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NFL PICKS- (covers.com) ravens @ bengals game of the week preview.
The Cincinnati Bengals are laying a field goal in Thursday`s game against the Baltimore Ravens, but with their season in jeopardy, they`ll probably be looking for a big win.
“If you take a look at the intangibles and motivational edges, they favor the Bengals," says Belmont.com linesmaker Peter Childs. "This is a must-must-win game for them. A loss here, their season is done. They have no shot catching the Ravens in the AFC North, so the Bengals are thinking just Wild Card."
To say the Bengals have failed to meet expectations this season is an understatement. Cincinnati’s 6-5 record equals that of the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars but still trails Denver and Kansas City for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.
Gaining ground won’t be easy either.
Baltimore (9-2) has won five straight and can clinch the AFC North with a win on Thursday. Like Cincinnati, the Ravens struggled about midway through the season but hit their stride after firing offensive coordinator Jim Fassel. Head coach Brian Billick took over the play-calling, focusing on more running plays and passes to the tight ends.
Five wins later, Baltimore is one of the most dangerous teams in the league. They beat a hapless Bengals squad 26-20 as 3-point home favorites four weeks ago, but the win didn’t buy Baltimore much respect when it came to setting this week’s line. It actually may have hurt the Ravens.
On top of keeping their playoff hopes alive, Cincinnati will be out for revenge. These two factors should help even the playing field, accor.
"I believe that is why the line is a solid 3 instead of say the Bengals - 2 or - 2 ½.," says Childs.
The home team is automatically awarded three points on the spread.
Although Cincinnati was at the tail end of a 1-5 stretch (0-5-1 ATS) when they lost to the Ravens, it has won two of three since, including back-to-back road games. Carson Palmer has thrown nine touchdowns during that span, five to wide receiver Chad Johnson. In all, Cincinnati has scored 105 points compared to 56 by its opponents.
“We thought about maybe bringing the Ravens in half a point for their win over the Bengals four weeks ago, but the Bengals have turned around a lot since that, so we just left it at 3,” says an oddsmaker from Sportsinteraction.
NFL PICKS : (associated press): cutler to replace plummer in denver as starter.
Rookie quarterback Jay Cutler will be the Denver Broncos` starter against the Seattle Seahawks next weekend.
Oddsmakers have the Broncos as 3-point favorites with the total set at 39.
Coach Mike Shanahan said Monday he has benched veteran Jake Plummer, who compiled lackluster numbers and led back-to-back losses to San Diego and Kansas City.
Cutler, the 11th pick out of Vanderbilt in the April draft, hasn`t taken a snap since the preseason. But his preseason passer rating was 108.3, best in the league, and Shanahan hopes the change can ignite the Broncos` struggling offense.
The team is 7-4, but ranks 26th in the league in yards passing per game (171.5).
Plummer has thrown 12 interceptions to go with 11 touchdowns, and he`s completed 55.6 percent of his passes for a meager 6.33 yards per attempt and a middling quarterback rating of 70.5.
It is the first time Plummer has been benched for a reason other than injury in his 10-year career. He`s 39-15 as Denver`s starter in the regular season. Shanahan and Plummer have the fifth-best regular season winning percentage - with a minimum 50 starts - since 1970.
FREE NFL PICKS. (covers.com): opening line report for week 13.
It’s rare for an NFL team to have three straight home games. It’s even more unusual for such a team to lose all three.
Those wagering early believe it`s going to happen to the Cleveland Browns this week, as they’ve bet the Kansas City Chiefs up from -4 to -5 ½ against Cleveland.
Before the Browns were shut out 30-0 by Cincinnati last Sunday, the Las Vegas Hilton’s early line was Kansas City -2 ½.
Have the Browns quit? The question needs to be asked considering they’ve lost numerous defensive backs, have no ground attack and morale is eroding with Charlie Frye and Braylon Edwards getting into a sideline shouting match.
Professional sports bettor Dave Malinsky doesn’t believe so. “A Romeo Crennel team doesn’t quit,” Malinsky says.
Oddsmaker Mike Seba agrees. He made the line Kansas City -3 ½.
