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NFL PICKS & NFL FREE PICKS
NFL PICKS- (covers.com) week 15 nfl opening line report.
With perhaps the glaring exception of one game, the NFL opening lines for Week 15 appear
very solid.
That one game is Denver at Arizona. The Broncos are -2 ½. Should the Broncos, losers of
four in a row with a rookie quarterback going through a controversial baptism, be a road
favorite here?
“I would say no,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the
company supplying betting numbers to many of Nevada’s casinos.
Yet the oddsmakers at LVSC sent out Denver -1 to their hotel clients.
“It’s a tough call,” Seba said. “Denver is still alive but its defense the last few weeks
has fallen apart. The Broncos defense has been on the field too much because of the
problems on offense. Their defense is worn down.”
The quarterback switch from Jake Plummer to highly-touted first-round draft pick Jay Cutler
has brought extra scrutiny, especially since Cutler has made some egregious mistakes as
he’s gone 0-2 in starts against Seattle at home and San Diego on the road.
“Cutler is a full year behind (Matt) Leinart in terms of development,” professional sports
bettor Dave Malinsky said. “The type of experience Cutler has gone through hasn’t really
helped him.”
The Broncos could be suffering from a loss of confidence after failing to live up to such
high expectations. They last dropped four straight in 1999.
Arizona, on the other hand, is playing its best ball.
The Cardinals have covered their past four games and are off back-to-back victories against
St. Louis and Seattle. Edgerrin James has rushed for 96 or more yards three of the last
four behind an improved offensive line that has yielded just four sacks the last five
games.
All this leads to the next question: Will the wise guys get involved with the Cardinals and
push the line to pick ’em, since you know the public won’t get involved with Arizona?
“Most wise guys can’t bet Dennis Green against Mike Shanahan in a small pointspread range,”
Malinsky said.
There is some debate as to how high San Diego should be favored at home against Kansas
City, a team they lost to by three points in Week 7. LVSC’s recommendation was Chargers -10
½. Offshore books opened San Diego -7 ½. The line currently is Chargers -8.
“I don’t want to be in a position of opening the Chargers -7 ½ and seeing them get bet up
to 10,” Seba said. “They (bettors) play San Diego every week. The public really rides them.
I think -9 ½ is the right number.”
If LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t the best running back in the NFL, then Larry Johnson is. And
if Antonio Gates isn’t the best pass-catching tight end, then Tony Gonzalez is.
So can we make the underdog work here if the line climbs to double-digits? Kansas City’s
defense is better than it has been the past four years. The Chiefs have a veteran
quarterback, solid offensive line and ability to keep the ball away from the Chargers, who
lead the NFL in scoring averaging 32.7 points.
Malinsky doesn’t believe so.
“There’s little value to the Chiefs,” he said. “Not with the way the Chargers have been
smoking and with revenge. You better have a lot going if you’re going to step in against
them.”
What happens if the Chiefs were to fall 14 points behind the Chargers?
“Time to change the channel,” Malinsky said.
Miami is 5-1 its last six. The Dolphins just shut out New England, yet are 2-point
underdogs to Buffalo. The Bills have been out-gained by an average of 75 yards a game.
“The Bills beat them (the Dolphins) earlier in the year and are at home, so they have to be
favored,” Seba said.
Jacksonville rolled past Tennessee, 37-7, in Week 9. This week the Jaguars are 3 ½-point
road favorites against the Titans. The loss to the Jaguars was the only time the Titans
haven’t covered in their last nine games. They are 6-3 straight-up in this span with their
other two defeats coming by one point to Baltimore and by one point to Indianapolis.
“They are unbettable on the road,” Malinsky said of the Jaguars. “It was a big win for
Jacksonville beating the Colts. Jacksonville is one of those effort teams. The Jaguars have
to have a big effort to be successful and this could be a flat spot for them after beating
the Colts.”
At first glance the Monday night over/under on Cincinnati-Indianapolis seems low. The game
opened 51 and currently sits at 52. It wouldn’t be surprising if the total climbed several
more points higher before kickoff.
“If a game ever looked like a 55, it would be this matchup,” Seba said. “But you have to
look at what these teams have been doing lately.”
The Colts have failed to exceed 17 points four of their last five games, while the Bengals
have surrendered only 17 points total in their past three games against Baltimore,
Cleveland and Oakland.
NFL PICKS : (associated press): books react to falcons rb injuries.
The Atlanta Falcons may be without their two top tailbacks next week as they continue to
pursue a wild-card playoff spot.
Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood were lost with calf and knee injuries respectively in
Sunday`s 17-6 win at Tampa Bay. Coach Jim Mora provided no updates on either player`s
status on Monday after saying Sunday the two would be listed as questionable.
