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NFL PICKS & NFL FREE PICKS
NFL PICKS- (covers.com) bookmakers not rattled by week one line mistakes.
It's going to take a lot more than a Week 1 string of NFL unders to scare oddsmakers into revamping their strategy for Week 2's totals.
The opening week of the NFL saw 12 of the 16 scheduled games play under the total.
This trend of unders has had a slight impact on the totals for this week`s schedule, say bookmakers at newbodog.com. Even if the totals are slightly adjusted, it will be the betting action which will determine any subsequent line moves.
That`s because the books made out with a tidy profit on their total bets last week and they`re in no rush to overreact.
Of the 16 games in Week 1 the over was preferred by bettors in 12 of them, says Bill Nevin, an oddsmaker for betUSA.com. I think we`d edge [Week 2's totals] about a point lower than we would otherwise have done because the total bettors with money are the under bettors.
Books have not made any major adjustments to this week's numbers, projecting the collective total points for Week 2 at 628. That`s just 5 ½ points lower than last week's 633 ½ projected total points. The average total for Week 1 was 39 ½, overshooting the actual production of 34.5 point per game. Week 2's average total opened at just over 39 points.
Week 1 totals are always a bit of guesswork, says Nevin. But only three moved off the opening line (Miami-Pittsburgh moved from 37 ½ to 34 and played over; Cincinnati-Kansas City moved from 49 ½ to 46 and went under; Minnesota-Washington moved from 37 to 36 and went under) so we must have done something right.
Books are pointing to teams struggling with new offenses as the reason for the rush of unders in Week 1, expecting the final scores to balance on both sides of the total as the season progresses.
Week 1 is the first opportunity for teams to run at true `game speed`, say newbodog.com bookmakers. As the season progresses, we fully expect the offences to rebound from their terrible starts and keep pace with the defense.
The average score of a losing team in Week 1 was 11.68 points, a stat that oddsmakers believe is exclusive to the early schedule.
I think it simply shows that early on in the season it is easier to defend than attack, says Nevin. The offense of many teams is still learning to work together and some of the athletes are not going to be at their peak. A good team will not be expecting to play its best football in Week 1.
Sportsbooks are not expecting any different from football gamblers heading into this Sunday's action, looking for the majority of the money to fall on the over.
Almost always we see a bias towards the over. The average bettor is hoping to see lots of action and there is a `wish fulfillment` element to a lot of people`s betting, says Nevin. As the season goes on and bettors identify poor teams and the weather gets colder, then we start to see more people betting the under.
But while the weather is good the over is the popular choice.
NFL PICKS : (covers): patriots trade branch to seahawks.
Sooner or later, they will make a reality TV show about professional athletes holding out for bigger contracts.
I'm not sure what they'll name it yet. Maybe Selfish Athletes or Million Dollar Cry Babies. I just know that I won't be watching it.
For one, I hate reality TV. Secondly, what's there to watch? Ashley Lelie studying game film of the Atlanta Falcons and then suddenly realizing Michael Vick throws less than Evander Hollyfield's comeback opponent?
Come on Ash. That hand won`t even get you into the Saturday night Covers.com poker game.
Then, there's the off-hand chance we might catch Tom Brady ripping Robert Kraft for not forking over enough dough to keep Deion Branch. The guy only won you a Super Bowl two years ago by making a record-tying 11 catches against Philadelphia, which by the way, had three Pro Bowlers in its secondary. And let`s not forget his 10 receptions in the big game the year before either.
But this is Kraft. He's mac-and-cheese cheap.
So off to Seattle goes Deion, making last year's Super Bowl runner-ups even better. The entire NFC hates you right now Mr. Kraft, if they didn't already.
Seahawks bettors…well they don't even know where to start.
How about:
Matt Hasselbeck
Gunslinger extraordinaire and presumably the best quarterback in the NFC, Hasselbeck should enjoy a career year with the addition of Branch. It will take some time for Branch to learn Seattle's offense, but since the deal has been in the works since late August I'm guessing Branch has kept busy in the study.
