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NFL PICKS- (covers.com) week 16 nfl opening line report.
Playoff scenarios, potential bad weather spots, holiday distractions – yes, we’ve reached
Week 16 of the 2006 NFL season.
It just might turn into the most bizarre week of the year for NFL bettors.
“It’s become more difficult,” Las Vegas Sports Consultant senior linesmaker Mike Seba said
about making opening numbers this week.
Your eyes, for instance, aren’t deceiving you. The Chicago Bears really are just -4 on the
road against Detroit. The line is so low because the Bears have already sewn up home-field
advantage.
“If the game meant anything to the Bears, the line would be -10 ½,” Seba said.
Seba and staff recommended Chicago -7 to their many Nevada hotel customers. Seba is
surprised the number is just -4.
“Even if the Bears rest their regulars, they still have good depth with Brian Griese,
Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson,” he said. “I think it (the line) is an overreaction.”
There are several venues this week where weather could factor. One is Buffalo. Yet the
Bills, a team that has been out-gained by 900 yards, is -4 ½ hosting Tennessee. The Bills
have covered seven straight games, but that’s trumped by the Titans going 9-1 against the
spread and winning five of their last six with their only loss coming to Baltimore on a
last-minute blocked field goal.
“Buffalo laying 4 ½ is too high,” said Seba, whose company opened Buffalo -3. “How can you
lay points with Buffalo? They’re life-and-death to win by a field goal and now they’re 4 ½
stepping in against a team that has been playing very well.”
You can’t trust all teams to play hard this late in the season. Motivation becomes a key,
especially during Christmas week.
Early bettors believe Pittsburgh will be up for its home game against Baltimore. The
Steelers opened -3 and have reached -3 ½ at some books. The Ravens embarrassed the Steelers
four weeks ago, 27-0. Since then, Pittsburgh has committed just two turnovers its last
three games and allowed only 13 points the past three games.
Seba doesn’t envision the Ravens rolling over, though, despite failing to cover 13 of its
last 18 road games. The Ravens are battling for home-field advantage and expect to get back
Steve McNair for the game.
“I can’t see ‘3’ with a hook,” he said. “I know it’s a revenge game for the Steelers and
they’re on a roll. But their defense isn’t 100 percent, Baltimore still has something to
play for and the weather could be bad. I’m just not sure if the Steelers are good enough.”
Based on past history and Joe Gibbs’ strong work ethic, Washington could merit an underdog
look. The Redskins are +2 ½ at St. Louis. The Rams have dropped seven of their past nine.
“Joe Gibbs is going to work hard every week,” professional sports bettor Dave Malinsky
said. “So many teams under .500 won’t work as hard Christmas week.”
Malinsky points out the Redskins are 6-1 straight-up and against the spread the last three
weeks of the regular season since Gibbs returned. Washington’s only defeat in this
timeframe came in the final minute to Dallas.
Another strange thing about this week is two Monday games. The late game is the New York
Jets +2 at the Miami Dolphins. The LVSC linesmakers recommended opening Miami -1.
“It should be closer to pick’em than 3,” Seba said. “I could see it ending up being
pick’em.”
Seba disagreed with his fellow LVSC oddsmakers on the New Orleans-New York Giants line.
LVSC opened New York -1, while Seba favored the Giants by 3 ½. The line currently is Giants
-3.
“You have to make them (the Giants) at least 3,” Seba said. “Even though they’ve lost five
of their last six, they’ve still played well in some of those games. They just didn’t win.
They need this game a lot more than the Saints.”
Weather could mean a lot in this matchup as well. The Saints are a warm weather club used
to playing inside a dome. Cold and wind at Giants Stadium could bother Reggie Bush and the
Saints’ passing game. New Orleans hasn’t played at a cold weather site in
NFL PICKS : (associated press): vikings set to go in a new direction.
Vikings coach Brad Childress announced Tuesday that rookie Tarvaris Jackson will start at
quarterback for the final two games of the season. He will get the first start Thursday
night at Green Bay.
Oddsmakers have listed the Vikings as 3 1/2-point underdogs and the total is set at 36.
Jackson, a second-round pick out of Division I-AA Alabama State, takes over for veteran
Brad Johnson - perhaps marking the end of the 38-year-old quarterback`s second stint with
the Vikings.
Childress said Jackson ``gives us the best chance to win.``
``I have high expectations for him,`` Childress said. ``He`s prepared. He`s ready to go.``
Childress has benched Johnson three times this season, with the final move coming in the
closing seconds of the third quarter of Sunday`s loss to the New York Jets. Johnson was
10-of-17 for 96 yards and a touchdown, but failed to move the offense effectively after
throwing a TD to Travis Taylor on his third snap of the game.
