March 8 , 2007 - SPORTS NEWS - SPECIAL EDITION MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL SPORTS NEWS

FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS, FREE NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS, NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): Behind the bubble, Value teams in conference tourneys. With NCAA conference tournaments starting this week, some teams have painted themselves in a corner during the regular season and need a solid showing during these tournaments to get an at-large bid into the field of 65 for the NCAA tournament starting March 15. Covers.com has compiled some of the teams that have no choice but to go all-out this weekend if they are to keep their postseason dreams alive. Florida State Seminoles (7-9 ACC, 91-11 overall. 10-13-2 ATS) The Noles’ bad start to ACC play (0-3) and five-game losing skid during February (1-4 ATS) has them on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament. Their seven conference wins (including victories over a struggling Duke team and a Maryland squad in transition) aren’t enough to get by in the very competitive ACC. A win over Florida was the biggest feather in FSU's cap but blowout losses to Wisconsin and Pitt in out-of-conference play have the selection committee questioning its tourney toughness. If the Seminoles are to get it done in the ACC tournament they will need to ride all-conference forward Al Thornton and returning point guard Toney Doulgas, whose injury was the main reason for the team’s late conference collapse. Massachusetts Minutemen (13-3 ATL10, 23-7 overall. 13-11-1 ATS) UMass has done everything right this season except for beat the Xavier Musketeers in their one opportunity. Both teams have identical conference and overall records but with only one projected bid from the Atlantic 10, the nod would go to Xavier unless the Minutemen can put together an impressive conference tournament run. UMass has a solid enough RPI (55th in the NCAA) and an efficient offense that ranks in the Top 100 in the nation. Game-breaking forward Stephane Lame can be the difference for the Minutemen, averaging 13.5 points, 9.4 rebounds and 5.1 blocks per game this season. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-7 Big East, 21-8 overall. 15-9-1 ATS) The Mountaineers almost convinced skeptics that there was life after “Snogs” when they started Big East play 8-3. However, WVU hasn’t been able to come up big in must-win situations against teams above them in the standings. With no victories over the top six teams in the conference and its only convincing win coming against a UCLA team that traveled across the country for the Rivalry Week showdown, the jury is still out on this team. A solid showing in the grueling Big East tournament with some wins against top tier teams should be enough to get West Virginia into the Big Dance. The Mountaineers will turn to their 25th ranked defense and perimeter shooting to get the job done this weekend. Iowa Hawkeyes (9-7 Big Ten, 20-10 overall. 14-13-2 ATS) Currently in a three-way battle in the Big Ten along with Purdue and Illinois, the Hawkeyes are fighting for what could be one of only four bids to come out of the conference. The one thing holding Iowa back from an at-large bid is its lack of wins over the Big Ten’s top teams. The Hawkeyes out-of-conference schedule was laughable and its most impressive win, over Indiana, is nothing to write home about. Iowa does know how to get it done in the postseason, wining last year’s Big Ten championship and making it to the semifinal the year before. Adam Haluksa has proven to be a game changer and will look to take over after a poor showing in last year’s Big Ten tourney. Mississippi Rebels (8-8 SEC, 19-11 overall. 17-10 ATS) The entire SEC West could get a big goose egg when it comes to at-large tournament bids with Ole Miss and Mississippi State leading the division with .500 records. The Rebels were able to get fat on West division rivals but couldn’t keep up with the Eastern teams like Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Ole Miss can put up points and has four players scoring in double-figures this season, however, it all comes down to which team makes it past the first round to meet the Rebels, who got an undeserved bye into the second round. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-10 Big 12, 20-11 overall. 9-14-1 ATS) Big 12 play ruined everything for the Cowboys, who started the season 11-0 in non-conference competition. A 6-10 conference record quickly took OSU from guaranteed tourney team to the bubble as they headed into the Big 12 tournament. They failed to record a road win in conference play and barely scraped together wins over Kansas State, Texas Tech and Texas. Oklahoma State has the firepower to make waves in conference tourney but it comes from only two sources. Forward Mario Boggan is one of the best players in the country and guard JamesOn Curry’s scoring and playmaking has kept the Cowboys treading water for most of the season. The return of guard Obi Muonelo is huge for head coach Sean Sutton, who has been working with a short bench since losing Muonelo to injury in December. NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (covers.com): stanford guard to return. The Stanford Cardinal expect to have their starting point guard and No. 2 scoring threat, Anthony Goods, back in the lineup tonight against the Southern California Trojans for the their opening Pac-10 conference tournament game. Oddsmakers have the Cardinal listed as 2 ½-point underdogs with the total set 128. Goods has missed the last six games because of a nagging ankle injury. During that time Stanford has posted a 3-3 straight-up record and has gone 3-2-1 against the spread. “He will stretch the defense with his shot, and he gives us another defender,” Stanford coach Trent Johnson told the Stanford Daily. “But I don’t want to put expectations on the young man after all the time he’s missed.” Goods practiced on Monday, but he was limited to only non-contact drills. He told reporters after practice his ankle still felt sore. He is averaging 13 points in 23 games this season. Goods’ ankle injury is not the only health issue Stanford has to deal with. Several members of the team were afflicted with the stomach flu over the weekend. Two players, including starting center Robin Lopez, missed Monday’s practice, but the illness appears to behind the team now.