On Sunday, Hasselbeck completed 25-of-30 attempts, netting 210 yards against a rough Lions defense. But he failed to throw a touchdown pass – something that happened just twice last year.
While Hasselbeck did hit eight different receivers in Seattle's 9-6 win, but the Seahawks failed to cover the 6-point spread.
Darrell Jackson
don't think Jackson didn't know Seattle was talking to Branch.
Jackson missed the entire preseason and training camp recovering from his second surgery in four months before somehow mustering the strength to practice last Monday and play Sunday against Detroit. Jackson made five receptions for 47 yards.
While Jackson isn't about to hand his job to Branch, nor does he sound happy about the trade, Seattle's deep receiving core does afford Jackson an opportunity to rest a little bit more during games.
Seattle would much rather a healthy Jackson for its playoff run. They`re already without tight end Jeremy Stevens until October. Losing another big receiving threat would be disastrous.
Reports have surfaced that Jackson may have a degenerative knee injury, which would explain his sudden rush back into the lineup. Head coach Mike Holgren planned to use Jackson for only 25 snaps on Sunday but kept him in for the entire game because the contest was close.
Jackson missed Monday's practice but is expected to practice Wednesday.
Shaun Alexander
How do you make the league's reigning MVP better? It`s tough.
Branch's addition likely won't do much for Alexander except take an extra defensive back off the line every now and then. As Seattle showed on Sunday, Alexander's inclusion in the offense will be slow and steady. About the only thing Branch will do is help ease that process along.
This isn't anything new either. Alexander rushed only 14 times for 73 yards in Week 1 last season before touching the rock at least 20 times in Seattle's next 10 games.
Seattle's spread and totals
This is where Branch could either burn or help Seahawks backers. My guess is that next week against Arizona, if Branch plays, he'll definitely help over backers once he gets his feet wet.
Oddsmakers set Sunday's total at 47 before the Branch news came down and it hasn't budged since.
Neither has the Seattle –7 line.
He is a good player but he's not a Terrell Owens or a Clinton Portis - someone who definitely impacts the line, says one BetWWTS linesmaker. So we have to see how he does in the first game.
This is where bettors can get a jump on sportsbooks. Public bettors will be all over the Seahawks with the hype surrounding Branch. Laying seven at home against the high-powered Arizona Cardinals offense is risky business, even with Seattle's stellar defense.
But the public will push this line up to 7 ½, maybe even 8 around Friday when ESPN will show Branch in practice, trading smiles with Matt Hasselbeck. And that's when it's time to come back on the Cardinals.
FREE NFL PICKS. (covers.com): new coach doing wonders for chiefs under bets.
That sure didn't take long.
In just one game coaching the Kansas City Chiefs, Herman Edwards has destroyed all the excitement Dick Vermeil and Al Saunders created in five years.
Edwards, with his conservative approach and poor clock management skills, defanged an offense that scored the most points in the NFL from 2001-2005.
Can you imagine the Chiefs scoring just 10 points at home against an opportunistic, but thoroughly mediocre Bengals defense?
Oddsmakers have taken notice. No more Kansas City totals in the high 40s or low 50s. The Kansas City-Denver total is 40. It's not just because Trent Green is out with a concussion.
Even if Green were to play the total still would be that low, says Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. When Green was playing, the Chiefs weren't moving the ball.
Maybe Vermeil bailed at just the right time, knowing the Chiefs wouldn't have retired offensive left tackle Willie Roaf, departed fullback Tony Richardson, and tailback Priest Holmes for at least the first six games if not the entire season.
Then there's the age factor. Green is 35. Eddie Kennison is 33. Tony Gonzalez is in his 10th season and five offensive linemen are older than 30. The clock is ticking.
But of all the people available for their head coaching vacancy, the Chiefs choose Edwards. What, Antonin Scalia or Rush Limbaugh weren't interested? Edwards is so conservative he probably has the pledge of allegiance written in the Chiefs playbook.
