March 21 , 2007 , 2006 HOME - SPORTS NEWS
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Free NBA Picks- (covers.com): bucks playing better with new coach.
There’s always mystery involved with an NBA team after a coaching change, for oddsmakers
and bettors alike.
It’s no different for the Milwaukee Bucks, who fired Terry Stotts and replaced him with
former assistant Larry Krystowiak earlier this week.
“We have to be really observant to see how a team’s personality might change,” says Pete
Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas. “Memphis is a perfect
example from this year – they switched coaches in December and there was a drastic change
in the pace of their games.”
“Right now it’s easier to make a spread for the Bucks than it is a total. But it’s tough
for bettors too. We’re all reading the same articles.”
Covers Expert David Malinsky isn’t usually a fan of coaching this late in the season,
saying that they generally only happen in bad situations.
“But this is a little different case,” Malinsky suggests. “Although there were some very
frustrating losses when they had big leads at home versus Chicago and Cleveland, the Bucks
were finally getting healthy again, and were primed to play well down the stretch. This has
a chance to be a positive situation.”
Krystowiak’s opening act as head coach has certainly been positive, as the Bucks beat the
San Antonio Spurs last Thursday night, snapping the Spurs’ 13-game winning streak, then
beat the Charlotte Bobcats on Saturday.
Milwaukee scored 101 points against the Spurs and 97 points against the Bobcats. Korner
says that the games weren’t significant enough to establish the type of pace we can expect
from the Bucks for the rest of the season, but Krystowiak tipped his hand to the local
media after accepting the top job.
"If you look at the upper-echelon teams in the league right now, the one thing you notice
is the high assist total, guys are sharing the ball," Krystkowiak told the Milwaukee
Journal-Sentinel. "We're going to push the tempo. Mo (Williams) at the point guard pushes
the ball well, and we've got some bigs that can run.”
It may be those bigs who relish the coaching change more than anyone else. Talented
youngsters Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva were reportedly not seeing eye-to-eye with
Stotts (and not only because they towered over the former coach).
Krystowiak’s role as an assistant coach had him working with the Bucks’ big men and he
fostered an especially strong working relationship with Bogut.
The Aussie center made headlines of his own recently by getting ejected for a flagrant foul
on Toronto Raptors star Chris Bosh, then flipping off the hometown fans while leaving the
floor. Only Bogut knows what was going through his mind at the time, but the installation
of his mentor as the head coach is undoubtedly a positive step for his development.
"The style we're going to play initially, where we're not getting too carried away with a
bunch of sets, but we're going to ask people to make basketball plays, puts (Bogut) in a
position of strength," Krystowiak told the Journal-Sentinel.
"I'm really curious to see the numbers he puts up through that. We'll put the ball in his
hands. Andrew knows he's a piece of the puzzle."
So far, so good for Bogut: he's played more than 40 minutes in each of Krystowiak's first
two games as head coach and is averaging 15.0 points and 11.5 rebounds.
Bettors should know that Krystowiak isn’t an interim head coach. He impressed Milwaukee
brass enough to justify a four-year deal with the first two years guaranteed. The
Journal-Sentinel reports that the contract is worth $2 million a year.
If team management has that much confidence in him and the players like him as much as
reported, Krystowiak’s promotion could trigger a profitable stretch run for the Bucks and
their backers.
“I think the Bucks could take a deep breath and play well, with no pressure on,” Malinsky
says. “At the same time, it might genuinely be an upgrade anyway – Stotts appeared to be a
bit overmatched. So for once, one of these late changes really could spark the team.”
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): artest charged.
Sacramento Kings forward Ron Artest faces four misdemeanor charges stemming from a dispute
with his wife at home earlier this month.
The charges were filed late Tuesday. Placer County Deputy District Attorney Dan Quick said
Artest will be arraigned Thursday on charges of battery and corporal injury to a spouse,
false imprisonment and dissuading a witness from reporting a crime. Each carries a maximum
sentence of one year in prison.
Oddsmakers have the Kings as 6-point underdogs for tonight's game against the Minnesota
Timberwolves. The total is set at 198.
Artest was arrested March 5 at his estate in Loomis, 25 miles northeast of Sacramento, and
was released from custody after posting a $50,000 bond.
A Placer County sheriff's report said Artest grabbed a woman and pushed her down, then
slapped her face during an argument. The report said Artest took a phone from the woman the
first time she tried to call 911.