NCAA BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (associated press): Durant says ankle will be OK. Texas freshman Kevin Durant said his left ankle feels ''pretty good'' and should be ready for the Big 12 tournament. Durant twisted the ankle in the second half of No. 15 Texas' loss at Kansas on Saturday. He had 25 points in the first half but only seven in the second. ''It's feeling pretty good,'' Durant said Monday. ''It's just a little bit of rehab. I'll be all right.'' He was held out of practice but plans to return Tuesday. The Longhorns open Big 12 tournament play on Friday. Durant averages 25.1 points and 11.4 rebounds per game.
  
 
NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS- (associated press): Kansas has a different leader almost every night.  They pull on their jerseys and lace up their sneakers, take a few deep breaths and listen to one more pre-game pep talk. Then everybody removes his ego. Maybe that's why Kansas is ranked No. 3 in the country. ''The main thing we want is to win,'' All-Big 12 forward Julian Wright said. ''It's not how we win; it's not who scores. It's just everyone stepping up to make plays when they're needed.'' On a roster that's about eight deep with talented athletes who were courted by many of the nation's finest programs, almost everyone is a go-to guy. And they all seem perfectly happy to spread the wealth. newbodog.com has the Jayhawks listed at +600 to win the 2007 NCAA Tournament. After a disheartening home loss on Feb. 3 to Texas A&M, the Jayhawks (27-4) won their next six straight. A different player either led or tied for the team lead in scoring in each of those games, and only twice in that span did the same player lead the team in rebounds. Several times this season the Jayhawks have had five players score in double figures. Yet nobody seems to get jealous. Nobody whines about NBA scouts not getting to see what he can do. It's the sort of situation every coach dreams of, but only a few, such as Bill Self this year, are lucky enough to ever have. ''I think it's a testament to coach Self,'' said Wright, a 6-foot-8 sophomore, who had 17 points, 13 rebounds and a game-saving defensive play in the Big 12 title-clinching victory over Texas. ''This is pretty much how we've been the whole year, and last year, too. The reason I think we're doing so well this year is because everyone started buying into the concept last year.'' There is no question that all this balance has cost some players personal recognition. Although Kansas was the highest-ranked team in the conference most of the entire season and would eventually emerge as league champion, the Big 12 office recognized a Jayhawk as player of the week only twice. On one of those occasions, the Kansas player shared the award with someone else. ''Everyone wants to see everyone else do well. Everybody is just having fun and enjoying basketball. We've got individuals who are willing to sacrifice their own egos for the sake of the team,'' said junior guard Russell Robinson, the acknowledged leader of this senior-less squad. ''It's won us some games this year, and I think it's going to win us a lot more.'' The Jayhawks led the Big 12 in scoring margin at plus-18.2 points per game. But their top scorer, Brandon Rush at 14.1 points per game, was 16th in the conference. Similarly, Wright was the only Jayhawk among the top 15 rebounders, but Kansas led the Big 12 in total rebounding and rebound margin. ''Coach is the biggest reason for that,'' said Robinson. ''He strokes everybody and keeps us all happy.'' Self, who has won seven conference titles in three different leagues the past nine years, is proud of the balance Kansas has achieved. ''It means the other team can't concentrate its defense on just one or two guys,'' he said. But he also acknowledges there's a down side. ''It can mean that in the final minute or so when you need somebody to really step up and be that one guy that everybody looks to, you don't have anybody who's used to taking that role.'' It's not the sort of situation Darnell Jackson expected when the 6-foot-9 reserve center arrived on campus as a highly sought prep star from Oklahoma. ''When everybody first got here, I thought it would be bad chemistry,'' he said. ''I thought, 'These guys are going to worry about who's going to get the most points and who's going to get the most publicity.' But nobody cares about it. Nobody cares at all.'' NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS- (covers.com): how to handicap conference tournaments.  