Edwards picked Mike Solari to be his offensive coordinator. Solari's background is coaching the offensive line. He's never been an offensive coordinator in the pros before. His inexperience manifested itself when he messed up a play-call in the red zone during Kansas City's second possession.
When Edwards coached the Jets, it was run Curtis Martin right. Run Curtis Martin left. Run Curtis Martin up the middle, with a short pass mixed in once in a while. The goal wasn't the goal line, but the goal posts - as in three points, not six.
Say goodbye to Kansas City finishing among the top five in yardage a sixth straight year. Say goodbye to scoring 30 or more points, a feat the Chiefs accomplished 30 times the previous five seasons. Say goodbye to big plays. Say goodbye to never being out of a game despite a bad defense.
Say hello to Dustin Colquitt. He's the Chiefs punter. You'll get to know him. And let's say hello again to Martyball. Marty Schottenheimer, though, is Ted Kennedy compared to Edwards.
True the Chiefs reached the postseason once during Vermeil's five-year reign, but they were 30-18 the past three years and would have been among the bottom five if their offense wasn't so potent.
Edwards even had the audacity to switch the Chiefs' home uniforms from red to white. Watching the Chiefs wearing white at home is like seeing Jessica Simpson in a burqa at the beach.
The Chiefs were 19-5-1 against the spread their previous 25 home openers. They had won 65 of their last 88 home games, all wearing red. Maybe white is the right color, since the Chiefs will be surrendering if they can't keep up with opposing offenses.
Kansas City's defense is improved, but it's still nowhere near good enough to carry a conservative, play-for-field-position offense. Those who bet the Chiefs under 9 ½ wins for the season have themselves an excellent investment.
I'm not saying the Chiefs won't break the 10-point barrier the rest of their games. Larry Johnson ranks with Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson as one of the three best running backs. Green should be back in a couple of weeks, the offensive line still has talent, and Gonzalez remains a top five tight end.
But the philosophy has changed. The fun is gone. It's something Kansas City's great fan base realizes. They started booing Edwards on the Chiefs' second possession. Look for the booing to get louder.
FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press) : roethlisberger questionable monday night.
Pittsburgh Steelers coach Bill Cowher may not decide until this weekend if quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will start Monday night in Jacksonville, even if Roethlisberger already seems to have decided he is playing.
Oddsmakers have Pittsburgh listed as one-point favorites. The total is set at 36 1/2.
Roethlisberger missed the Steelers` opening 28-17 victory over Miami on Thursday after having an appendectomy on Sept. 3. He is listed as questionable, meaning there is a 50-50 chance he will play against the Jaguars.
The quarterback is convinced he will be ready for the only Monday night game this season for the Super Bowl champions. He threw to some receivers Tuesday, a day the team otherwise did not work out, and has told Cowher he wants to play.
Asked if he thinks Roethlisberger will push hard to get on the field, Cowher said, ``Yes.``
The bottom line is making sure he`s comfortable, he feels like he can protect himself and he`s going out there not thinking about those things,`` Cowher said. ``It`s getting the (medical) clearance, dealing with going through the work load and seeing how his body responds to that.``
Cowher emphasized Roethlisberger has had a stressful few months medically, with his near-fatal June 12 motorcycle accident and the appendicitis attack less than three months later.
The kid`s been through a lot,`` Cowher said. ``That`s the thing that I want to make sure of, that he is comfortable and he feels good about himself. Then we`ll make the decision at that point. Again, I`m not ready to say (now), `OK, the doctors say he`s OK.`
He`s a very competitive young man, and we`ll talk. We have an open dialogue, and we`ll go from there.``
Roethlisberger is expected to practice Wednesday, the first workout the Steelers will have had in a week. They have an unusually long 11-day break between games, and Cowher said that could be beneficial for Roethlisberger.
