March 28 , 2007 , 2006 HOME - SPORTS NEWS
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Free NBA Picks- (covers.com): injuries shake up raptors offense.
The Toronto Raptors weren’t seen as a playoff-caliber team coming into the season, but
their ascent during the winter months caught everyone’s attention.
Bettors especially kept an eye on the Raps after a 16-5-1 against the spread (ATS) run to
end the first half of the season, giving them the NBA’s best ATS record at the All-Star
break.
“They’re a unique team when they’re healthy,” says Sportsmemo.com’s Rob Veno. “No other
team in the league has three guys at that height who can shoot the ball like that.”
The “three guys” in question are Chris Bosh, Jorge Garbajosa and Andrea Bargnani – the top
three Toronto big men in minutes played.
Bosh is the All-Star, but he and ultra-quick point guards T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon have
room to drive the lane because Garbajosa and Bargnani are such dangerous 3-point shooters.
The rookie pair either drags defenders away from the lane or punishes teams that leave them
unguarded on the perimeter.
Or at least that’s how it used to be.
Bargnani was lost for an extended period last week when he had an emergency appendectomy
and Garbajosa was lost for the season on Monday night after a gruesome leg injury.
Toronto’s unconventional offense has to start playing a more conventional game and that’s
bad news for Raptors backers.
“I like to look two or three days ahead in the schedule and I had Toronto circled for
Wednesday’s home game against the Heat, but as soon as that injury happened I immediately
scratched them,” Veno says. “I don’t think oddsmakers will see Garbajosa’s injury as big as
I do.”
Bargnani and Garbajosa, two symbols of the Raptors’ Euro makeover under GM Bryan Colangelo,
are out. Joey Graham will likely get the biggest boost in minutes, though Morris Peterson
may challenge him in that role.
Lumbering center Rasho Nesterovic will have to play more too. He has been a starter all
season, but averages only 20 minutes a game, usually giving way to Bargnani early.
NBA bettors had a taste of the Raptors’ conventional offense on Monday night against the
Celtics. It was a sour taste.
"We weren't playing our brand of basketball. We were playing a little one-on-one," Peterson
told the Toronto Star. "When we play simple basketball, move the ball and find the guys in
their spots, I think we can play with anybody, but when we don't, we lose to teams like
Boston."
Every cloud has a silver lining, however, and Veno is quick to point out a possible benefit
from Toronto’s misfortune.
“They’ve got to go with a different style of offense now and it usually takes four of five
games for a new unit to gel,” the NBA handicapper says. “But in the meantime, I might look
at playing the under.”
“They’re losing some scoring with the big guys out, but guys like Nesterovic and Graham
make them a little bigger on the defensive end, maybe grab a few more rebounds too.”
Toronto hosts the Miami Heat tonight and travels to play the Washington Wizards on Friday.
All three teams are currently scrambling for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference.
Milwaukee scored 101 points against the Spurs and 97 points against the Bobcats. Korner
says that the games weren’t significant enough to establish the type of pace we can expect
from the Bucks for the rest of the season, but Krystowiak tipped his hand to the local
media after accepting the top job.
"If you look at the upper-echelon teams in the league right now, the one thing you notice
is the high assist total, guys are sharing the ball," Krystkowiak told the Milwaukee
Journal-Sentinel. "We're going to push the tempo. Mo (Williams) at the point guard pushes
the ball well, and we've got some bigs that can run.”
It may be those bigs who relish the coaching change more than anyone else. Talented
youngsters Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva were reportedly not seeing eye-to-eye with
Stotts (and not only because they towered over the former coach).
Krystowiak’s role as an assistant coach had him working with the Bucks’ big men and he
fostered an especially strong working relationship with Bogut.
The Aussie center made headlines of his own recently by getting ejected for a flagrant foul
on Toronto Raptors star Chris Bosh, then flipping off the hometown fans while leaving the
floor. Only Bogut knows what was going through his mind at the time, but the installation
of his mentor as the head coach is undoubtedly a positive step for his development.
