|
nba picks, free nba picks, free nba playoff picks & nba playoff picks content
Free NBA Picks- (covers.com): Beware could the kings be a success without artest.
Sacramento Kings forward Ron Artest has never been a stranger to controversy.
That’s likely why so few eyebrows were raised when Artest was removed from the Kings’
active roster, pending further investigation of domestic violence charges.
What has raised eyebrows, however, is how the Kings have done without the former All-Star.
They’re 5-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) without Artest for the season,
3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the trio of games Artest has missed in the last two weeks.
"We're getting confidence in one another, and anybody on this team can have the ball,"
Kevin Martin told the Sacramento Bee after Tuesday’s Artest-less win over the Indiana
Pacers. "Tonight it was Mike (Bibby) and myself. We're going to just keep on trying to play
like this."
Martin would be the first to suggest the Kings are on the right track. He’s averaging 27.7
points per game when Artest sits, 32.7 over the last three. He’s averaging 21.4 points for
the season.
As a team, the Kings have scored 101.0 points per game this season. That number jumps to
107.2 without Artest and 115.7 in the last three games Artest has missed.
NBA handicappers, however, are hesitant to suggest that the Kings will remain a winning
team without the would-be hip-hop star.
“I think their recent offensive success has more to do with the opposition than being
better off without him,” says Covers Expert Dave Malinsky. The Kings have recently faced
the Pacers twice and the Charlotte Bobcats once without Artest.
“In the short-term, we’re chalking it up to facing teams that have been struggling mightily
on defense, and in the case of Charlotte, a team that was very short-handed.”
Sacramento’s next opponent won’t be so easy to victimize.
The San Antonio Spurs come to the California capital with a 10-game winning streak and a
swagger on defense – opponents are only scoring 81.7 points per game against the Spurs
during the streak.
Artest was one of head coach Eric Musselman’s few low-post offensive options during the
season and the 6-foot-7 forward wouldn’t likely fear any of the Spurs’ interior defenders.
“I think they’re definitely a weaker team without Artest,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.
“In my ratings I still have him as the most important player on Sacramento’s roster, as his
plus-minus rating has been pretty substantial.”
It remains to be seen how long Artest will be kept out in this latest controversy. While
the Kings may miss his on-court skills and tenacity, his frequent off-court distractions
might extend his absence.
“If this legal matter clears up, I think there will be a very interesting prelude before
Artest comes back,” Malinsky notes. “We want to hear from the Kings, to see if they
actually want him back on the team, before we play them either way if or when he returns.”
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): nba top 5 asstist to turnover teams.
High-scoring games usually mean a lot of assists; somebody has to set up all those buckets,
right?
But high assist totals don’t necessarily mean that a team is playing unselfishly. Sometimes
it just signifies a shootout with both teams playing at an out-of-control pace.
That’s why I’m using “assists-per-field goal” to compile this list.
It’s an underused stat that points to teams which make the most of each possession. It’s
far from perfect, but the higher the percentage of made field goals with an assist
attached, the better a team is at finding open players and connecting on those open shots.
You’ll notice that the top three teams in the NBA have outstanding point guards. That’s not
surprising.
You’ll also notice, however, a higher-than-normal rate of games playing over the total
among those teams. The five top teams together are playing over the total 53.9 percent of
the time. Take Phoenix and their sky-high totals out of the equation and the other four are
playing over 55.4 percent of the time.
Just thought I’d point that out.
1. New Jersey Nets: assists on 65.6 percent of made field goals
(28-32 straight up; 31-28-1 against the spread; 31-29 over/under)
The Nets landing in the No. 1 slot here is purely the doing of Jason Kidd. He looks to pass
first, pass second and pass third.
Considering the fact that Vince Carter and perhaps Eddie House are the only other healthy
Nets who can create their own shot, Kidd’s unselfishness is the only reason some New Jersey
players score at all.
2. Utah Jazz: 64.9 percent
(41-19 SU; 32-25-3 ATS; 33-26-1 O/U)
The improvement of Deron Williams in his sophomore season has led to an offensive
revolution in Utah.
The Jazz are second in the league in field goals made and assists per game. Williams’
ability to penetrate defenses plays a big part in both stats. Having talented big men helps
too.
3. Phoenix Suns: 63.5 percent
(46-14 SU; 33-26-1 ATS; 29-31 O/U)
No surprise that the league’s high-scoring desert gang leads in both field goals made and
assists as well.
Watch one game with a healthy Steve Nash at the point and you can see why that is. The Suns
miss Boris Diaw’s high-post vision, though.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 61.7 percent
(26-33 SU; 27-32 ATS; 34-24-1 O/U)
Easily the most surprising entry on the list and also the team most likely to play over the
total.
The Wolves lack a true point guard, but the players who handle the ball the most in
Minnesota’s offense (Kevin Garnett and Ricky Davis) are unselfish players who lead the team
in assists from their power forward and shooting guard positions.