“I’m surprised they’ve bet Kansas City so high,” said Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “I know Cleveland didn’t look good, but they should be fired-up after losing their first two home games. So you figure to get a good effort.
“Sometimes you have to look at the spot and not necessarily the talent. Kansas City is a decent team, but when you start asking them to lay nearly a touchdown on the road you’re asking for trouble.”
Kansas City is on a nice roll, winning seven of its last nine and holding their past four most recent opponents to 17 or fewer points. Maybe that’s why bookmakers at Pinnacle have seen three times as much action on the Chiefs than on the Browns through Monday morning.
But if you discount their 41-0 home win against San Francisco, the Chiefs’ average victory margin is less than seven points.
Herm Edwards is a conservative, run-oriented coach. With a home game the following week against Baltimore and then a division showdown against San Diego, the Chiefs could be looking ahead.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are another team desperately needing a victory. The Jaguars didn`t look good losing two of their three recent games, falling to lowly Houston in Week 10 and last Sunday to Buffalo.
Before their loss to the Bills, the Jaguars were 2 ½-point road favorites against the Miami Dolphins on the Hilton’s early line. The Dolphins are currently as high as -3 at some books.
“I think that’s a little high,” said Seba, who made the line Miami -1. “The Jaguars really need the game.”
Jacksonville, however, has one of the most extreme home-road dichotomies in the NFL. The Jaguars are 5-1 at Alltel Stadium outscoring their six foes 147-47 for an average margina of victory of 17 points.
On the road the Jaguars are 1-4 both straight-up and against the spread.
At the Palms hotel in Las Vegas, the biggest early line move occurred in the Atlanta Falcons-Washington Redskins matchup. The game opened pick but the Redskins are currently -2. Hopefully Michael Vick won’t flip off those betting against him.
Gamblers may be finally realizing that Vick and the Falcons are nothing but fool’s gold.
“Atlanta has gotten a lot of money this year,” said Steve Ferrero, a sports book supervisor at the Palms. “They’ve been a good team for the book.”
In the Monday night game, the Carolina Panthers are a field goal favorite on the road against the Donovan McNabb-less Philadelphia Eagles.
“Early on nearly all the money came in on Carolina, most of which was public money,” said Simon Noble, bet shop manager at Pinnacle.com. “In this game, the juice moved before the spread and no bets came in on Philadelphia until the line moved to plus juice on the Eagles.
“While the line remains Carolina -3, betting has been pouring in on the Panthers at a rate of 19-1, meaning this line could quickly shift to 3 ½.”
FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press) colts sign vertran reciever.
Ricky Proehl`s agent said the veteran receiver signed Monday with the Indianapolis Colts, who have been without Brandon Stokley for most of the season.
The 38-year-old Proehl agreed to a one-year deal that would be prorated on a $1.2 million base salary, his agent Alan Herman said.
The Colts made no announcement about the signing, and coach Tony Dungy said earlier Monday that the team was talking with Proehl. Herman declined to elaborate on the negotiations.
(Proehl) brings a veteran guy who`s been in these December and January big games, Dungy said. A slot receiver who knows how to get open and make tough catches. I think he`d fit into what we`re doing.
The Colts are fresh off their best performance of the season, a 45-21 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night.
The Colts take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday as 7-point road favorites.
But it might have come at a cost. Tight end Dallas Clark appeared to seriously injure his right knee after catching a pass in the first half.
Clark was scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday. Dungy said although there has been speculation that Clark tore his anterior cruciate ligament, he could not confirm that before the test.
Stokley has played in just two games, most recently Oct. 8 against Tennessee, when he sprained his left knee. The Colts keep hoping he will return, and Dungy said Monday he thought Stokley could practice this week.
Proehl has played in 242 games during a 16-year career, including stops in Arizona, St. Louis, Chicago, Seattle and most recently, the Carolina Panthers. He was part of the Rams and Panthers Super Bowl squads.
The former Wake Forest receiver has caught 666 passes for 8,898 yards and 54 touchdowns, including 25 receptions for 441 yards and four TDs last year with the Panthers. He worked out for the Colts on Oct. 12 but wasn`t signed.