"The style we're going to play initially, where we're not getting too carried away with a
bunch of sets, but we're going to ask people to make basketball plays, puts (Bogut) in a
position of strength," Krystowiak told the Journal-Sentinel.
"I'm really curious to see the numbers he puts up through that. We'll put the ball in his
hands. Andrew knows he's a piece of the puzzle."
So far, so good for Bogut: he's played more than 40 minutes in each of Krystowiak's first
two games as head coach and is averaging 15.0 points and 11.5 rebounds.
Bettors should know that Krystowiak isn’t an interim head coach. He impressed Milwaukee
brass enough to justify a four-year deal with the first two years guaranteed. The
Journal-Sentinel reports that the contract is worth $2 million a year.
If team management has that much confidence in him and the players like him as much as
reported, Krystowiak’s promotion could trigger a profitable stretch run for the Bucks and
their backers.
“I think the Bucks could take a deep breath and play well, with no pressure on,” Malinsky
says. “At the same time, it might genuinely be an upgrade anyway – Stotts appeared to be a
bit overmatched. So for once, one of these late changes really could spark the team.”
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): ray allen out for season.
This just in: the Seattle Supersonics are a bad team without Ray Allen.
Then again, they were never really that good anyway.
Seattle lost 120-79 at home to the San Antonio Spurs Sunday night after learning just hours
before the game that Allen will miss the rest of the season to get surgery on both his
ankles.
Ankle problems also forced Allen out of the two previous games, though he has harbored
thoughts of playing out the season. He has missed 14 games because of his ankles this year
and the Sonics are 4-9-1 against the spread in those games. That includes an 0-2-1 record
heading into Tuesday’s game against the Minnesota Timberwolves – Seattle’s first road game
without Allen in 2007. The Supersonics are 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread on
the road without their leader and leading scorer in the lineup.
No Sonics player scored more than 16 points on Sunday and Seattle shot just 37 percent from
the floor and 25 percent from the three-point line. Damien Wilkins, Allen’s replacement at
shooting guard, scored seven points on 3-for-12 shooting.
“There's no question that Allen means a lot to this team,” says Sean Murphy of The Miller
Group. “Without him in the lineup, they become very one-dimensional offensively with
Rashard Lewis their only go-to guy. With nothing to play for, they'll probably have a tough
time getting up for many games down the stretch.”
The Sonics (27-42) have the fifth-fewest wins and the sixth-worst winning percentage in the
league. They are seven games back of the Boston Celtics for what is becoming a coveted top
two pick (pingpong balls pending) in this year’s draft, but just two games back of the
Charlotte Bobcats for the third spot.
“When it comes to bottom-feeding teams, they don't really need to throw games, they're
usually bad enough as it is,” says Murphy. “I would think that these guys would have a
little too much pride to stoop so low. The way the NBA lottery works, the worst teams don't
always get the best picks anyway.”
The Timberwolves’ chances aren’t much better at 30-39. Minnesota is 3 ½ games back of the
Los Angeles Clippers for the final playoff spot in the West with two teams in front of it.
Minnesota is an equally bad bet of late with a 2-6-2 record against the spread in its last
10, making the Timberwolves among the NBA’s least profitable teams on the season. They
trail only the Sacramento Kings (29-40-1 against the spread) with a 29-38-1 record on the
season.
This is the second meeting in five days for the Timberwolves and Sonics. Seattle won 85-82
at home on Friday night and pushed the 3-point spread. Lewis carried the load in that game
with 22 points but the Sonics struggled from the floor once again, shooting 36 percent.
Minnesota shot 45 percent from the floor in that game, but committed 15 turnovers against
Seattle’s five.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): Raptors' Bargnani injure leg after coning back for
appendectomy.
Toronto Raptors forward Jorge Garbajosa is expected to miss six months after undergoing
surgery on his left ankle and leg on Tuesday.
