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Free NBA Picks- (covers.com). nash injury causes panic to bettors.
Two-time league MVP Steve Nash is sidelined through All-Star break, rendering both the
Phoenix Suns and their backers as potential losers until Nash returns.
Sportsbooks may have given NBA bettors a break, however, by adjusting Suns’ totals an
inordinate amount in the absence of the point guard.
Phoenix is 1-2 straight up and against the spread in the three games Nash has missed, but
they’ve played over the total in all three.
Granted, the game against the Portland Trail Blazers needed overtime to play over the total
of 201, but the subsequent two games played comfortably over without the benefit of an
extra quarter.
“I think it has a lot to do with the level of intensity,” says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky.
“Without the floor general on the floor, the level of execution just isn’t there, even
though the pace of the games are about the same.”
What can bettors expect with Nash sitting out for the Suns’ game against the Seattle
SuperSonics Wednesday night? Handicappers are banking on more of the same.
“I think the books have to react to the perception of the market,” says Sevransky. “When
people hear that Nash is out, they start betting the under with both hands, and the past
couple of games suggest that it’s not the right play to make.”
The numbers
In the 10 games prior to Nash’s shoulder injury, the Suns were given an average total of
213.4 points from sportsbooks. Their games averaged 215.1 total points in regulation.
The 1.7 points by which the actual points exceeded the totals from the books makes the
Suns’ 6-4 Over/Under record over those 10 games seem sensible.
In the three games Nash has missed, books' totals averaged 202.3 points, a drop of 11.1 per
game. The average total points scored in regulation in the trio of games, however, was
214.0, a drop of only 1.1 points.
That leaves a gap of 11.7 points between the actual points and the books’ totals, which
makes the 3-0 Over/Under record also seem perfectly sensible.
The Offense
The Suns’ offense has predictably suffered without Nash, going from 112.2 points in
regulation time to 103.3 points in regulation, a drop of 8.9 points.
As ESPN basketball analyst Fred Carter pointed out on Tuesday, Phoenix’s offense has
shifted from a fast-paced motion offense to a two-man game between Leandro Barbosa and
Amare Stoudemire.
"It changes everything," Phoenix head coach Mike D'Antoni told the Arizona Republic. "[With
Nash healthy], LB is finishing on the break instead of starting it. Instead of Shawn
[Marion] getting lobs, he's going to have to take outside shots. The hit points are
different."
D’Antoni also has to assume a play-calling role, admitting that he calls about 80 percent
of the Suns’ plays when Nash sits, compared to only 30 percent when Nash is running the
point.
The Defense
The Suns’ defense has suffered, as they’re allowing 110.7 points in the games without Nash,
up 7.8 points from the games in which they had their star point guard.
Phoenix looked decent in Portland but allowed Travis Outlaw a potential game-winning layup
in a defensive goof with seconds remaining. Outlaw missed and the Suns recovered in
overtime.
In the subsequent two games, the Suns’ lack of depth became sorely obvious as they allowed
40 points to the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter last Friday and 37 fourth-quarter
points to the Chicago Bulls two days later.
Phoenix had been leading both games going into the final period, but ended up losing by
decent margins to both inferior opponents.
“Some of it is also running into hot shooters,” says Sevransky. “They’re not a great team
defensively on the perimeter and guys like Joe Johnson and Ben Gordon in the past two games
have shot really well against them in the fourth.”
The X-factor
Boris Diaw sat out the loss to Chicago with back spasms, which also affected him during the
Atlanta game.
Diaw’s absence compounds the Suns’ problems on both ends of the floor. He’s the best
non-Canadian passer on the roster and his vision in the high-post is a key to Phoenix’s
success over the past two years.
He’s also a decent defender in the low-post, often given the chore of defending opposing
teams’ top offensive big men.
Diaw’s absence means two bad things for Phoenix: Marion and Stoudemire draw tougher
defensive assignments and Pat Burke actually sees floor time.
D-less in Seattle
Nash is sitting out Phoenix’s final pre-break game in Seattle and while they want to catch
the Dallas Mavericks atop the Western Conference standings, they’re looking to do so after
the All-Star Game with a refreshed Nash.
The Suns will have talent on the Key Arena floor, but should once again struggle with their
depth and Seattle's strong outside shooting.
