbilt in the first meeting, and were down 18 last week against Alabama before tying it and pulling away late.
They dug another hole against the Commodores, one too big to overcome.
''I think this is a good thing,'' coach Billy Donovan said. ''One of the things you hear coaches complain about a lot is that sometimes players don't take losses as hard as you'd like to see them take them. I think our guys take losses very hard. I think our guys really want to win. They play the game the right way. Winning is important, the team is important to them. So yeah, we've got to be able move past and learn from what we did.''
Donovan figured the regular season would play out one of two ways. Either the defending national champions would continue to win and face questions about needing to lose heading into the postseason, or they would stumble and get asked about being off track as they approached the conference and NCAA tournaments.
''The game works like this: 'Billy, do you think you guys need to lose a game? Is there too much pressure on you guys? Would a loss be good for this team?''' Donovan said. ''Now we've lost a game. It's, 'What's wrong? Is the train off the tracks? Is this team heading down the sewer? What's the problem?'
''What happens is that we take things to such an extreme level that the most important thing for our team is to learn from what happened and to try to get better. ... This could be helpful to our team growing and developing.''

NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (covers.com): two illinois players involved in car crash.
 Before last weekend’s loss to Indiana, Illinois head coach Bruce Weber had to laugh at all the setbacks his team has faced this season.
Recruiting struggles, suspensions and injuries all contributed to January's 3-5 start to Big Ten play. Just when it seemed that Weber and his players were getting over these issues, winning four of their last six games, the laughing came to an end.
Late last Monday night, reserve players Jamar Smith and Brian Carlwell were in a car accident that took both players out for the season and left Carlwell fighting for his life. The 6-foot-11 freshman was finally released from hospital on Friday after being in serious condition with a severe concussion.
The accident came during a lull in the team's schedule and the Illini had the entire week off to look after its injured players and prepare for Sunday's game against Northwestern. The Illini won 48-37 but failed to cover as 13-point favorites.
While Weber has been able to overcome personal and team issues in the past, this recent incident could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
“I don't think [Illinois can recover from this],” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “The Illini really needed more scoring from Smith coming into this season. The fact he was only at eight points per game was disappointing enough but now those points are gone.”
The loss of Smith and Carlwell leaves Illinois’ bench very thin heading into the home stretch of conference play. Carlwell’s contributions weren't immense as a first-year player, but the team will miss Smith’s numbers and support in the Illini backcourt.
The second-year shooting guard led the Big Ten in 3-point percentage last season but ran into a sophomore slump in 2006-07. He was averaging only four points in conference play on 22.7 percent shooting. His 3-point shooting dipped as well, hitting just 15 of his 59 attempts from beyond the arc in Big Ten competition.
Reserves Calvin Brock and Trent Meacham, both sophomore guards, will now log the most minutes off the bench for Illinois. Brock is scoring almost six points per game while Meacham is averaging just over five points.
"A lot of people have had to take new roles this season," Meacham told the Chicago Tribune. "I've had some games where I've played 40 minutes and some where I've played 10. Getting 40 minutes a game early helped me get used to the system and gave Calvin and myself some confidence."
Warren Carter, the team's leading-scorer, missed practice on Thursday because of a sprained ankle. Also, Brian Randle and C.J. Jackson both missed parts of practice last week because of the flu. Jackson did not log any minutes in Sunday's ATS loss.
The Illini close out Big Ten play with a home game against Michigan on Wednesday before visiting Penn State and Iowa. Illinois remains in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid, currently sitting tied for third place in the Big Ten at 7-6 alongside the Iowa Hawkeyes.
“They’re fortunate they don't face the top-tier teams here late in the season but having the last two games on the road plus a home game against a respectable Michigan team will make things tough on the Illini,” says Rickenbach. “Illinois will need a lot from its frontcourt after having its backcourt weakened by this accident.”
Oddsmakers have Illinois listed as a 8-point favorite with the total set at 119 1/2 for today's game. Tipoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET.

NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (associated press): michigan's abrams arrested.

 Michigan captain Lester Abram was arrested following a traffic stop in Ingham County because of an outstanding warrant, the sheriff's department said.
Abram was pulled over for speeding early Monday on Interstate 96 about 45 miles from Ann Arbor, Ingham County sheriff's Lt. Eric Trojanowicz told The Detroit News, and he was found to have a suspended license and no proof of insurance.
Abram was taken to Ann Arbor, where he was released, the newspaper said.
"We're aware of the situation and looking into it," said Tom Wywrot, Michigan's assistant director of athletic media relations.
Abram practiced Monday afternoon. He has started 26 of the team's 27 games this season and averages 9.3 points and 3.9 rebounds.

FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): top ten ats teams as of 2/21/07.
  
1. Butler 
2. Mississippi 
3. Davidson
4. Weber St.
5. West Virginia
6. Indiana St. 
7. Stanford
8. Duquesne
9. Southern California 
10. Kansas St.
 

 
 

FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (espn.com) louisville star won't play vs st. johns.