Proehl`s 30-yard TD catch with 4:44 to go in the 2000 NFC championship game gave St. Louis an 11-6 win over the Dungy-coached Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sending the Rams to the Super Bowl.
As I told him when he was here earlier in the fall, he`s taken a lot a money from me, Dungy said. So I know what`s he capable of.
NFL PICKS- (associated press): merriman back for chargers.
The lights flickered back on for Shawne Merriman, who returned to the San Diego Chargers from his four-game steroid suspension on Monday, flashing a funky haircut and eager to resume pounding on quarterbacks.
Merriman`s first game back will be at Buffalo on Sunday, when the AFC West-leading Chargers (9-2) will try to extend their winning streak to six.
Books have the Chargers as 6-point favorites with the total set at 43 1/2.
I think I`ll be a little bit anxious waiting for Sunday to get here, but Sunday I`ll be fine, just getting out there, flying around, knocking some heads, the star outside linebacker said.
With plenty of time on his hands, Merriman had his nickname, Lights Out, carved into his hair. He earned the nickname with his jarring hits, and he celebrates sacks by pretending to flip a switch tattooed on his forearm, followed by a spasmodic dance.
Merriman was tied for the NFL lead with 8 1/2 sacks when his suspension began on Nov. 1. He`s now tied with six other players for the fifth-highest total.
Merriman has denied he`s a steroid cheat, saying the positive test stemmed from a tainted supplement. He has refused to identify the supplement because his attorney has threatened a lawsuit against the manufacturer.
Merriman, the 2005 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl starter, knows some people will remain skeptical.
You have to understand that the kind of person I`ve been and the kind of person I am, there should be no question in nobody`s mind - even though there will be - about my ability on the football field, Merriman said. This is God-given talent and that`s what I`ve been showing since I`ve gotten on a football field. I think over time everybody will see that and know that.
Merriman called it a mistake and a hard lesson learned. He spent a great deal of time working out during his suspension. He said he remains at his playing weight, but a lot angrier.
Fueled mostly by LaDainian Tomlinson`s incredible touchdown binge, the Chargers and their depleted defense went 4-0 in Merriman`s absence, including Sunday`s 21-14 win over Oakland.
That streak also included consecutive rallies on the road, when the Chargers came back from deficits of 21 points at Cincinnati and 17 points at Denver.
I was proud of those guys, Merriman said. It was no doubt in my mind that they were going to win the games when I was out. A lot of people said they thought they`d got 2-2 without me, or 3-1. I said, `No, you guys are going to win it all.` I can be nothing but proud of how they played in my absence.
Merriman`s teammates gave him a hard time Monday about being on vacation, his haircut and the tight shirt he was wearing. It was surprising he was even wearing a shirt, because Merriman loves to show off his physique.
He looks fresh to me, said Tomlinson, who leads the NFL with 24 touchdowns, 21 of them coming in the last seven games. We`ll see.
Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer thinks Merriman will be able to step back in OK.
I`m sure he`s got to harness some of his energy because he`s excited about being back, the coach said. I know he has been working out but that`s not like being out there on the practice field all the time. But we`re delighted to have him back.
Also Monday, Schottenheimer showed the team video of Vincent Jackson`s boneheaded play, when the wide receiver made a diving catch of a fourth-down pass early in the fourth quarter, rolled to the ground untouched and then jumped up and spun the ball forward in celebration. Oakland`s Fabian Washington jumped on it, thinking it was a fumble.
After about 10 minutes of confusion, it was ruled an illegal forward pass and the Chargers had a first down. Four plays later, Tomlinson hit tight end Antonio Gates with a tying, 19-yard touchdown pass. Tomlinson scored the winner with 3:39 left.
Schottenheimer also was unhappy that cornerback Drayton Florence didn`t just go down after his interception deep in Chargers territory with less than two minutes left.
When you`re dealing with young players, this stuff happens, Schottenheimer said. What you have to do is be good enough overall and perform well enough overall to overcome that stuff. Young players, they go through certain things and you go, `Duh!` If they didn`t have that particular thing they had to overcome, then you wouldn`t need coaches.