Betting on regular season NCAA basketball games and betting on conference tournament games can be as different as Duke and North Carolina. Some teams have everything on the line and others are just tuning up for the Big Dance, so bettors have to be careful not to fall victim to the nature of the beast. Most of the power conference tournaments start March 8 and handicappers are sharpening up for the equally sharp lines that oddsmakers will set for those four days before Selection Sunday. Covers.com interviewed a number of professional handicappers to find out what they weigh-in on the most when preparing to bet on NCAA conference tournaments. Recent play The most important factor handicappers consider when preparing for the conference tourneys is recent performance in the closing games of conference play, which can count more than full-season statistics. Schools that have struggled in their final regular season games, like the Florida Gators, may carry these skids into the tournament. On the other side, teams like Syracuse or Texas, which are finding their stride as the postseason approaches, can continue their hot play and ride it to an impressive showing in the conference tournament. These streaks as well as the team’s overall standing in the conference can affect how they approach the conference tournament. A school that has played consistently well all season and is a lock for the NCAA tournament will not rely so much on its conference tourney performance the way a team like last year’s Syracuse would. Desperate squads that need a conference title to get into the field of 65 can be the ones to watch. Fatigue The grueling pace of the conference tournament also plays in capper’s thinking, not to mention the added stress of travel and life on the road for players during the tournament weekend. Advancing into later rounds tests a team’s depth and durability, forcing them to play back-to-back games as well as live out of a suitcase during the tournament. Teams like Boston College, which have a short bench, are susceptible to fatigue while a team that has a lot of reserve talent like North Carolina, can overcome playing so many games in a short period of time. So many other factors can make or break a bet in conference play. The neutral site can erase any home-court advantage that aided teams over the season as well as impact a shooting accuracy because of the unfamiliar dimensions of the arena. Sweet revenge Any history between conference rivals can also play into the outcome of a game. A bad defeat or a buzzer-beating finish from the past can be enough to spark an opponent out for revenge. Teams like Georgetown, which suffered a tough loss to the Orange in the semifinals of the Big East tournament last season, have learned from those mistakes and will be out for retribution this year. A similar situation is when a team comes into the conference tournament with a chip on their shoulder because of a poor regular season. A team like LSU, which has underperformed in SEC play this season, could use these struggles as motivation and find their true form just in time to play spoiler in the conference tournament. Lineups and matchups Matchup problems on the roster and in experience can give bettors the edge they need in the postseason. A smaller team like Southern California could run into a towering frontcourt of a school like Stanford or a young team like Georgia Tech could be undone by a veteran-led squad like Virginia. The same could be said for coaching. A first-year coach, not wise to the tactics and strategies needed to go deep into the postseason, could fall victim to the know-how of a battle-tested, tournament savvy coach. During conference tournament play, sportsbooks adjust to the increase of public attention these games receive and make sure pointspreads and totals are at their sharpest. However, most handicappers agree that during this time of year, it is a bit easier to find value. Because of the wide array of intangibles that conference tournaments bring about, professional bettors find it easier to get the edge on the oddsmakers. But this value can’t be found without doing the homework on the competing teams and like always, handicapping is a day-to-day, situational science.