The outcome of the game is in doubt, as evidenced by the opening line from the books of
Phoenix -1. The total of 217 points, however, looks like a safer bet based on recent
results.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): pistons rolling with webber.
Call it the Chris Webber Effect.
(No, not that kind of Chris Webber Effect)
Detroit Pistons center Chris Webber has been called every name imaginable in his 14-year
NBA career – loser, coach killer, cancer and choker among them. The common thought was that
Webber had a negative effect on his team everywhere he went and that every team he played
for failed to come through when it mattered.
The former No. 1 overall pick famously called a phantom timeout in the final seconds of the
NCAA Finals and played on multiple Sacramento teams that were expected to make the NBA
finals. None of them ever did. Now he is a Piston and may have finally, at age 33, found
the right fit.
Detroit acquired Webber from Philadelphia in a three-team, six-player deal on Jan. 24 in
which he, and his seven-year, $127 million contract were the centerpiece. Many were
puzzled by the deal considering Webber’s history, but the Pistons have responded with a
11-2 record straight up and a 8-5 record against the spread since Webber moved into the
starting lineup.
“Chris fits because he’s smart, unselfish and wants to win, and that's what our team is all
about,” Pistons president Joe Dumars said.
Plenty has been said over the years about Webber’s attitude, but one thing that has never
been denied is his passing ability. Webber has rare touch for player of his size and his
ability to exploit passing lanes is a big part of Detroit’s recent success.
Webber’s ability to move the ball around the floor is having a direct impact of the
Pistons’ offense. Detroit is averaging more than 24 assists per game as a team since Webber
joined the starting lineup opposed to 20.6 per game before he joined the team.
The Pistons are also averaging almost 99 points per game with Webber opposed to 96.3 points
per game without him.
“I think Webber knows he is a little older, he knows that he doesn’t have many chances left
to win a championship,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “He is back in his hometown and
he is in a good situation. He’s surrounded by veteran players and he is not being counted
on to be the leading scorer or the leading rebounder. It’s a great situation for him.”
Webber’s defense has also been criticized from time-to-time, but the Pistons’ defense has
actually improved since Webber joined the team. They are allowing just 88.7 points per game
over their last 13 games opposed to 94.3 over their first 37. Webber is averaging 7.4
rebounds and almost a block per game since joining Detroit.
“Detroit is a very strong team defensively,” says Leonard. “This is a great situation for
him because defense is one of Webber’s shortcomings. Playing with so many great defensive
players masks some of that deficiency.”
The Pistons host the San Antonio Spurs as 3 ½-point favorites on Valentine's Day, with the
total opening at 179 points. Detroit beat the Los Angeles Clippers by 18 points in their
last home game, easily covering the spread as a 10-point favorite.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): iverson out vs t'wolves and to miss all star game.
Allen Iverson will miss the All-Star Game because of a sprained right ankle that has
bothered him for two weeks.
Iverson was chosen as a reserve to the Western Conference squad for Sunday's game in Las
Vegas, but the Denver Nuggets guard has missed seven of his last eight games after
spraining his right ankle Jan. 29. He aggravated the injury Feb. 6 against New Orleans.
The showcase game will now be missing two of the league's premier guards. Steve Nash of the
Phoenix Suns withdrew Monday because of a shoulder inflammation.
Also Tuesday, the Nets said star point guard Jason Kidd will miss the next two games
because of a back strain. The Nets had no information on whether he'll play in Las Vegas.
Iverson won't play against Minnesota on Wednesday night in the Nuggets' last game before
the All-Star break. He hopes to return Feb. 20 at San Antonio when the regular season
resumes.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (espn.com): fisher replaces davis as union president .
The union representing NBA players will announce that Utah Jazz guard Derek Fisher will
take over as its president during All-Star Weekend in Las Vegas.
Fisher, currently the first vice president of the NBA Players Union and a member of its
nine-player executuve committee, would succeed Toronto Raptors forward Antonio Davis as
president.
Fisher, 32, is in his 11th NBA season.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): joe johnson replaces jason kidd in all star game.
The New Jersey Nets have said that Jason Kidd will miss the next two games with a lower
back strain, and his absence will stretch through the All-Star break.