Yes, he needs to practice,`` Cowher said. ``He`s not going to sit there and not practice until Monday and then have me say, `Go out and play.` ... We`ll see how he feels, see how efficiently he`s able to move around.``
Roethlisberger sat out a 23-17 overtime loss to Jacksonville last season because of a knee injury. In that loss, backup Tommy Maddox committed four turnovers in one of the worst games by a quarterback in team history.
In the overtime, Maddox not only lost a fumble that likely prevented the Steelers from kicking a decisive field goal, he threw the interception that Rashean Mathis returned 41 yards for the winning score. Maddox was cut by the team in March.
The Steelers got much better play against Miami last week from backup QB Charlie Batch, who threw three touchdown passes in his first season-opening start in five years. Batch, who replaced Maddox as Roethlisberger`s backup following that Jacksonville game last year, is 3-0 as a fill-in starter the last two seasons.
NFL PICKS- (covers.com): week two betting report.
One week into the NFL regular season and perceptions are being formed.
The Lions' defense is better. The 49ers are improved with playmakers on offense. The Texans have a new coach but remain terrible. The Saints could surprise. The Packers are horrendous. The Buccaneers are in for a long season.
These observations are reflected in the Week 2 opening line and some of the early moves.
Hard to believe, but the Packers are home underdogs to the Saints. Prior to this past Sunday, Green Bay probably would have been -3 or -3 ½ hosting New Orleans. But not after the Packers were shut out at home by Chicago, and the Saints looked good upsetting Cleveland.
Early money has moved New Orleans as high as -2 against Green Bay after linesmakers opened the Packers -1.
Saying New Orleans would be a four-point favorite on a neutral field against Green Bay is something I don't see, says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. There's a lot of overreaction to Week 1. As an oddsmaker, you have to be conscious of how the public is going to react when they see these teams for the first time.
I hate to do it as an oddsmaker, because in my heart I know some of these teams aren't as good or as bad as they showed, but you have to make adjustments based on what the public's going to do.
The public probably is going to lay 6 with Atlanta against Tampa Bay and go under the Lions-Bears total.
Based on how well the Falcons did against the Panthers and how the Bucs were shut out at home by the Ravens, oddsmakers opened Atlanta -6 hosting Tampa Bay.
Chris Simms may not be starting material, but taking six points with a playoff team in a division game against an inconsistent Falcons squad seems to present value.
Sharp bettors will be all over Tampa Bay +6, but as an oddsmaker you can't afford to make a favorite too small here because most of the parlay cards are going to be on the favorite, especially one that looked as good as Atlanta, says Seba.
If Detroit's defense didn't look so good in holding the Seahawks to three field goals, the Lions-Bears total might have been 35. Taking that into play, linesmakers opened the total at 33. It's currently down to 32, rare for a September game.
Oddsmakers also are taking into account 10 of Sunday's 13 games going below the total. That's the way bettors saw it, since bookmakers adjusted every total downward last week.
While the bookmakers lost on Week 1 totals, they still enjoyed an excellent first week. They won most of the decisions where there were big lines moves, including Miami-Pittsburgh, Buffalo-New England, Seattle-Detroit, Dallas-Jacksonville and San Francisco-Arizona.
Speaking of San Francisco, it's surprising to see the 49ers as just 3-point underdogs at home to St. Louis. The oddsmakers at LVSC made the Rams -5 ½, Seba said. People must think the 49ers really are better, but we're talking about a team that finished last in offense and defense in 2005.
A lot of people were impressed with San Francisco hanging in against Arizona, Seba says. But that's a case of Arizona's defense being so bad it made San Francisco look good. If you're only going to make St. Louis -3, you must think San Francisco has improved a whole lot.
San Francisco is one of the two worst teams in the league. And you're only laying 3 with St. Louis?
It's hard to get the public enamored with the Texans. Not only did the Texans pass on Reggie Bush, but they were overwhelmed by the Eagles at home.
So the linesmakers at Pinnacle opened Indy -14 at home against Houston.