Schottenheimer said Jackson should have followed the Seattle rule and handed the ball to an official.
The Chargers use two officials during practice, and players must hand the ball to one of them after a play, or be fined.
It`s something we`ve done since I was in Kansas City, because we had a guy who fumbled a ball and lost it in Seattle and cost us the ballgame, Schottenheimer said. You take the ball at the end of every play and you hand it to an official. Well, excitement overrode good judgment and we`re sitting there staring at it.
FREE NFL PICKS (associated press) cowboy's release kicker.
The Dallas Cowboys released Mike Vanderjagt on Monday, apparently tired of his inability to live up to his reputation as the most accurate kicker in league history. Martin Gramatica was signed as his replacement.
The Cowboys gave Vanderjagt a $2.5 million bonus as part of a three-year, $5.4 million contract to shore up a position coach Bill Parcells felt cost the team three wins last season.
However, he was injured and inconsistent in training camp, plus reluctant to handle kickoffs. Parcells never seemed to warm to him and he was only 13-for-18 on field goals, the lowest success rate (72 percent) of his career.
Dallas (7-4) plays at the New York Giants (6-5) on Sunday. Winners of three straight, the Cowboys are first in the NFC East, with the Giants one game back.
Oddsmakers have the Cowboys as 3 1/2-point favorites with the total set at 43 1/2.
The Cowboys did not release any details about the move. Players were off Monday. Parcells will next speak to reporters Tuesday.
FREE NFL PICKS - (espn.com): vick fined for gesture to fans.
Quarterback Michael Vick has been fined $10,000 by the NFL for the obscene gestures that he directed toward heckling fans following the Falcons' loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
In addition to the fine, the league has requested that Vick donate $10,000 to a charity of his choice, a development confirmed by three league sources.
The Falcons confirmed the $10,000 fine on Wednesday.
It is not known who suggested the charitable donation, but that element was part of the discussions between the league and Vick's representatives over the past two days. Obviously, there will be no appeal of the fine.
In the past, players who made obscene gestures on the field and were first-time offenders typically were fined $5,000 by the NFL.
Vick's base salary for 2006 is $1.4 million, but that is hardly reflective of the magnitude of his contract, which was extended last year and can be worth as much as $130 million. Because league action supercedes anything the Falcons might want to do, there will be no sanctions by the club.
The incident for which Vick was fined occurred shortly after the Falcons lost to the Saints, 31-13, a defeat in which the Georgia Dome crowd jeered the home team and its quarterback much of the day. As Vick was heading toward the tunnel that leads to the Falcons' locker room, he exchanged words with fans screaming at him, then alternately extended the middle fingers of both hands.
Vick issued an apology through the Falcons hours after the incident. On Monday afternoon, he again apologized during a new conference at team headquarters.
"It was just a part of a situation where my emotions got the best of me," Vick said. "I apologize sincerely to all my fans and to everybody who saw me make that gesture. … It won't happen again."
FREE NFL PICKS- (espn.com): eagles long snapper career in doubt.
The Philadelphia Eagles have lost standout long snapper Mike Bartrum for the rest of the season with a neck injury that might threaten the career of the 13-year veteran
Bartrum phoned Eagles trainer Rick Burkholder on Monday afternoon complaining of a severely stiff neck, and subsequent tests revealed a small chip on a vertebra, a bulging disk and a herniated disk. Burkholder said the chip is incidental and that the bulging disk is "not a big problem" but acknowledged the herniated disk is a concern.
"[It's] lying against his spinal cord," Burkholder told the Philadelphia media. "We're not going to let him play the rest of the season, and at the end of the season, we'll re-evaluate and see what needs to be done."
In Sunday's loss at Indianapolis, Bartrum made an early third-quarter tackle of Terrence Wilkins on a punt return, which may have exacerbated the injuries. But it is believed the problems revealed by the MRI on Monday were a pre-existing condition perhaps aggravated by Sunday's game.