After Johnson was booed off the field by the home crowd, Jackson entered with 25 seconds
left in the third period to a standing ovation. He threw for 177 yards, one touchdown and
one interception in a performance deemed ``OK`` by Childress.
The rookie has been fiercely loyal to Johnson throughout the season, defending his mentor
against mounting criticism and refusing to lobby for a start.
But after the Jets game, Jackson was asked if he felt as though he was ready for a start if
called upon this week.
``Of course,`` he said. ``It`d be fun to go into Lambeau. I`ve never even been there. I
always watch guys play there, so it`d be fun.``
FREE NFL PICKS. (associated press): mcnair set to return sunday.
Steve McNair is expected to start this Sunday for the Baltimore Ravens, although his
injured right hand might affect his practice time this week.
Oddsmakers have Pittsburgh listed as a 3 1/2-point home favorite. The total is set at 36.
McNair played only two series in the Ravens` playoff-clinching 27-17 win over the Cleveland
Browns on Sunday. He left shortly after Cleveland linebacker Andra Davis accidentally
stepped on his throwing hand, opening up a cut that made it difficult for the quarterback
to take snaps from center.
McNair could have returned if needed, but backup Kyle Boller played well enough to make
that a moot point.
``Steve was certainly ready to go back in should something have happened to Kyle, so that
was a comfort zone,`` Ravens coach Brian Billick said Monday. ``It was my call. He was
ready to go, but I thought it was the prudent thing to do - and now I`m glad we did.``
McNair wanted to play, but the pain he experienced in taking snaps persuaded Billick to
avoid using him unless it was absolutely necessary.
``My concern was the quarterback-center exchange. Plus, 60 snaps was going to do nothing
but irritate that,`` Billick said. ``I don`t know if that would have in our best interest
in the long term - the long term being next week and the week after next.``
Boller went 13-for-21 for 238 yards and two touchdowns, and Baltimore (11-3) clinched a
playoff berth with its seventh win in eight games. The Ravens are still in the hunt for a
first-round bye and the best overall record in the AFC, and now they`ll have McNair
available for Sunday`s game at Pittsburgh and the regular-season finale against visiting
Buffalo.
``I think I`ll be all right. I just have to get the soreness out of it,`` McNair said after
Sunday`s game. ``I`m quite sure I`ll be ready.``
Billick will be careful this week to make sure McNair`s tender right hand doesn`t take a
beating in practice.
``We`ll see exactly how it feels,`` the coach said. ``There may be a few more shotgun
snaps, just to get him the snap that way. I`ll have to see exactly how that is Wednesday.``
McNair has been an integral part of the Ravens` success this season. Obtained in an
offseason trade with the Tennessee Titans, the veteran quarterback has been a leader on the
field and in the locker room.
He has also thrown 13 touchdown passes and generated comeback wins over Cleveland, San
Diego and Tennessee. But when McNair left the game Sunday, the Ravens quickly accepted the
concept of winning with Boller at quarterback.
``No one panicked, no one blinked. It was Kyle`s in, let`s go,`` Billick said. ``They
adjusted very readily.``
Even McNair accepted the idea of watching from the sideline, albeit with a certain degree
of anxiety.
``I think he recognized that he didn`t want to put the team at risk,`` Billick said. ``I
think he was glad we were able to do something else, because he recognized it will heal
much quicker.``
After going 6-10 last year, the Ravens are delighted to be in the playoffs. But they
realize that the road to the Super Bowl will be a lot smoother if they receive a
first-round bye and play at least one game at home.
``We have to keep chugging,`` linebacker Bart Scott said. ``We still have a lot to play
for. By no means do we shut it down here.``
FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press) strahan ready to play.
Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan might play for the New York Giants on Sunday in
their crucial game against the New Orleans Saints.
Oddsmakers have New York listed as a 3-point favorite. The total is set at 47 1/2.
Strahan hopes to practice this week for the first time since spraining his right foot
against the Houston Texans on Nov. 5. He has missed the last six games, a span that has
seen the Giants (7-7) lose five times.
New York can win its last two games and still be out of the playoffs.
Strahan did not speak to the media in the Giants locker room on Monday. Earlier in the day,
he said in a weekly paid radio spot that his chances of playing were 50-50.
Coach Tom Coughlin and Strahan had a long talk before Sunday`s 36-22 loss to the
Philadelphia Eagles before deciding to give Strahan another week off.
``Michael wants to play, he wants to play,`` Coughlin said Monday, adding that the final
decision to rest him was made about four hours before kickoff.
Strahan worked in individual drills last week, but he did not practice with the team.
``I really believe it was the smart thing,`` Coughlin said. ``He has not practiced. He has
not had the pads on and he hasn`t been off balance and tried to plant and push.