The sharps took the 14 and bought points up to 15, said a company spokesman for Pinnacle about the Texans-Colts line. Now the line is down to 13.
One professional gambler calls Week 2 the Go Slop week because to get value you'll have to go against early perceptions.
That means backing teams who stunk in Week 1 such as Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Houston and Tennessee.
It also means picking spots to bet the over since linesmakers have adjusted totals downward following Week 1.
We adjust on where the money went and what the results were, Seba says. All the money went on the under and the results were on the under, so you have to make that adjustment to the under."
FREE NFL PICKS (associated press) jacksonville places reggie hayward in injured reseerve.
The Jacksonville Jaguars placed defensive end Reggie Hayward on injured reserve Tuesday, two days after he ruptured his left Achilles` tendon.
Hayward led the team with 8 1/2 sacks and 59 quarterback pressures last season. He also had 47 tackles and two forced fumbles.
To replace Hayward, the Jaguars signed rookie defensive tackle Montavious Stanley to their active roster. Stanley had been on the Rams` practice squad. A sixth-round pick by Dallas in April, Stanley was waived in final cuts and signed by St. Louis.
The Jags also re-signed offensive tackle Ryan Gibbons to the practice squad after the Rams signed center Brett Romberg to their active roster. St. Louis needed a center after veteran starter Andy McCollum tore two knee ligaments in his left knee Sunday.
Romberg played one game in three-plus seasons with the Jaguars, spending most of the time on the practice squad. Gibbons was an undrafted rookie free agent from Northeastern who was waived in final cuts.
NFL PICKS- (associated press): carolina linebacker dan morgan out after concussion.
Carolina linebacker Dan Morgan will not play Sept. 17 at Minnesota as he recovers from a concussion.
All-Pro receiver Steve Smith and center Justin Hartwig also missed practice and were listed as questionable for the game.
Morgan, who has a history of concussions, was injured in the second quarter of Carolina's 20-6 loss to Atlanta on Sept. 10. Adam Seward replaced Morgan at middle linebacker against the Falcons and probably will start against the Vikings.
Smith strained his left hamstring during practice Sept. 5 and hasn't been on the field since. The team would only say that he remains day-to-day.
Drew Carter started in place of Smith last week and had five catches for 62 yards.
Hartwig, who has a groin injury, is another concern for the Panthers' offensive line. On Sept. 10, Carolina starting left tackle Travelle Wharton was lost for the season when he tore the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in his left knee.
Jordan Gross is expected to move from right tackle to left tackle and Todd Fordham would play at right tackle against the Vikings.
FREE NFL PICKS (associated press): browns wide reciver out with rib injury.
Browns wide receiver Joe Jurevicius did not suffer any broken ribs in Cleveland's season-opening loss to New Orleans but will miss the Sept. 17 game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Jurevicius was injured in the first quarter on Sept. 10 while making a 20-yard catch on a fourth-down play that was called back by a penalty.
Coach Romeo Crennel said Jurevicius "has some rib-area damage" but would not elaborate.
Joe is definitely out this week," Crennel said. "I don't have a long-range forecast. I'm going week-to-week and next week, we'll look at him again. I'll let you know next week what I think then."
With Jurevicius sidelined, Josh Cribbs, a converted college quarterback, and rookie Travis Wilson could see time as Cleveland's No. 3 receiver. Wilson was inactive in Week 1.
During the season opener, Cribbs, the club's primary kickoff returner, didn't come up with a crucial sideline pass late in the game from quarterback Charlie Frye. Cribbs said he was at fault on the play, and Crennel blamed the miscue on a lack of focus.
Also, cornerback Daylon McCutcheon was back on the practice field. He has been out since undergoing knee surgery during training camp. Crennel said they would evaluate McCutcheon's progress before deciding if he'll play.
FREE NFL PICKS - (associated press): drug testing issue at forefront for union.
The NFL is talking with its players' union about beefing up its testing program for performance-enhancing drugs with the changes possibly taking effect this season, according to a newspaper report.