The Falcons survived against Tampa Bay by moving fullback Justin Griffith to running back.
Griffith ran for 57 yards, including a 21-yard touchdown.
Can the Falcons, tied at 7-6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia for the NFC
wild-card lead, expect Griffith, who had 12 carries Sunday, to be the lead back for a full
game Saturday night against Dallas? Will quarterback Michael Vick again assume more
responsibility as a runner and passer after having only three carries for five yards
against Tampa Bay?
Books have the Falcons listed as 3-point underdogs for Saturday`s game against the Cowboys.
Dunn has 997 yards rushing to lead the team. Norwood the rookie speed threat, has added 550
yards rushing while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. If either is ruled out of one or more
games, the Falcons will almost certainly sign a running back.
It`s doubtful, however, that any free-agent signee could learn the Falcons` system in time
to earn substantial playing time.
That`s something we`re talking about internally, and until (Dunn and Norwood) are ruled
out we`re just going to keep that to ourselves, Mora said when asked Monday about his
plans at running back.
Griffith, a fourth-year starter from Mississippi State, had only six carries for 34 yards
this season before Sunday.
Vick has rushed for 934 yards, 35 away from Bobby Douglass` 34-year-old record for most
rushing yards by a quarterback in a season. He needs 66 to become the first quarterback to
run for 1,000 in a season.
Griffith said he will prepare to play fullback and tailback this week, though he said he
expects Dunn and Norwood to return.
I`m anticipating that they`ll probably be ready to go Saturday night, Griffith said.
Both of them are warriors.
It seems more likely Dunn could play this week. The team may be more reluctant to rush
Norwood`s return from a knee injury.
In recent weeks the Falcons have tried formations with Dunn and Norwood on the field at the
same time. The speed backs provide more big-play potential than the possible starting
combination of Griffith at running back and Fred McCrary - another 230-pounder from
Mississippi State - at fullback.
Then again, a power attack with Griffith and McCrary could be more effective in
short-yardage and goal-line situations.
You`ve got two big backs back there now, Griffith said. I`m 230, he`s 237 or
whatever, and we just like going in there and pounding that rock.
FREE NFL PICKS. (associated press): redskins doomed by overconfidence.
Phillip Daniels is a standup guy, a team leader and 11-year veteran defensive lineman who
speaks his mind.
On Monday, he sat calmly at his locker and subtly called out his teammates as he explained
why the Washington Redskins, a team with high preseason expectations, are headed for a
last-place finish.
It ain`t the success that`s the problem, Daniels said. It`s how you handle it, and I
don`t think we handled it very well.
The Skins opened as 10-point underdogs to the red-hot New Orleans Saints for Sunday`s game
on PinnacleSports.com.
The Redskins have many problems, but the one that might have affected them most this season
is smugness. Coming off last year`s playoff run, players and coaches had no trouble
speaking openly about the Super Bowl. Coach Joe Gibbs held his shortest, lightest training
camp. His assistants were so certain their schemes would work, they didn`t give them any
sort of a dry run during the preseason.
Gibbs, contradicting his statements that one year doesn`t buy the next, contributed to the
hype when he said the season opener would be one of the most important games he`s ever
coached.
Then came 0-2 start. The doubts crept in and the team never really recovered.
It all started with the expectations being so high for this team coming off last season
and not having the success that everyone thought we would have early on, safety Troy
Vincent said. You have a great coaching staff, a lot of talent, you go out and spend
money in free agency thinking you that you filled the right pieces that you needed to fill
for the puzzle, and it`s not happening Sunday. It causes everyone to think: `What are we
doing?`
The Redskins (4-9) will finish with a losing record for the second time in Gibbs` three
seasons since he emerged from retirement. He only had one losing season (7-9 in 1988)
during his first 12-year stint with the team. He went 6-10 two years ago while relearning
the ways of the NFL, but more was expected this year after last year`s resurgence that
included a 10-6 record and a playoff victory.
You`ve got to come back and be confident, but don`t be cocky, don`t be overconfident,
Daniels said. I think a lot of guys saw we added people here and there, and they figured
we can just roll our helmet on the field. It doesn`t happen like that. You`ve got to
work.
Daniels said he didn`t see much outright cockiness, but there were telltale signs of
players not taking their work as seriously.
Guys have got to stop running out of here early after we get off practice and stay around
and start studying a little more, Daniels said.
It shows on the field, often in ugly ways. The Redskins had a great statistical day playing
physical football Sunday in a 21-19 loss to Philadelphia, but there were three sequences
that made the team look silly.
One drive included a false start, a holding penalty and a sack on a play in which
quarterback Jason Campbell tripped over tackle Chris Samuels` foot, creating a third-and-31
at the 4-yard line. Another drive stalled after back-to-back false starts.
