March 15 , 2007 , 2006 HOME - SPORTS NEWS
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nba picks, free nba picks, free nba playoff picks & nba playoff picks content
Free NBA Picks- (covers.com): Should we just forget the postseason and hand the NBA trophy now to the Dallas Mavericks? Of course not.
There’s still a long way to go and anything can happen. Injuries. Playoff upsets. A loss of focus. Dissension.
After all, one year ago at this time the Detroit Pistons were steamrolling through the NBA and there was talk of handing them the title. Even the Piston players were talking about how great they were, yet in the end they didn’t even make the NBA Finals.
With that said, a better case can be made for these remarkable Mavericks. Here’s a list of the six best starts in NBA history after 60 games:
1995-96 Bulls – 54-6
1996-97 Bulls – 53-7
1966-67 76ers – 52-8
1982-83 76ers – 51-9
1971-72 Lakers – 51-9
2006-07 Mavericks – 51-9
This Mavericks team is in select company. Those Chicago teams under Michael Jordan were juggernauts. The two Philadelphia teams had MVPs Wilt Chamberlain and then Moses Malone dominating the low post. The ‘72 Lakers won 33 games in a row, still a record. One another point: Every one of those teams went on to win the NBA title that season.
Dallas has a lot going for it. The Mavs average 100 ppg, ninth in the NBA, and allow 92 ppg, third-best defensively. Their 38% shooting from 3-point land is fourth in the league, while their free-throw shooting (80%) is second.
Avery Johnson is focused, hard driving and a very good coach. He knows how to teach defense and has shown a talent for making astute adjustments in a game and in a series. They made it to the NBA Finals last year in his first full season as a head coach.
This team is deep and talented with stars and role players. Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry each received lucrative contracts during the off-season even though Nowitzki and Howard still had years remaining on their previous deals. Sixth-man Jerry Stackhouse, a former star, is happy and productive in his role.
Dallas has been an underdog five times and won three of those straight up. They are also an astounding 21-6 on the road! Their rebound differential of +4 per game is second best in the league (behind the Utah Jazz) and they are eighth in blocked shots.
I know it’s early to talk about the playoffs, but note that the last four times the Mavericks played the San Antonio Spurs and the Phoenix Suns they are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS. They were a dog in three of those games yet they won 95-92 at San Antonio and 119-112 at Phoenix. If you like to play totals, note that the UNDER was 3-1 in those meetings. That’s something to keep in mind when the playoffs roll around, as defense often steps up in the postseason.
Perhaps the only real question regarding the Mavericks is how will they play in close playoff games? That collapse against the Miami Heat in the Finals is still a cloud hanging over their heads, losing three of the last four games by three, one, and two points. But until someone shows otherwise, the Mavs are in select historic company and the team to beat.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): nba top rebounding teams.
Defensive rebounding is like NBA officiating – you only notice it when it’s bad.
Basketball players are taught at a young age how to box out, but watch any NBA game and you’ll see guys who don’t work hard enough to keep opponents away from their own misses.
The result? The other guys grab offensive rebounds and teams catch up if they’re behind or kill the clock if they’re ahead.
I looked at the teams with the best and worst overall rebounding numbers, using rebounding margin (the difference between a team’s total rebounds and the total rebounds it allows its opponent) as the determinative stat.
The teams with the best overall rebounding numbers have a combined 199-116 (.632) straight up (SU) record. They’re also 164-141-10 (.538) against the spread (ATS). There’s only one losing team in the group and none of them are below .500 ATS.
The teams with the worst rebounding numbers are 132-189 (.411) SU and 156-160-5 (.494) ATS. Four of the five teams are below .500 SU and two of the NBA’s worst ATS teams are on the list.
Surprisingly, however, the NBA’s top ATS team is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to cleaning up on the boards.
Here are the five best rebounding teams in the NBA in terms of how well they out-do their opponents on the glass:
1. Utah Jazz: +6.1 rebounds per game
(43-19 SU, 33-25-4 ATS)
2. Dallas Mavericks: +4.6
(52-10 SU, 33-25-4 ATS)
3. New York Knicks: +4.3
(29-34 SU, 33-20 ATS)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: +2.9
(38-25 SU, 33-29-1 ATS)
5. Chicago Bulls: +2.4
(37-28 SU, 32-32-1 ATS)
And the five worst:
26. Memphis Grizzlies: -3.4
(16-49 SU, 28-26-1 ATS)
27. Milwaukee Bucks: -3.5
(23-41 SU, 32-31-1 ATS)
28. Toronto Raptors: -3.8
(35-29 SU, 37-26-1 ATS)
29. Sacramento Kings: -4.0
(28-34 SU, 27-34-1 ATS)
30. Golden State Warriors: -4.9
(30-36 SU, 32-33-1 ATS)
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): teams wit hthe softest schedules down the stretch.