 
 Louisville head coach Rick Pitino announced that starting forward Juan Tello Palacios is suffering from back spasms and likely won't play against St. John's on Wednesday night, according to a published report.
"Back spasms --- I have them all the time," Pitino told the Louisville Courier Journal. "It could be a week, it could be a couple of days. I just don't know."
Palacios, a 6-foot-8 junior, is averaging 9.4 points and 5.7 rebounds as a starter for the Cardinals (19-8, 9-4).
Before the news of the injury, everything seemed to be going Louisville's way. After recent wins at Pittsburgh and Marquette, the Cardinals earned a No. 20 ranking in the latest AP Top 25 poll.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (associated press) high school freshman already chooses washington state.

  Ephrata High School freshman Patrick Simon has decided to play college basketball at Washington State, after he graduates in three more seasons.
The Cougars on Monday made a scholarship offer to the 6-foot-7 Simon, who is only 14 and presumably still growing.
Simon, 14, leads his team in scoring and rebounding and orally accepted the offer from the Cougars, who are ranked ninth in the nation in a breakout season.
"I've thought about it quite a bit and it all came to how good they've been doing this season, they're No. 9 now, and how coach [Tony] Bennett really made the team a top team," Simon told The Spokesman-Review.
"I decided right from the beginning that if I was going to commit to a school that I wasn't going to back out of it," he said. "That's how I think about it. And it is kind of scary to think about it, that I'm only a freshman and it's a long ways away."
His high school coach, Brandon Evenson, said Simon is on par with the best players he's seen out of central Washington.
"This kid, he's special," Evenson said. "And he only can get better.
"He can flat-out score from anywhere on the floor," Evenson said. "He's the type of kid that's going to play defense and fit into Coach Bennett's system nicely."
Simon's father, Jerry, is superintendent of the Ephrata School District and a WSU alumnus for both undergraduate and graduate work.
"We're really happy that he's agreed to play for WSU," Jerry Simon said. "Tony Bennett is a fine, Christian man. I've been to WSU and watched some games and so forth and I've seen how well he treats his players."
Bennett has not seen Simon play in person, but assistant coach Matt Woodley saw him play in the last week before the Cougars offered the scholarship. No one from the program can comment on Simon's commitment until he signs a letter of intent, which would happen in fall 2009 at the earliest.

NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (associated press): kentucky ens skid.
 Kentucky's fans may have been concerned by their team's flirtation with some dubious history Tuesday night. Kentucky's coach insists he was not.
Even when the Wildcats were down 16 to Louisiana State, the last-place team in the Southeastern Conference's Western Division, Tubby Smith says he was confident his team would pull through. His reasoning: While the shots were ugly, the looks were relatively good.
"I thought we played hard," Smith said. "When you're not making the shots, it looks like you're playing lethargic."
Kentucky certainly woke up when it counted -- the final five minutes to snap a three-game losing streak with a 70-63 victory.
The Wildcats (19-8, 8-5 SEC) hadn't lost four straight since the 1990 season when they dropped five in a row. The players had no interest in making that kind of history, even though some said they didn't know about it.
"I probably couldn't take that either -- four losses," guard Ramel Bradley said.
Terry Martin's jumper tied the game at 58 with five minutes left, but Bradley followed with an underhanded layup to put Kentucky in front for good and start a 10-0 Kentucky run.
Randolph Morris had 20 points and 10 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season. He also became the 53rd Wildcat to surpass 1,000 points in his career. Jodie Meeks matched a career high with 18 points, and Bradley added 16.
LSU (14-13, 3-10) dropped its 11th straight at Rupp Arena and almost certainly must win the SEC tournament to advance to the NCAA tourney a year after making the Final Four.
However, LSU certainly gave the Wildcats a scare, even without its leading scorer. Glen Davis didn't make the trip to Lexington because of a muscle strain in his right leg that he suffered last week against Arkansas.
Tasmin Mitchell filled in admirably in Davis' absence, leading the Tigers with 19 points. Martin added 16, but LSU couldn't generate much additional offense.
The Wildcats scored from the field only once in the opening eight minutes, missing 11 of their first 12 shots before Morris banked in a second-chance layup.
LSU wasn't much better but used a 10-0 run to build an early 13-4 lead. The Tigers stretched the lead to 16 points with just over seven minutes left, but the Wildcats chipped away -- and got a big boost from a technical foul on LSU coach John Brady.
Brady's technical, assessed for arguing a five-second call, resulted in five quick points for Meeks, who made both free throws and hit a 3-pointer on Kentucky's extra possession.
"I'm 52 years old," Brady said. "I started coaching when I'm 21. It's the first time in the history of my coaching career I've gotten a technical foul sitting on the bench."
Morris hit one of two free throws with 10 seconds to go in the half to cut LSU's lead to 31-30 at the break. Bobby Perry opened the second half with a 3 to give Kentucky its first lead.
"I didn't really notice we were down 16," Morris said. "That's pretty much how we think. No matter how much we're down, we don't let it affect how we think."