When she reached 911, the woman at first complained that Artest was taking the family
Hummer from the home, according to a recording of the call released by the sheriff's
department. The woman then told a dispatcher that her finger was cut and her leg scratched,
and that she broke the windshield of the vehicle.
Five days after his arrest, Artest said he'd stumbled as a father and husband and
apologized to his wife and family, as well as to the Kings and his teammates. He sat out
two games, but was not suspended and continued to receive his salary.
Artest's attorney, William Portanova, said Wednesday that he had not yet seen the charges.
''Ron's first priority remains his family, and the process will simply have to work itself
through,'' he said.
Portanova declined to say whether Artest has had any contact with his family since the
incident.
''The family continues to request privacy during these difficult times,'' he said.
Immediately after the arrest, the county sheriff's department obtained an emergency
protective order that prevented Artest from returning to his home or contacting the woman
until she could obtain a restraining order. It was not immediately clear on Wednesday
whether she had done so.
Calls Wednesday to Artest's agent, Mark Stevens, were not immediately returned. Kings
spokesman Darrin May said he had no immediate comment.
It was the latest in a string of incidents that have marred Artest's basketball career.
As a member of the Indiana Pacers, he was the central figure in the 2004 brawl with Detroit
Pistons fans. He received a 73-game suspension and lost almost $5 million in salary for
jumping into the stands and throwing punches. Artest and teammate Stephen Jackson were
sentenced to one year of probation and 60 hours of community service after pleading no
contest to misdemeanor assault charges.
Artest joined the Kings in January 2006.
Sheriff's deputies said they have responded to 911 calls from Artest's home five other
times since last August, and at least two of the calls involved domestic disturbances.
Last month, county animal-control officers seized his Great Dane, Socks, because it wasn't
being fed. The dog has since been released to the custody of one of Artest's lawyers.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): Raptors' Bargnani has appendectomy.
Toronto Raptors rookie Andrea Bargnani will be out indefinitely after undergoing emergency
appendectomy early Wednesday morning.
Oddsmakers have Toronto listed as 5-point favorites against the Orlando Magic tonight with
the total set at 195. Some oddsmakers adjusted the pointspread from 5 ½ to 5 points shortly
after Bargnani's status was announced.
Several Italian media sources, including La Gazette dello Sport website, reported Bargnani
became ill after team practice yesterday and had surgery at a Toronto hospital last night
to remove his appendix.
The Raptors say they don't have a timetable for the 7-foot forward's return. The Toronto
Star reported the recovery time for an appendectomy is normally about a month, which would
mean the Raptors would be without the talented rookie.
Bargnani is one of the Raptors' best offensive players and normally is the first player of
the bench. He’s averaging 11.5 points and 3.9 rebounds in 64 games this season.
His contributions don’t stop there. The statistics may not support it, but Bargnani is the
Raptors' best 3-point shooter and when he is on the court opposing defenses must respect
his shooting ability. This gives All-Star teammate Chris Bosh room to operate in the paint
when Bargnani is making his shots from the perimeter.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): bucks redd out.
Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Redd missed practice Monday and is questionable for tonight’s
game against the visiting Los Angeles Clippers.
Oddsmakers have not yet released a line for this game.
A club spokesperson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Redd had a stomach virus and
will be reevaluated. He leads the Bucks in scoring with a 27.2 average through 46 games.
Without Redd, the Bucks were 3-17 SU and 8-12 ATS.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): o'neal doubtful for pacers at spurs.
Indiana Pacers starting power forward Jermaine O’Neal is considered doubtful for tonight’s
game against the San Antonio Spurs because of a sore left knee.
Oddsmakers have the Pacers listed as 13-point underdogs with the total set at 184.
O’Neal injured his knee last night against the Houston Rockets. He recently missed three
games because of a similar injury and Indiana went 1-2 against the spread without him.
“He had another episode with his knee,” Pacers coach Rick Carlisle told the Indianapolis
Star after last night’s game. “He’s going to be very doubtful (against the Spurs).”
The All-Star forward is averaging 19.7 points and 9.9 rebounds in 57 games this season. The
Pacers are 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread without O’Neal this year. Troy Murphy
should get the start in O’Neal’s place.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): Short-term memory: Recent stats rule with NBA handicapping.