No. 1: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors could make some serious coin in their final 19 games as they stay away from the top Western Conference teams and play a bunch at home.
The Raptors, who already lead the NBA with 36 wins against the number, play 10 of their final 19 games in Toronto. Plus, 11 of Toronto’s final 19 games are against clubs that under .500 in ATS standings.
“Except for a home game with the Houston Rockets, (the Raptors) have all of their battles versus the Western powers already out of the way,” Covers Expert David Malinsky said. “(The Raptors) could be an example of a team that will go for the jugular versus weaker opponents, instead of taking a night off.”
No. 2: Los Angeles Lakers
Of the Lakers final 18 games, 14 are against teams with sub .500 ATS records. Included on this schedule are NBA lightweights such as the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings, both of which play the Lakers twice before the regular season ends.
The Lakers also get the Golden State Warriors and Seattle SuperSonics at home in the final weeks of the campaign, two clubs with nothing to play for but the prospect of an early draft pick.
No. 3: Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks’ schedule could help them become only the second NBA team to ever win 70 games in a regular season.
They face 12 teams with losing ATS records and 12 teams with losing straight-up records in their remaining 17 games and some of these clubs are real stinkers like the Warriors, Kings, Sonics, and Atlanta Hawks. What’s even better is that Dallas faces Golden State twice in the last month of the regular season.
“That's a team … playing with a purpose,” the Lakers Kobe Bryant told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram of the Mavericks. “It's definitely recognizable.”
No. 4: Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls play 14 of their final 17 games against Eastern Conference teams and nine of their last 17 at home.
The Bulls have fared very well against the East this year, going 22-17 against the spread and 26-13 straight up against teams from their conference. And the club is just as tough at home, covering the spread in 20 of their 32 home games (24-8 straight up).
The Bulls do face the Detroit Pistons twice in the final month of the season, but Chicago is 2-0 ATS against the Pistons this year.
No. 5: Utah Jazz
The Jazz are in position to make some money down the stretch, even if they do play 11 of their final 20 games on the road.
That’s because a lot of the teams Utah visits include the Orlando Magic, the Philadelphia 76ers, the Kings, and the Portland Trail Blazers.
Utah also plays teams from its division five times in the final month and is 6-5 ATS and 8-3 SU against Northwest Division foes.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): jazz still a hot team ats.
The Utah Jazz likely understand what legendary composer and bassist Charles Mingus meant when he said “if someone has been escaping reality, I don’t expect him to dig my music.”
They’ve won six games in a row by double-digits, going 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in the process. That’s very dig-able music, my friends.
But if you’re a bettor who has been swept up in the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs hype over the past couple of weeks, then you’ve been escaping reality. The Jazz have been as undervalued as a 42-19 straight up (SU) team can get.
Utah has the league’s third-best ATS record. Sportsbooks, however, can only ignore a team for so long before reacting to all the convincing wins.
The Jazz were favored by 14 points against the Charlotte Bobcats on Monday, 11 points against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday and 10 points aganist the New Orleans Hornets on Saturday. The games marked only the fourth, fifth and sixth times this season that Utah has been favored by double digits.
They've since hit the road, favored twice despite being a visitor. Oddsmakers have Jazz as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday as they take on the Orlando Magic.
Jerry Sloan's disciplined approach has led to similar results all season. They started off with a surprising 12-1 SU record and didn't look back. The Denver Nuggets were within four games of the Northwest Division lead at one point and were expected to hurdle Utah once they acquired Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony returned from suspension.
Instead, the Jazz have blasted off to a 12-game lead in the division, prompting team owner Larry H. Miller to demand that Sloan be named the league’s Coach of the Year.
Miller knows better than to expect such rewards.
"During the playoff years, the 1997-98 years, I was introduced to a term that I hadn't heard before. ... It's 'a media black hole,’” he told the Deseret News. "And I think, to a degree, that Utah's in that - between L.A. and New York and Chicago.
"You hear the Jazz talked about a little bit, but it's not unusual - on radio shows, and TV shows - that they have the Jazz totally ignored when they're talking about (this season's) playoff picture," Miller continued.
"They'll still talk about the (Los Angeles) Lakers and Houston (Rockets) , who are behind us, and even Denver occasionally. To me, that kind of supports the 'media black hole' concept. And I think that's part of it."
As long as the ‘black hole’ keeps public bettors away from the Jazz, however, Miller might be the only one complaining.
The Jazz fell 88-86 to the Miami Heat as 2-point favorites on Tuesday night. The teams played under the 192-point total set by books.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): could wed's suns @ mavs contest on espn be a preview of this year's western conference finals.