"We think it's old stuff in his neck," Burkholder said. "That's what made us disqualify him from playing. Any time there's a disk that close to the spinal cord, there's a chance for a catastrophic outcome."
Bartrum, 36, has long been regarded as one of the NFL's premier long snappers, and his mastery of the esoteric art earned him a Pro Bowl berth last season. He has also lined up occasionally as a tight end in goal-line and short-yardage situations and has 11 career receptions for 65 yards and six touchdowns.
He has appeared in 171 games and been with the Eagles since 2000. Before that, he played in Kansas City (1993-94), Green Bay (1995) and New England (1996-99). There has been some speculation this year that Bartrum might retire at the end of the season.
Philadelphia is expected to sign a replacement deep snapper on Wednesday. Starting defensive end Darren Howard is listed as the backup deep snapper but has limited experience in the role.
NFL FREE PICKS- (covers.com) top 10 nfl money teams ats as of 11/28/2006.
1 IND
2 BAL
3 CHI
4 SD
5 NE
6 DAL
7 NO
8 NYJ
9 BUF
10 SF
NFL FREE PICKS- (espn.com) : rb molmes could return to chiefs in 2007.
Running back Priest Holmes will not return to the Kansas City Chiefs this season.
However, Chiefs general manager Carl Peterson said Tuesday that recent medical tests on Holmes have been encouraging and Holmes hopes to return for the 2007 season. Tuesday was the last day the Chiefs could have activated Holmes.
"He does not, at this time, plan to give up football," Peterson said. "We're looking at another evaluation in January or February of '07."
Credit the Chiefs with being classy and loyal as an organization for the way president Carl Peterson is handling the Priest Holmes situation. By the summer, it was pretty easy to figure out Holmes wasn't going to play this season because of his neck and back problems. Peterson likes Holmes and worked out a contract that paid Holmes this season if he played or didn't play.
To read more of John Clayton's Quick Hits, click here.
The three-time Pro Bowler, who turned 33 last month, has not played since Oct. 30, 2005, when he was injured on a hit by Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman in a game at San Diego. The hit left him with head and neck trauma, diagnosed by three spinal specialists.
He missed the last nine games of the season after skipping the last eight games of the 2004 season with a knee injury. He has appeared in all 16 games in a season only four times since breaking into the NFL in 1997.
Peterson said Holmes, who is under contract through 2009, told him on Friday that he wanted to remain on the physically unable to perform list through this season.
"We're 12 weeks into the regular season," Peterson said. "Without getting into the medical aspects of it, I think there were some questions as to whether he could have himself ready to play."
Peterson declined to say whether Holmes would have been able to return had he gotten the same evaluations earlier in the season rather than within the past week.
Holmes had his best year in 2003 after a lucrative contract extension, rushing for 1,420 yards and setting an NFL record with 27 touchdowns. Seattle's Shaun Alexander broke the record with 28 TDs last year.
Since Holmes' injury, though, Larry Johnson has emerged as Kansas City's marquee running back and Holmes has been all but invisible, staying at his home in Texas instead of working out with the Chiefs in Kansas City.
That was nothing unusual for the intensely private and enigmatic back who became a surprise star after going undrafted out of Texas.
He joined Baltimore as a rookie free agent in 1997, rushing for 1,008 yards the following season, before taking on a reduced role behind Jamal Lewis. He came to Kansas City as an unrestricted free agent before the 2001 season, when he led the league in rushing with 1,555 yards and earned his first Pro Bowl berth.
He ran for 1,615 yards in 2002, third in the league, despite missing the last two games with a hip injury that prompted the Chiefs to take Johnson with their first-round pick in the 2003 draft.
"With Priest, you can never count him out," said Holmes' agent, Todd France. "In my mind, there's no question. In his mind, there's no question.
"In everyone else's mind, he's been second-guessed his entire career, and people have been wrong."
Peterson said he has maintained regular contact with Holmes and the team understood and supported the running back's decision to stay in Texas.
"He felt that until he could play where he'd like to be, at 100 percent, and to practice at 100 percent, he didn't want to be a distraction," Peterson said.
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