Garbajosa suffered a displaced ankle joint with a ligament tear and a fractured fibula
after falling awkwardly in Monday night's game at Boston.
He averaged 8.9 points and 4.9 rebounds in his rookie season. The Raptors are +700 to win
the Eastern Conference on sportsbook.com.
''We're going to miss Garbo. He brings a lot to our team,'' Toronto coach Sam Mitchell
said. ''We just hope he has a speedy recovery and gets healthy is ready to play next
year.''
Garbajosa was coming back on defense trying to block Celtics forward Al Jefferson's dunk.
He fell hard, grabbed his leg and yelled to the bench for help.
The Raptors medical staff covered Garbajosa's leg with a towel. He was later loaded onto a
stretcher and wheeled off the court.
Toronto signed Garbajosa to a three-year, $12 million contract last summer after he played
11 seasons in Europe. The 6-foot-9 starter earned a number of honors during his European
playing career, including 2005 and 2006 Spanish club finals MVP. He helped Spain win the
world championship last summer.
Toronto is already dealing with the loss of No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani, who had an
appendectomy last Wednesday and is expected to miss the rest of the season.
NBA PLAYOFFS- (asociated press): charlottes okafor returns wednesday.
Charlotte Bobcats forward Emeka Okafor practiced Tuesday and is ready to return after
missing 15 games with a strained left calf.
Okafor, the team's top rebounder and shot blocker, said he felt no discomfort during the
90-minute workout and plans to play Wednesday against Atlanta.
''It felt great. I'm just getting the rest of my body sharp,'' Okafor said. ''We took the
necessary steps to gradually work our way up to this point. I'm pretty sure I won't have
soreness.''
The Bobcats have gone 4-11 without Okafor, who is averaging 14.9 points and 11.7 rebounds a
game. Charlotte is a +100000 long shot to win the NBA Eastern Conference
NBA PLAYOFFS- (associated press): Tanking games? If only NBA's bad teams were that good.
It's easy to see how fans of the Memphis Grizzlies and just about every team in the NBA's
Atlantic Division could get the wrong impression.
Short of a confession, though, there's still no way to prove a team is tanking games.
Remember that as the clunkers pile up during the last dozen or so regular-season games
remaining on each team's schedule.
Conspiracy theorists love this time of year because the draft matters way more in the NBA
than in major league baseball, even more than in the NFL, and more this year than most.
It's one of the deepest in a while and likely topped by Ohio State's Greg Oden and Texas'
Kevin Durant, two guys who need seasoning but could dominate for a decade.
With only five players on the floor, nearly all of the league's championships have been won
by teams that locked up one or two of the best, and most of those come to town as one of
the first six players taken in the draft. Less obvious is whether it's really worth losing
games to get there, and if so, how many.
Evidence of teams not giving - how to put this? - their all in recent days is scattered all
around. The Bucks, already languishing near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, shut down
two of their best players, Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, rather than risk letting
nagging injuries become chronic ones. Last week the Celtics, who are looking up at the
Bucks, left all five starters on the bench as they blew an 18-point lead to lowly
Charlotte.
''I was not throwing the game, or anything like that,'' Boston coach Doc Rivers said.
''I've heard all those questions. Honestly, I got to the point early in the fourth quarter
and I turned to the coaches and said to them, 'We are either going to win or lose with this
group.'''
Not to be outdone, Charlotte played New Jersey a few nights later already minus two injured
starters and decided to sit two others, Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton, for good measure
- and lost.
Conspiracy theorists immediately began arguing whether: a.) Wallace and Felton sat because
they needed the rest; b.) Bobcats part-owner Michael Jordan ordered the benchings to
improve his own team's chances of losing and thus gaining an extra pingpong ball in the
lottery; or c.) since those same Nets are fighting the free-falling Knicks, among others,
for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, Jordan did it because of a lifelong
grudge against Knicks coach Isiah Thomas.
And of course, it didn't help matters when Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy told the Houston
Chronicle earlier this week he had a plan that would keep teams from losing intentionally.