``I want the guy on the field as much as anyone does,`` Coughlin added. ``I think you have
to be very smart about this. You have to be sure the medical people are on board and that
the player can perform at a high level and be in position where he can be productive and
not have to worry that he will re-injure himself.``
Coughlin said the medical staff wants to see Strahan practice for a week before clearing
him to play.
``We`re trying for it to be this week,`` Coughlin said.
NFL PICKS- (associated press): rattay to start for tampa bay.
Thanks to Tim Rattay, Tampa Bay no longer is the lowest scoring team in the NFL.
Now, the Buccaneers will find out if the veteran quarterback can help them stop a four-game
losing streak.
Coach Jon Gruden said Monday that the seventh-year pro will make his first start of the
season, replacing rookie Bruce Gradkowski when the Bucs (3-11) travel to Cleveland (4-10)
on Sunday.
``It`s just common sense right now based on performance and who gives us a better chance
win a football game,`` Gruden said. ``We`d like to finish the season as strongly as we can,
and I think Bruce is struggling to a degree right now.``
Oddsmakers have the Browns listed as 3-point favorites. The total is set at 35.
Rattay replaced Gradkowski during the first half of Sunday`s 34-31 overtime loss at
Chicago. He led Tampa Bay`s first touchdown drive in 14 quarters, then threw for three
fourth-quarter TDs to help the Bucs force the extra period.
The Bucs were able to cover in that contest as 13-point underdogs.
A week after appearing briefly against Atlanta and showing signs he might be able to spark
the offense, Rattay threw for 268 yards to lead the Bucs back from a 24-3 deficit against
the Bears.
Joey Galloway`s 64-yard TD reception capped a 95-yard drive, and Ike Hilliard scored on a
44-yard pass play to tie the game 31-all.
The performance raised the question of whether Gruden might have been able to save Tampa
Bay`s season if the coach had not turned to Gradkowski, a sixth-round draft pick, when
Chris Simms was lost for the season in Week Three.
Rattay has made 16 starts - all with San Francisco - in seven NFL seasons. Nevertheless,
Gruden elected to try to develop Gradkowski rather than placing hope for salvaging the year
in the hands of the more experienced backup.
Gruden doesn`t second-guess the decision.
``I`m not going to get real deep and philosophical. We felt Bruce Gradkowki recognized
looks, feel he`s got the ability to make plays, liked the way he moved our team at times.
We just aren`t able to complete drives,`` Gruden said.
``He`s been victimized several games by dropped passes and things out of his control. We`ve
played a very difficult schedule. It`s hard to get a young guy ready to play without
committing a lot of practice time to him. We`ve contemplated using Tim. We`ve also been
very committed to helping a young guy get better.``
Gradkowski is 3-8 as the starter and has thrown for nine touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Rattay, obtained from San Francisco in a trade in October 2005, was 4-12 as a starter with
the 49ers.
``I`m excited, obviously,`` Rattay said, adding that his confidence didn`t waver while
riding the bench and that he hadn`t wasted energy wondering what might have been if Gruden
had given him an opportunity sooner.
``I don`t comment on hypotheticals or what ifs,`` Rattay said. ``I`m excited to be playing
this week.``
The Bucs hope Gradkowski benefits by watching the last two weeks of the season.
``I think I can benefit from this year altogether. It`s been a great experience for me,``
the rookie said.
``It`s going to be tough to sit back and watch, especially being out there playing this
year, but I have to try to get whatever I can out of it.``
FREE NFL PICKS (espn.com) nfl fines owens for stipping on falcons cb.
Terrell Owens has 35,000 reasons to never spit at an opponent again
T.O. was fined $35,000 by the NFL on Monday for spitting in the face of Atlanta cornerback
DeAngelo Hall during Saturday night's Cowboys-Falcons game. Owens, however, told Westwood
One radio that he has filed an appeal of the fine.
Although it's more than twice as much as the last fine for spitting, the flamboyant
receiver avoided a suspension.
That doesn't mean he is out of Cowboys coach Bill Parcells' doghouse.
Parcells said Monday "we don't condone that kind of activity," adding that the team may
also punish Owens.
"If we did, I wouldn't make anybody aware of it," Parcells said, thus indicating that the
penalty wouldn't be a suspension either.
Hall had called for the NFL to suspend Owens.
"I think, for what he did, he deserves more than a fine," Hall said on Sunday. "The guy has
all the money in the world. He's making $10 million or whatever this year. So what's a fine
going to mean to him, really? What he did, it was [vulgar], you know? But he's a great
player, a great competitor, and what would hurt him a lot more than a fine is making him
sit. That would get his attention. And that's what I think the league should do. They need
to do something pretty [severe], because there's something wrong with him, and he just
can't get away with this kind of stuff."