The changes could include more testing and increasing the number of banned substances, The New York Times reported Wednesday.
We are in the process of re-evaluation, trying to determine if more is better, if it's the right time to add substances, to add more tests," Harold Henderson, the league's executive vice president for labor relations, told the paper. "It might make sense to do some tweaking."
The NFL does approximately 10,000 tests for performance-enhancing drugs a year and there are about 2,000 players in the league. Players are randomly selected for testing and can be tested during the offseason.
The NFL announced in June that it added amphetamines to the list of banned performance-enhancers starting this season.
Amphetamines were previously listed as a "substance-abuse drug," but are now in the same category as steroids and other enhancers that carry much stronger penalties. This season will serve as a transition year, where a first positive test would bring a warning and put a player into the drug program.
But in 2007, amphetamines will be tested for on a regular basis. A first positive test will result in a four-game suspension, the same penalty now levied for positive steroids tests.
In addition to the amphetamines change, the penalty for a second positive test for performance-enhancing drugs was increased from six to eight games. A third positive test still carries a one-year suspension.
NFL PICKS- (associated press): MNF opener draws ESPN's highest rating ever
ESPN's first regular-season Monday night NFL game under the new contract drew the cable network's biggest audience ever.
The game between the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins, won 19-16 by Minnesota, drew a 9.9 rating, representing an average of between nearly 9.2 million and 12.57 million households, the network said. The previous record was 8.9 million households on Christmas Day 2004 for a game between Detroit and Miami.
ESPN's second Monday night game, San Diego's 27-0 victory against Oakland, received a rating of 8.5 and was seen in an average of 7.87 million households.
The first game began at 7 p.m. ET and the second started at 10:15.
An estimated 22.6 million viewers watched Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts beat younger brother Eli's New York Giants in NBC's prime-time game on Sept. 10.
FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press): redskins safety out for season.
Pierson Prioleau, a key special-teams player and backup safety for the Washington Redskins, tore the ACL in his right knee and is out for the season.
Prioleau, an eight-year veteran, was hurt covering the opening kickoff without even taking a hit.
I stuck my foot in the ground to plant, and my knee didn't agree," he said.
The 29-year-old Prioleau will have surgery in about two weeks, once the swelling subsides.
NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) redskins Pierson Prioleau out for season.
Pierson Prioleau, a key special-teams player and backup safety for the Washington Redskins, tore the ACL in his right knee and is out for the season.
Prioleau, an eight-year veteran, was hurt covering the opening kickoff without even taking a hit.
I stuck my foot in the ground to plant, and my knee didn't agree," he said.
The 29-year-old Prioleau will have surgery in about two weeks, once the swelling subsides.
NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) : redskins jansen to meet with officials.
Washington Redskins offensive tackle Jon Jansen will meet soon with NFL officials to discuss his allegations that a number of NFL players use human growth hormone and other performance-enhancing substances.
NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said a date for the meeting had not been set. He said the meeting would not involve commissioner Roger Goodell, but would be with those involved with the league's drug-testing program.
Jansen said last week on HBO's Costas Now that "maybe 15, 20 percent" of the league's players use illegal performance-enhancers. He later backed down a bit, saying: "What I meant by it was a small number of players. Being a football player, I'm not real good at math. When you do the numbers, it sounds like a bigger percentage than it really is. I meant it was a small percentage of guys."
Jansen did have strong comments about HGH, for which there is no reliable test. He said he knows of no Redskins teammates who use it, "but other guys have talked about what goes on in other places."
When there is something out there that people believe is going to help them, we'd be very naive and foolish to think that if you can't test for it, guys are going to try it," Jansen said. "Right now there is not a test for human growth hormone, and when they develop that, I hope the NFL will institute that in our drug policy."
Goodell was in Washington for the Vikings-Redskins game.
Any time somebody makes comments like that, it's our obligation and responsibility to review it and understand it," he told the Washington Post.
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