Then there was the third-and-goal at the 3 in the fourth quarter. Needing a touchdown to
take the lead, the Redskins were called for 12 men in the huddle. Having to pass with the
ball on the 8, Campbell was blitzed and sacked by safety Brian Dawkins.
We had some plays out there where things kind of got out of hand, Samuels said. We`ve
just got to focus.
Gibbs said his team failed in the smart side of Sunday`s game, and he acknowledged that
overconfidence from last season might be one of the causes of the team`s ills.
Dealing with success is tough. Who knows? Is that a part of it? said Gibbs, pointing to
his head. You never know what goes on, mind-set wise.
Certainly, Gibbs added, we won`t have that problem next year.
FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press) tomlinson breaks record in victory.
LaDainian Tomlinson had barely swept into the end zone and the record book when he was
engulfed by the behemoths on his offensive line.
They hoisted him onto their shoulders and carried him toward the sideline, with Tomlinson
holding the ball high in his right hand and waving his left index finger, a 48-20 win over
the Denver Broncos and the AFC West title all wrapped up.
With chants of L.T.! L.T.! and MVP! MVP! pouring from the stands, everyone got to
celebrate Tomlinson`s NFL-record 29th touchdown of the season.
Chargers backers also celebrated the ATS win as San Diego covered as 9-point favorites. The
final score played over the total of 41.
Really, the star running back, who may be one of the more humble athletes in all pro
sports, wouldn`t have it any other way.
Once I got over the pylon, my initial thought process was to bring every guy on the
offensive unit over to share that moment, Tomlinson said. When we`re old and can`t play
this game anymore, them are the moments we are going to remember, that we`ll be able to
tell our kids, tell our grandchildren. We can talk about something special that we did. We
made history today.
There`s no better feeling than to share it with the group of guys that`s in that locker
room.
With three touchdowns, including the final two in a 47-second span late in the game,
Tomlinson broke Shaun Alexander`s year-old record of 28.
The Chargers` seventh straight victory, coupled with Kansas City`s 20-10 loss to Baltimore,
gave San Diego (11-2) its second division title in three seasons.
The Chargers also grabbed the inside track to home-field advantage throughout the AFC
playoffs when Indianapolis lost 44-17 at Jacksonville to fall into a tie with Baltimore at
10-3.
But this game was all about Tomlinson, who has become the MVP front-runner by scoring 26
touchdowns in the last nine games.
He came into the huddle and said, `I want all of you guys to join me in the end zone when
I get it,` right tackle Shane Olivea said.
Tomlinson was soon on the shoulders of 300-pound men.
He is a king and he should be treated like one, left guard Kris Dielman said. That is
what a king gets.
Said fullback Lorenzo Neal: I think he will go down in history as the best.
Coach Marty Schottenheimer has long contended that Tomlinson is the best running back he`s
ever seen. On Sunday, he amended that feeling.
I believe he is the finest running back to ever wear an NFL uniform.
Tomlinson was greeted by several Broncos at midfield after the game. He ran to the far end
zone to celebrate with fans, then ran back along the sideline, both arms upraised, while
heading to the locker room.
NFL PICKS- (associated press): randy moss questionable with injury.
Oakland receiver Randy Moss is questionable for the Raiders`game against St. Louis after
twisting his ankle.
Oddsmakers have the Raiders listed as 1-point favorites on Sunday against the Rams.
Moss injured the ankle after a 16-yard catch on the second play of the second quarter in
Sunday`s 27-10 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Moss limped off the field and did not
return.
When you turn an ankle over like that, it can be difficult, especially when you`re a
so-called skill guy making those cuts, coach Art Shell said Monday.
Moss had two catches for 28 yards against the Bengals and leads the Raiders with 42
receptions for 553 yards and three touchdowns this season. Moss has not caught a TD pass
since Oct. 22 against Arizona
Moss` injury gave Ronald Curry a chance to play regularly. Curry responded with eight
catches for 99 yards and a touchdown. Shell said Curry would start if Moss can`t go against
the Rams on Sunday.
FREE NFL PICKS (associated press) mcnair throws longest td pass in career.
One big pass play, one big defensive day - and Baltimore is one step closer to the NFC
North title.
Ed Reed had two interceptions and Steve McNair hooked up with Mark Clayton for an 87-yard
score Sunday, leading the Ravens to a 20-10 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs as 3-point
underdogs.
Baltimore (10-3) maintained its two-game division lead over Cincinnati, which beat Oakland
27-10.
The TD throw, which was McNair`s longest career pass and Clayton`s longest career
reception, put the Ravens up 13-0 with just under 6 1/2 minutes left in the third quarter.