On Wednesday, the NBA announced Atlanta Hawks guard Joe Johnson would replace Kidd on the
Eastern Conference roster in the All-Star Game. Johnson is the Hawks' first All-Star since
Shareef Abrur-Rahim in 2002.
Johnson is averaging 25.1 points and 4.3 assists per game for the Hawks.
Kidd had played in all 52 games this season for the Nets (25-27), a feat matched only by
guard Vince Carter, and has averaged 36.6 minutes.
Kidd had 10 points and nine rebounds Saturday as the Nets extended their winning streak to
three by beating the Orlando Magic.
He was replaced late in the third quarter by Marcus Williams, who took control of the game,
finishing with 12 points and seven assists. Kidd saw some action in the fourth quarter.
Kidd is averaging 14.3 points, eight rebounds and 8.7 assists this season.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): heat coach to return soon.
Pat Riley walked into the room, and immediately, there were two noticable changes in his
style.
He has a gray beard, something he says he may keep.
More importantly to the Miami Heat, his limp was gone.
Riley announced Tuesday he'll return as coach of the Heat next week, following a six-week
absence to address health issues. He'll begin running practice again when the team
reconvenes after the All-Star break and will be back on the sideline Feb. 21 when Miami
visits Houston.
"I'm ready,'' Riley said shortly before the Heat hosted Portland on Tuesday night. "I'm in
a much better state of mind than I was January 3rd -- I can guarantee you that.''
That was the day Riley stepped aside; the 61-year-old, who is also the Heat's president,
had surgery to repair knee cartilage two days later, then a long-awaited and much-needed
hip replacement surgery the following week.
He's been working in his office at times in recent weeks, meeting with players on several
occasions, and now is apparently ready to return full-time to lead the Heat's defense of
their NBA championship.
"We knew this day was going to come,'' Heat center Alonzo Mourning said. "He said he was
coming back. The body heals up and eventually he would have an opportunity to come back.
That time is coming near and I'm excited about him coming back.''
He's coming back with the Heat in good spirits, too.
Miami entered Tuesday with a 12-9 record under assistant-turned-interim coach Ron
Rothstein, including six wins in the last seven games. That run pushed the defending NBA
champions within four games of Washington in the Southeast Division.
Rothstein -- who coached the Heat on Tuesday night -- deflected any credit, saying his
record was mostly a byproduct of the Heat getting healthier; Miami has battled injuries all
year, with Shaquille O'Neal missing two months early in the season following knee surgery.
"When you move over that one seat, your world changes,'' Rothstein said. "It's a whole
different deal. It takes a little adjusting, a little getting used to. And it's been
interesting, to say the least.''
But Riley said "Ronnie's done a great job,'' and in turn, players lauded the way Rothstein
stepped into a difficult spot.
"Coach Rothstein has done a fabulous job getting the team prepared to go out and play every
night,'' Heat guard Dwyane Wade said. "He did an excellent job. Now we know how much of a
coach he really is. ... We enjoyed the time with him.''
Nobody in the Heat camp really enjoyed the first 30 games, though.
O'Neal and Jason Williams were hurt and missed most games. Losses piled up quickly,
starting with an embarrassing 42-point beating at home against Chicago on the night Miami
got its championship rings and raised the title banner. And after another loss to the
Bulls, this one on the road Dec. 27, tensions boiled over.
Riley kicked the locker room door in anger that night. He wasn't laughing then. He was when
cryptically referencing the story Tuesday.
"I might say a good swift kick in the door helped everything, OK? But that's locker room
stuff,'' Riley said. "I treasure this team and what we did last year. But that was last
year. You have a tendency to climb the mountain together, but one thing you don't do is you
don't get to camp out up there.''
So for now, anyway, his championship ring is put away -- as if a sign that it's time for
the Heat to look ahead to winning another title, not back at the last one.
"Painkillers and anti-inflammatories are not a very good concoction for rational thinking
and behavior, if you know what I mean,'' Riley said. "I think I'm fixed. I don't know.
We'll find out.''
He took over 21 games into the 2005-06 season following Stan Van Gundy's decision to resign
for family reasons. The Heat were 11-10 when Van Gundy stepped aside; they went 41-20 under
Riley to finish the regular season, going on to win the franchise's first championship.
"He was the man that orchestrated the journey,'' Mourning said. "And we need him back in
order for us to repeat.'' "And we need him back in order for us to repeat."
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