5. Denver Nuggets: 60.7 percent
(28-29 SU; 28-28-1 ATS; 31-25-1 O/U)
The Nuggets have gone thorough a few changes at the point guard position, of course, thanks
to the Allen Iverson trade.
Andre Miller and Earl Boykins are now playing in the Eastern Conference, leaving Steve
Blake to man the point for a while before Iverson recently took over. As a team, Denver is
fourth in the league in overall assists.
The best of the rest
The San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): dalls looking to win 70 games.
Jason Terry likes being king of the mountain, numero uno, the guy everyone else is trying
to catch. He's talking, of course, about being the best pool player on the Dallas
Mavericks, and that gaudy championship belt hanging in his locker.
What, you thought he meant something else?
Such as the Mavericks, with a 51-9 record, a 16-game winning streak and a 23-game home
winning streak, cruising toward one of the best records in NBA history?
Sorry. Those things don't matter much - not now, at least - to a club still smarting from a
flameout in last year's NBA finals.
newbodog.com lists the Mavs as the favorite at +200 to win the NBA Championship this season.
''It's easy for us to tune it out, just knowing we haven't accomplished anything,'' Terry
said. ''We're a team that has a goal in mind. Until we accomplish that goal, we're focused
on the task at hand.''
Since watching Miami celebrate a title on their own court, the Mavericks have thought
solely about getting back and finishing the job. Every practice, film session, shootaround
and even games are viewed through the prism of what will work best in the playoffs.
Coach Avery Johnson began pushing that mind-set last season. It settled in nicely as Dallas
tied a franchise record with 60 wins, then went to the finals for the first time.
But after going up 2-0, the Mavericks blew a big, late lead in Game 3 and never recovered.
The Heat won four straight games, leaving Dallas with its longest losing streak since
Johnson took over in March 2005.
The Mavericks stewed over it all summer, then came back and opened this season with four
more losses in a row.
They've lost only five of their 56 games since, a remarkable .911 winning percentage.
And they're nowhere near satisfied.
''We're still a long way away from where we want to be in the playoffs. We have a lot of
stuff we can get better at,'' said Dirk Nowitzki, who finally might topple his buddy Steve
Nash for the MVP award if Dallas keeps up its winning ways.
With 22 games left, the Mavericks would have to win them all to break the record of 72 wins
set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. They'd have to win all but one to match the mark.
A more realistic goal might be 19-3, which would give them 70 wins, second most in league
history. Yet this team doesn't set those kind of goals.
''We're a hungry basketball team because we don't have what we've been looking for,''
Johnson said. ''Even though we may have a decent record, we still haven't been awarded
anything yet.''
Treating the regular season like one long preseason is understandable for a club that's
already notched its seventh straight 50-win season.
But it's kind of a shame, too.
The Mavs are failing to savor what they've already accomplished, from being the
sixth-fastest team with 50 wins to having the fourth-best record after 60 games to going
10-0 in February, marking the first perfect month in franchise history and the first in the
league since the 1996 San Antonio Spurs, a club that featured a left-handed point guard
named Avery Johnson.
Consider these tidbits:
- The Mavericks improved to 36-2 since Dec. 13 with a victory Tuesday night. At that point,
Detroit was the only Eastern Conference team with more wins all season (37). It's the best
38-game spurt in league history - better than the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who won a record
72 games, and better than the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers, who won 33 in a row on the way to
a then-record 69. Those Bulls and Lakers teams went on to win NBA championships.
- In addition to the ongoing 16-game winning streak, Dallas has runs of 12 and 13 games. No
team has had that many streaks last that long in the same season. Only three other teams
have cracked double digits three times. Two of them, the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks and the
1999-2000 Lakers, went on to win the title.
- Dallas already has clinched a playoff spot and is closing in on the second division title
in team history. As good as the Mavericks have been in recent years, the Spurs usually were
better, but the balance of power shifted when Dallas won an intense series last postseason.
Now the gap has widened, with the Mavs holding a comfortable division lead.
- After every home game, Johnson passes a fan-filled bar as he walks from his news
conference to his office. Fans cheer him, and he always waves back.
When the Mavericks play their next home game, against Phoenix on Wednesday night, it will
be a day shy of 15 weeks since he made that walk following a loss. To put that in
perspective, 15 weeks after the Suns game will be the eve of the NBA draft.
''The only streak we're really concerned about is putting together good games
consistently,'' Terry said. ''I think that's all Avery. He's embedded that into our
minds.''
Even the mind of team owner Mark Cuban.
''What streaks?'' Cuban wrote in an e-mail. ''It's a process. We have a lot of room to
improve. A lot. We aren't consistent for 48 minutes and our offense gets out of sync. We
just have to stay healthy and keep getting better.''
Johnson used a four-day layoff this week to work toward both goals. Practices were geared
toward specific things he wanted to work on, but there also was enough down time for
players to rest up for the stretch drive. They may not have this many days off again until
after the playoffs.
They return with three games in four nights, all against teams that have beaten them this
season: the Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday night, Golden State in Oakland on Monday night,
then home for the Suns. Soon after, they play nine of 11 on the road, starting with six in
a row.