The matchup: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
The line: Mavericks -4, total 208 points
The tipoff: 9 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas
For the record
The visiting Phoenix Suns are 49-14 straight up (SU), the second-best mark in the NBA, and 34-28-1 against the spread (ATS), fifth in the league. The Suns are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.0 points per game.
The Suns 23-8 SU and 19-12 ATS on the road, with a +5.8 point differential. They’ve been an underdog on the road six times, going 1-5 SU but 4-2 ATS in those half-dozen games.
The Dallas Mavericks are tops in the league at 52-10 SU and their 33-25-4 ATS record is tied for fourth. They’re 30-3 SU but only 17-14-2 ATS at home.
The Mavs’ +8.3 point differential on the season balloons to +12.4 when playing at home.
Previously this season
The Suns and Mavs have already faced each other twice this season, once in each city. Dallas is 2-0 SU but the road team covered the spread in both games.
Dallas won by two points on Dec. 28 but failed to cover as a 2 ½-point home favorite. The Suns hit nine of their 14 three-point attempts and the Mavs’ bench contributed only nine points with Jerry Stackhouse sidelined.
Phoenix was on fire from beyond the arc at home too (hitting 11-of-21 from downtown) on Nov. 9, but Steve Nash’s uncharacteristic 10 turnovers helped the Mavs leave the desert with a 7-point win as a 4-point underdog. Dallas won despite playing without All-Star forward Josh Howard.
We’re going streaking!
The Mavericks’ third lengthy winning streak of the season was snapped on Monday night by the Golden State Warriors.
"It was a buffet of things," head coach Avery Johnson told the Dallas Morning News. "Pick one thing out, and I'd agree with you. We got outhustled, outworked, outconcentrated. We just didn't have it when we got to the arena."
Dallas went 52-5 since starting the season with four consecutive losses before Monday’s loss in Oakland. They won each of the five games immediately following a loss during that 57-game span, but only covered the spread twice in those five games.
The Los Angeles Lakers snapped the Mavs’ 13-game winning steak on Jan. 7. Dallas followed the loss with a three-point win in Utah, just enough for a push.
The Chicago Bulls beat Dallas on Jan. 25 to end the Mavericks’ eight-game winning streak. The NBA’s best team responded with a 2-point win over the Sacramento Kings, not even coming close to covering as a 12-point home favorite.
Building momentum in Phoenix (but will they bring it to Dallas?)
The Suns overwhelmed the Houston Rockets on Monday night, winning 103-82 as a 6-point favorite on their home court. They’d barely beaten their previous three opponents, going 0-3 ATS against a struggling trio.
“Tonight we beat a marquee team, and we have a lot of them coming up,” Amaré Stoudemire told the East Valley Tribune after the game. “We have to step up right now. Everyone knows Dallas will be a big game, and we have a chance to take a step forward. This is a game you point toward.”
Leandro Barbosa equaled his career-high (set six days earlier) with 32 points against the Rockets, but head coach Mike D’Antoni was most pleased with the Suns’ swarming defensive approach.
D’Antoni might also be encouraged by the Mavericks’ loss to Golden State, given that the Warriors pattern their offensive tempo after the Suns’ own fast-breaking play.
Golden State’s biggest players, Andris Biedrins and Al Harrington, were 13-for-13 from the floor, too quick for Mavericks’ big men Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop.
Injury news and notes
The Suns travel to Dallas apparently in full health. Forward Boris Diaw has played 36 minutes in consecutive games and seems to be recovered from his back spasms.
Kurt Thomas has played in every Phoenix game since the All-Star game and while his offense hasn’t been there, his performance against Houston on Monday showed that he’s more than willing to bang.
Mavericks swingman Devean George is suffering from knee pain again and played only two minutes in his third game since returning from a seven-game absence. George is questionable for Wednesday night.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): clippers young star has reconstructive knee surgery.
Los Angeles Clippers guard Shaun Livingston underwent reconstructive surgery on his left knee Tuesday in Alabama.
The procedure at St. Vincent's Hospital in Birmingham took about three hours, a team spokesman said. Livingston will complete an intensive, two-week rehabilitation program at the hospital before returning to Los Angeles to continue his recovery.
Livingston tore parts of his anterior cruciate ligament, posterior cruciate ligament, medial collateral ligament and lateral meniscus in a victory over the Charlotte Bobcats on Feb. 26. The Clippers' third-year pro may be sidelined for a year or more.
The 21-year-old Livingston, taken by the Clippers out of Peoria (Ill.) Central High School with the fourth pick in the 2004 draft, has been hampered by injuries and has yet to play a full season in the NBA.
He missed 39 games during his rookie season because of a dislocated right knee, and another 12 that season because of torn cartilage in his right shoulder. He sat out the first 21 games last season because of a stress reaction in his lower back.
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