''I don't want to accuse anyone of anything. I would say to take away any possible conflict
of interest, everyone should have an equal chance at the top pick all the way down. That
way there would be absolutely no question by anybody about anything.
''If it's better for the game, they should do it,'' Van Gundy added. ''I never quite
understood why losing is rewarded, other than (for) parity.''
But parity is precisely the point.
There's not a business in the land that wouldn't jump at the chance for a do-over every
year, but only pro sports makes it a point to grant that wish. Unfortunately, few of those
wishes pan out.
Even with a lottery pick, chances of drafting a player who blossoms into a Magic Johnson,
Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal or Dwyane Wade are slim enough. And research by ESPN.com concluded
that even a five-game drop in the standings improves a team's chances of landing the top
pick in the lottery by only a few percentage points. Few enough, anyway, that it would make
a difference ''only about once every two decades.''
The NBA has explained the math countless times and tweaked the draft rules nearly as often
to take even that incentive away. Drafts were originally based on territorial rights, then
the top pick awarded to the winner of a coin flip between the worst teams. After widespread
accusations of tanking in the months leading up to the 1984 draft - the top five picks in
order: Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Bowie, Jordan, Sam Perkins, Charles Barkley - the league put
one envelope for each non-playoff team in a basket and drew out a winner.
The following year, with Patrick Ewing as the top prize, commissioner David Stern pulled
the Knicks envelope first and set in motion a rumor that persists to this day - that the
Knicks envelope was stuck in a freezer just before the selection so he'd have no trouble
finding it. After the Magic landed O'Neal and Penny Hardaway with the top picks in
successive drafts, the NBA tried weighting the lottery so the worst teams' chances improved
by giving them more pingpong balls in the hopper.
A lot of good that will do the Knicks. They've played just well enough to stave off Thomas'
firing, but since the reprieve, have dropped six of their last seven heading into
Wednesday's home game against Cleveland. Because the Knicks agreed to swap first-round
picks with the Bulls in the deal that brought Eddy Curry to New York, they could fall into
the lottery and wind up drafting in Chicago's position - likely somewhere above No. 20 -
instead. But they're certain to have competition.
newbodog.com lists the Knicks at +7000 to win the Eastern Conference Championship.
No less a conspiracy theorist than Dallas owner Mark Cuban saw this coming, Back in
January, he asked on his Web site, blogmaverick.com, ''Could it be that if the division
continues to win at the same percentages that only the Knicks will (have) an incentive not
to tank the season and win the division by default?
''Of course,'' Cuban added, ''the chances of any of this are slim, right?''
NBA PLAYOFFS- (covers.com): match up odds for 2007 nba finals.
Mavs vs Pistons +280
Mavs vs Heat +650
Mavs vs Raptors +1400
Mavs vs Bulls +1600
Mavs vs Wizards +2500
Mavs vs Cavs +650
Spurs vs Pistons +600
Spurs vs Heat +1300
Spurs vs Raptors +2500
Spurs vs Bulls +3000
Spurs vs Wizards +5500
Spurs vs Cavs +1300
Lakers vs Pistons +8000
Lakers vs Heat +16000
Lakers vs Raptors +32000
Lakers vs Bulls +35000
Lakers vs Wizards +65000
Lakers vs Cavs +16000
Suns vs Pistons +500
Suns vs Heat +1100
Suns vs Raptors +2300
Suns vs Bulls +2500
Suns vs Wizards +4500
Suns vs Cavs +1100
Jazz vs Pistons +3000
Jazz vs Heat +6000
Jazz vs Raptors +12000
Jazz vs Bulls +14000
Jazz vs Wizards +25000
Jazz vs Cavs +6000
Rockets vs Pistons +2500
Rockets vs Heat +5500
Rockets vs Raptors +11000
Rockets vs Bulls +13000
Rockets vs Wizards +23000
Rockets vs Cavs +5500
Field (any other matchup) +800
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