Check out this season's scoring and shooting stats. There isn't much difference between the
No. 1 team and the No. 30 team in most major categories, leaving very little to exploit
from a sharp bettors' perspective.
And it gets worse as the season goes on. The more games played, the less variance in these
numbers. But there's a potential silver lining in that cloud because bettors aren't the
only ones paying attention to season-long statistics; sportsbooks do too.
Consider that if a team scores 120 points per game in its first five games, it will be
reflected in the season-long stats (120.0 points per game). However, if that team scores
120 per game at this point in the season after putting up 95 points a game for the first 65
games, oddsmakers might not pick up on the change (the season scoring average only jumps to
96.8 points per game).
That's why it's vital to tear yourself away from season-long numbers and attach extra
weight to recent games.
I try to illustrate that here, with one stat in particular. Season-long numbers uncover no
advantage for the bettor. Concentrating on only the most recent games, however, unveils a
potentially huge betting advantage.
Here are the best and worst teams this season in terms of relative field goal percentage
(the gap between a team’s field goal percentage on offense and the field goal percentage
allowed on defense):
Top 5 (entire season)
Phoenix Suns, +3.7
San Antonio Spurs, +2.6
Utah Jazz, +2.6
Orlando Magic, +2.3
Houston Rockets, +1.9
The top group is a combined 212-121 straight up (SU) for the season, a winning percentage
of .637. No surprise - they regularly shoot better than their opponents.
Bottom 5 (entire season)
Charlotte Hornets, -2.5
Memphis Grizzlies, -2.3
Atlanta Hawks, -2.2
Boston Celtics, -2.0
Portland Trail Blazers, -2.0
The bottom group is only 114-221 (.340) SU. Again, that’s not surprising.
Because both groups of teams have been so consistent, sportsbooks have factored in their
relative strengths and weaknesses and adjusted the lines.
As a result, there’s not a huge difference in the against the spread (ATS) records of the
two groups: 163-162-8 (.501) ATS for the top group and 158-173-4 (.477) ATS for the bottom
teams.
March results, however, suggest that relative field goal percentage could be an effective
tool when used with only recent results.
Top 5, (March only)
Cleveland Cavaliers, +6.0
Denver Nuggets, +5.1
Golden State Warriors, +3.8
Phoenix Suns, +3.2
New York Knicks and Utah Jazz, +1.9
These guys are 34-16 (.680) SU in March, not too different from the year-long leaders.
Their combined 32-17-1 (.653) ATS record, however, is light years ahead of the season-long
leaders.
Bottom 5 (March only)
Charlotte Bobcats, -5.2
New Orleans Hornets, -5.2
Minnesota Timberwolves, -4.6
Seattle SuperSonics, -3.7
Los Angeles Lakers, -3.3
This group is 12-31 (.279) ATS. Once again, however, sportsbooks haven’t fully accounted
for how poorly these teams have played recently, as their 13-26-4 (.333) ATS record
attests.
The gap becomes even more striking if you consider the teams with the greatest improvements
and drops in relative field goal percentage (comparing their March number to their entire
season’s number).
Top 5 improved teams in March
Cleveland Cavaliers, +5.9 (+0.1 for the season, +6.0 in March)
Denver Nuggets, +4.7
Golden State Warriors, +3.8
Washington Wizards, +2.9
Portland Trail Blazers, +2.4
This group combines for a 26-16 (.619) SU record for March and an unreal ATS record of
29-13 (.690).
Five teams taking the biggest plunge in March
Minnesota Timberwolves, -4.1
New Orleans Hornets, -4.1
Los Angeles Lakers, -3.4
Charlotte Hornets, -2.7
Seattle SuperSonics, -2.5
The teams with the biggest lapse in relative field goal percentage in March are identical
to the five teams with the worst overall number for March, but rearranged. They maintain
the same 12-31 (.279) SU and 13-26-4 (.333) ATS records as noted above.
To reiterate, the season-long numbers give bettors a 50.1-to-47.7 percent advantage, which
is to say no advantage at all. Using the March numbers only, however, gives bettors a
69.0-to-33.3 percent advantage.
In actual sports terms, what the Milwaukee Bucks did in early January with Michael Redd
injured and Terry Stotts at head coach means very little to predicting how the Bucks will
perform in late-March with a healthy Redd and Larry Krystowiak on the sidelines.
So why let those January results taint your handicapping?
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