Kansas City (7-6), which lost only its second December home game since 1995, answered
Clayton`s catch with Lawrence Tynes` field goal and trailed 13-3 headed into the fourth
quarter.
The Chiefs failed to convert a turnover on Baltimore`s next possession into points, though,
and Jamal Lewis` 1-yard scoring run with just under 3 minutes to go sealed the Ravens`
victory.
Green threw a 5-yard touchdown pass to Dante Hall with 1:20 to go, but by then it was too
late.
The Ravens forced three turnovers and sacked Green four times.
Larry Johnson ran for 120 yards for the Chiefs - but take away his 47-yard gain in the
second quarter, and his other 22 carries netted only 73 yards.
Matt Stover hit field goals of 41 yards late in the first quarter and 23 yards early in the
second to put the Ravens up 6-0.
FREE NFL PICKS - (espn.com): bengals coach embarrased by latest arrest.
The Cincinnati Bengals head coach said so on Monday when asked about the eighth arrest of a
team member in 2006 -- cornerback Deltha O'Neal, who was charged Saturday with drunken
driving and was inactive for Sunday's win over the Oakland Raiders.
"It's unfortunate I have to spend time talking about this and that we, as a group, have had
to spend time talking about this," Lewis said. "I don't appreciate that. We have a lot of
good things going on and unfortunately, these things kind of rear their ugly head and get
in our way."
O'Neal pleaded not guilty to the charge Monday in Clermont County (Ohio) District Court.
Police said O'Neal, who was stopped at a traffic checkpoint, had a blood-alcohol level of
0.10, above the state limit of 0.08.
O'Neal, a two-time Pro Bowl selection, had missed the team's last three games with a
shoulder injury, but was expected to start before the incident.
"Unfortunately, I can't hold their hands 24/7, but it is embarrassing. It's an
embarrassment to our organization, to our city, and to our fans," Lewis said Monday.
"Hopefully, our young people who are fans understand there are certain things in our
society that are unacceptable."
"I think we should feel good around here that our local law enforcement has taken steps to
get people who drink and drive off the road," Lewis added. "I think that's a good thing for
us who live here. Our guys have to understand that. You cannot drink and drive. You tarnish
your image. You tarnish your reputation. It doesn't go away easily."
NFL FREE PICKS- (covers.com) top 10 nfl money teams ats as of 12/12/2006.
1 CHI
2 NO
3 BUF
4 TEN
5 SD
6 BAL
7 JAC
8 NYJ
9 IND
10 NE
NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) : seattle reciever out with turf toe.
First it was Shaun Alexander, then Matt Hasselbeck sidelined with injuries.
Now, it's leading receiver Darrell Jackson.
Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren said Monday that Jackson will not be able to play Thursday
night against San Francisco, another blow for Seattle's injury-riddled offense.
Jackson has turf toe, suffered on his last reception in Sunday's 27-21 loss at Arizona.
Jackson caught a 23-yard pass from Hasselbeck with 3:15 left, but didn't return for the
rest of the drive.
Holmgren had no timetable for when Jackson, Seattle's leader with 63 catches for 956 yards
and a league-high 10 receiving touchdowns, might return. Nate Burleson will start for
Jackson.
"Last year we were pretty fortunate," Holmgren said. "It happens, and you do what you have
to do to plug the holes."
Jackson wasn't the only major injury. Defensive tackle Craig Terrill will be placed on
injured reserve after injuring ligaments in his knee. Terrill is the second defensive
tackle to be placed on injured reserve, joining Marcus Tubbs, who was lost for the season
with a left knee injury.
Seattle is fortunate to be deep along the defensive line. Robert Pollard will be added from
the practice squad to the four-man rotation at the two tackle positions that includes
Russell Davis, Chuck Darby and Rocky Bernard.
"Fortunately we had a couple of extra people there to start with, or else we would be in a
world of hurt right now," Holmgren said. "We can still line up people and play, but we have
taken a couple of hits in there."
Oft-injured left guard Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack also is a question mark with a nagging
groin injury. Holmgren said if the Seahawks had a normal week and were playing on Sunday,
Womack might be able to go. But with the game on Thursday, Holmgren classified Womack as
"iffy." If Womack can't go, rookie Rob Sims would start at guard.
Womack missed five games earlier this season with a knee injury.
Holmgren is hopeful Bobby Engram might be able to play. Engram has not played since Week 4
at Chicago, sidelined with a thyroid problem. Holmgren said he hasn't talked with the
veteran receiver about if he feels well enough to play.
"We're going to try and fast forward so that Bobby can play a little bit on Thursday night.
That's my hope," Holmgren said.
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