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (covers.com):betting rules leading into march madness.  Home-court advantage is always big in college basketball, but some bettors forget about it during conference tournaments because many of these events are held in big venues that aren’t a home court for any of the teams involved. But for teams lucky enough to host games in their gyms during these tournaments the rules for home-court advantage still apply. These squads know exactly how balls bounce off the rims or how loud the crowd can get, and they take full advantage of it. Higher seeds in the Big South, Horizon, Northeast and Patriot conferences play tournament games in their home gyms. This could translate into big paydays for teams like the Winthrop Eagles, Butler Bulldogs, Central Connecticut State Blue Devils and Holy Cross Crusaders. No. 2: Bet what you know With 30 conference championships going on at once, it’s tempting to place bets all over the board in search of the best value. But bettors have to be careful not to start laying cash on clubs they know little or nothing about. Nothing burns your money faster than a poorly researched bet on a team you never heard of in a conference you never watch. The best approach may be to stick to the conferences you followed all season, that way you know what you’re getting into when you lay your cash on the line. No. 3: Expect adjustments College basketball coaches are famous for making adjustments after a big loss and coming back at an opponent much better prepared the second or third time around. A perfect example is the two games split between the Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators this season. Florida hammered the Volunteers 94-78 (as a 15-point fave) on Feb. 3, only to watch Tennessee storm back in the rematch on Feb. 27 and beat the Gators 86-76 (as 3 ½-point dogs). In the first meeting Tennessee was caught flat footed in the opening half and trailed 50-24 at the end of 20 minutes. But they made the necessary adjustments in the second meeting and led by 19 after the first half. No. 4: Look for teams that could be overlooked Some clubs already have their March Madness spot locked up and may not approach the conference tournaments the same as teams that need a strong showing to earn a ticket to the Big Dance later this month. As a result some of the lower seeds are sure to be overlooked by conference heavyweights that aren’t worried about these tournaments.  No. 5: Don’t forget the basics Injuries, free-throw shooting and offensive and defensive efficiency stats are tools you used all season to make money betting on college basketball, so don’t ignore them now that the conference tournaments have started. The venues might have changed and the games are part of once-a-season tournaments instead of the regular season, but the same basic betting rules you used to produce cash all winter still apply now.
FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (covers.com): day 2 of big east conference tourny betting preview.
  
 Villanova Wildcats vs. Georgetown Hoyas (-5) A healthy Curtis Sumpter is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Villanova Wildcats. With their senior forward back at full strength - Sumpter has a long history of health problems - the Wildcats have been next to unstoppable. Sumpter has back-to-back 20-point games and two double-doubles over his last three – all Villanova wins (2-1 ATS). Georgetown’s metamorphosis into arguably the best team in the conference didn’t happen overnight. The Hoyas needed to experience the growing pains any young club would with John Thompson’s complicated Princeton offense. But the pieces have fallen into place and thanks to “veterans” Roy Hibbert, Jeff Green the Hoyas are poised for another deep run.  Final prediction: Georgetown 66, Villanova 63 Syracuse Orange vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1) Madison Square Garden fits Jim Boeheim like a fine Italian suit. Nobody can touch him or his Syracuse Orange at MSG. Eight straight wins – one shy of tying a conference tournament record – in Big East tourney play leaves little doubt Boeheim knows how to motivate his team when it counts. The back-to-back Big East titles help too. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish can’t afford to lose momentum. The five days off and the first-round bye in the conference tournament may prove to be a curse more than a blessing for unlucky Irish backers. Notre Dame has been streaky all season and already has a Big Dance seed locked up.  Final prediction: Syracuse 81, Notre Dame 88 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Louisville Cardinals (-2 1/2) Keeping up with the Louisville Cardinals isn’t easy, even if they do prefer a slower tempo. Louisville is deeper than most realize. The Cardinals won’t hesitate to pull four men off the bench. Derrick Caracter powered a win over Connecticut in place of starting forward David Pagett (foul trouble) two weeks ago and could start anywhere else. A strong bench is needed to keep up with the West Virginia Mountaineers. No team in the Big East, except maybe Syracuse, relies on the trey like West Virginia. That 1-3-1 zone can give teams fits too but can be negated if the Mountaineers are having an off-night from the outside. These teams never met during the regular season. Final prediction: Louisville 70, West Virginia 69 Marquette vs. Pittsburgh (-5) Is a third straight win over Pittsburgh in the cards for Marquette? It is if Ousmane Barro says so. Marquette’s junior forward has done a fantastic job against Pittsburgh’s Aaron Gray and plays his best basketball against bigger Big East opponents. Barro has put up 22 points and 15 rebounds in Marquette’s two wins over the Panthers this season.  Pittsburgh Panthers big man Aaron Gray clearly benefited from the extra time off near the end of the season. Gray missed a game and saw limited action in two others after injuring his right ankle in a non-conference game with Washington three weeks ago. He responded with one of his best outings since January by dropping 18 points and grabbing 13 rebounds to go along with a season-high five blocks in a loss to Marquette.