''You don't go through what we went through in the finals without getting kind of an edge
about yourself,'' Terry said. ''Look back at the (Bad Boys-era) Pistons' struggles before
they finally won it, the Bulls before they took their step. There was something about them
that when they came back the next year that just said, 'We're not going to be denied.'
That's where our mind and our focus is.''
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): Points in the paint, money in the bank.
I’m flying in the face of NBA handicapping wisdom, but I can’t help it.
I’ve been told multiple times that NBA statistics are less reliable got bettors than the
numbers in any other sport.
Even college basketball stats are a better gauge of a team’s likelihood of winning (so I’ve
been told) than those found in the NBA.
Makes sense. With 300-plus Division I college teams, bettors are bound to find an edge.
With only 30 NBA teams chock-full of similarly-sized and skilled players, the statistical
range is somewhat lacking.
In other words, good luck finding an edge in the numbers.
All the same, I couldn’t help but notice a lot of good teams that consistently get points
in the paint and an awful lot of bad teams who struggle down low.
Maybe not the most shocking discovery, but when a team from the top group (below) takes on
a team from the bottom bunch (also below) for the next little while, I’ll side with the top
guys and see how it plays out.
There are six NBA teams averaging five-plus points in the paint more than their opponents.
Combined, those half-dozen teams are 214-133 (.617) straight-up and 184-154-9 (.544)
against the spread.
In a nice symmetrical stroke, there are six other NBA squads being outscored in the paint
by at least five points per game. The latter group is a combined 146-197 (.426) straight-up
and 169-166-8 (.504) against the spread.
Here are the numbers in more detail; judge for yourself how much they’re worth.
Advantaged in the paint
1. Utah Jazz (+12.4 points in the paint per game compared to opponents)
(38-19 straight up; 29-25-3 against the spread)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (+10.5)
(26-31 SU; 27-30 ATS)
3. Phoenix Suns (+8.0)
(44-14 SU; 32-25-1 ATS)
4. Portland Trail Blazers (+7.7)
(25-34 SU; 29-30 ATS)
5. Dallas Mavericks (+6.3)
(49-9 SU; 31-23-4 ATS)
6. Toronto Raptors (+5.2)
(32-26 SU; 36-21-1 ATS)
Disadvantaged in the paint
25. Denver Nuggets (-5.4)
(28-28 SU; 28-27-1 ATS)
26. Seattle SuperSonics (-5.5)
(23-35 SU; 28-28-2 ATS)
27. Milwaukee Bucks (-5.7)
(21-37 SU; 30-27-1 ATS)
28. Boston Celtics (-6.3)
(15-42 SU; 27-29-1 ATS)
29. New Jersey Nets (-6.9)
(28-30 SU; 31-26-1 ATS)
30. Washington Wizards (-8.3)
(31-25 SU; 25-29-2 ATS)
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): Hawks could miss All-Star guard for weeks.
The Atlanta Hawks could be without their leading scorer for the next three or four weeks
with a possibly of him missing the rest of the regular season.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Joe Johnson’s calf injury has escalated in
severity over the past couple of days, leaving the All-Star guard’s season in doubt.
“We've been down this road all season," head coach Mike Woodson told the
Journal-Constitution. "We'll have to battle as best we can without Joe just like we did
when other guys were out. But there's no question that this hurts in a big way, because Joe
is such a big part of what we're about."
Johnson was accidentally kicked in the calf by a teammate in Monday night’s loss to the
Miami Heat. He played 46 minutes in the game, a 7-point loss when the visiting Hawks were 6
½-point underdogs.
The Journal-Constitution reports that a hematoma formed under the calf muscle after the
team returned to Atlanta. The Hawks fear the development of “compartment syndrome, which
occurs when the blood builds up in the pocket between the muscle and the bone, requiring
draining.”
Atlanta is 23-39 straight up and 28-33-1 against the spread for the season.
Johnson missed four games earlier in the season with unrelated calf problems. The Hawks
went 1-3 SU and ATS in those games. Johnson is averaging 25.0 points per game this season,
10 points more than the team’s next leading scorer.
Atlanta hosts the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night and the Minnesota Timberwolves on
Saturday.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): piston loose hunter for 10 games.
Detroit Pistons guard Lindsey Hunter was suspended 10 games without pay by the NBA on
Wednesday after testing positive for phentermine, a banned substance primarily used for
weight loss.
Sportsbook.com lists the Pistons at +110 to win the Eastern Conference title this season.
Phentermine is listed as a steroid or performance-enhancing drug under the league's
Anti-Drug program and brings an automatic 10-game penalty for a first positive test.
Hunter, who is 36 and in his 13th NBA season, has averaged 4.6 points, 1.4 assists and 14
minutes in 39 games as a key reserve for the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons.
Hunter began his suspension Wednesday night when the Pistons faced the Cleveland Cavaliers
and will lose more than $202,000.
AOL now offers free email to everyone. Find out more about what's free from AOL at AOL.com. |