 
 
 
FREE MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL PICKS- (cover.com) buy or sell lsu in tournament.
 
 To say the Louisiana State Tigers' season has been a disappointment is like saying Glen Davis used to be a little bit overweight. Like "Big Baby" Davis’ waist, the Tigers’ wins have decreased noticeably from last season’s SEC West championship team. In fact, the Tigers almost went from first to worst – a 61-52 win over South Carolina in their season finale vaulted LSU past the Gamecocks and into 11th in the 12-team SEC (but it still wasn't quite enough to cover the spread). Their reward is a game against the Tennessee Volunteers. The teams will meet tonight at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta with Tennessee a 2 1/2-point favorite. Despite a 5-11 conference record, the Tigers were outscored by an average of just 3.2 points per game in conference play. They were 0-4 straight up in games decided by three points or less. “Isn’t it interesting how bad luck coincides with a lack of talent at point guard?” says Covers Expert David Malinsky. “Having no true point guard really hurts the team.” LSU lost last year’s starting pivot, Darrell Mitchell, to graduation last season. Garrett Temple and Terry Martin are the starting guards now, though neither is a true point guard. Lack of a true point man has also left LSU susceptible to more aggressive defenses. They were pressed heavily by Auburn in their last road game on Feb. 28, turning the ball over 15 times in a 80-68 loss as a 1-point underdog. The Volunteers also press heavily on defense, which could make bettors think twice about banking on LSU being better than their record indicates. “LSU doesn’t have that much experience facing pressing defenses away from home,” says Malisnky. “They are not equipped to handle the press without a capable ball handler.” But don’t tell that to LSU. Head coach John Brady noted that the win over the Gamecocks gives the Tigers a little bit of momentum heading into the tournament, which they need to win to get into the NCAA Tournament. Brady told the Louisiana Advocate that he feels his team is “good enough to beat anybody in the league.” LSU proved that a week and a half ago with a 66-56 home win over the reigning SEC regular season champion and defending NCAA champion Florida Gators. “I think sometimes we see teams like this – teams like LSU and Connecticut – come into their conference tournaments a little looser than they were during the regular season,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. "They are really playing like they have nothing to lose." The Tigers are actually scoring six more points per game than they are allowing this season despite a non-conference schedule that included five big conference opponents and mid-major powers Wichita State and Wright State. Tennessee averages 5.7 more points than it allows. SEC West champion Ole Miss averages just 4.6.
MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS: (associated press) alabama huritng in tournament opener vs kentucky. The Alabama Crimson Tide will have their star point guard back for today’s opening SEC tournament game against the Kentucky Wildcats, but not at full strength. Junior guard Ronnie Steele hasn’t played in the last two games because of injuries to his ankle and knee that have been bothering him all season. The Crimson Tide went 1-1 against the spread without him. “I haven’t played in so long, I forgot how it feels to be out there,” Steele told the Birmingham News. “I don’t think I’ll be 100 percent, but I’ll just play as hard as I can over the next four days.” Also senior center Jermarceo Davidson, the team’s second-leading scorer and rebounder may not play in today’s game because of a back injury. While Davidson said he might be able to play, head coach Mark Gottfried described Davidson’s status as “doubtful, at best.” NCAA BASKETBALL PICKS: (associated press): .nardi questionable for villanova  Villanova Wildcats starter Mike Nardi was limited to just five minutes of action in yesterday's Big East game against the DePaul Blue Demons and is considered questionable for today's Big East quarterfinal game against the Georgetown Hoyas. Oddsmakers have the Hoyas listed as 5 1/2-point favorites with the total set at 122. The senior guard hurt his left leg during Saturday's win over the Syracuse Orange. "I'll wait and see how it feels," Nardi told the Philadelphia Inquirer after the win over DePaul. "There's nothing you can do about it. I've just got to tough it out." Nardi is averaging 12.8 points and 4.1 assists in 30 games this season.