Hall was adamant on Sunday that Owens offered no apology.
When told on Monday that Owens was not suspended, Hall responded, "It's over, it's done. We
are getting ready for these Carolina Panthers to come to town. I can care less if I hear
his name again."
But did T.O. even know he spat at Hall?
At first, he said he did, telling the NFL Network after the game: "I got frustrated and I
apologize for that. It was a situation where he kept bugging me and getting in my face."
But on Monday, he insisted it was an accident.
Should T.O. have been suspended?
Theisman's take:
Joe Theisman thinks T.O. should have been suspended for a minimum of two games for spitting
in the face of DeAngelo Hall. He also believes T.O. will do something at some time to hurt
the Cowboys during their playoff run. To hear the rest of Joe's analysis, click here
Irvin's take:
Michael Irvin says T.O. should have been fined, but not suspended. The league shouldn't
suspend T.O. just because he's T.O. There is no precedent for suspending a player for
spitting, so the NFL can't start now. And if Owens still played for Philly? To hear
Michael's surprising answer to that question, click here
"When it happened, we were jawing in each other's face, so it wasn't anything intentional,"
Owens said. "I didn't intentionally spit in his face. He's trying to make it seem like more
than what it was by saying I hauled off and spit in his face. I feel like if I spit in his
face ... somebody would've seen it."
A suspension would've hurt Dallas (9-5) more because Owens is the team's leading receiver
and the Cowboys go into their next game needing a win to lock up the NFC East title.
And, considering that game is against his former team, Philadelphia, and will be nationally
televised on Christmas afternoon, sitting out would've been a blow to T.O.
The punishment hardly makes a dent in Owens' wallet. He's making $10 million this season as
part of a three-year, $25 million contract signed in March.
Parcells said he wasn't surprised by the hefty fine "because I think commissioner [Roger]
Goodell is trying to take strong action on some of this stuff." Parcells seems in favor of
it, too, pointing to the Nuggets-Knicks brawl that also happened Saturday night as another
example of why such discipline is needed.
"This is dangerous stuff. You've got to try to do things," Parcells said. "I do think you
see a lot of things in sports today that you wish weren't a part of. For an old-fashioned
guy like me, especially."
Last season, Washington's Sean Taylor was kicked out of a playoff game for spitting at
Tampa Bay's Michael Pittman and was later fined $17,000. In 1998, Tampa Bay linebacker
Hardy Nickerson was fined the same amount for spitting on Carolina fullback William Floyd.
And in 1997, Denver linebacker Bill Romanowski was fined $7,500 for spitting in the face of
49ers receiver J.J. Stokes; Owens was Stokes' teammate at the time.
"The fine does not surprise me," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said.
Spit-gate is the latest on a long list of things that have spiced up Owens' first season in
Dallas.
There was a hamstring injury that kept him out of most of the preseason and a fine for
being late to work. Then came a broken hand in the second game that required surgery that
led to an accidental overdose on painkillers. Police called to his home reported it as a
possible suicide attempt, which his publicist shot down by saying Owens "has 25 million
reasons to live."
Owens has admitted to a sleeping problem that causes him to doze off in meetings and has
questioned cutting kicker Mike Vanderjagt. He's also claimed to have slept through a speech
by Parcells. Last week, he talked about not trusting people in the organization, fearing
that a snitch is dishing dirt on him.
Yet it's hard to argue with what he does on game day.
Owens leads the NFL with 11 touchdowns -- the most by a Cowboys receiver since Michael
Irvin in 1995 -- and is among the league's best with 77 receptions and 1,040 yards.
His numbers would be even better if not for a league-leading 15 drops. Part of his problem
holding onto the ball could come from torn ligaments in his right ring finger that have
bothered him for about a month. He'd denied it was a problem until Saturday night, when he
said surgery is needed but he's waiting until after the season for the good of the team.
Asked if that showed another side of T.O., Parcells said, "Yeah, I think he wants to play."
Parcells also explained why he doesn't like talking about his most-talked-about player, the
one he often refers to as "the player."
"I get interested in other things pretty quickly," he said. "I don't pass judgment. I just
try to get the player to play to his potential on the field -- that's what my job is to do.
I told you that when the player came here. It's my job to try to make things work -- that's
what I'm trying to do. ...
"I'm trying to be polite and answer the questions you people are asking," Parcells said.
"You don't have anything else to write I guess."
FREE NFL PICKS - (espn.com): lios assistant suspended.
Detroit Lions defensive line coach Joe Cullen, arrested twice in the preseason, has been
suspended for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears and also fined $20,000 for what
commissioner Roger Goodell termed "conduct detrimental to the league."
The rare sanctions against a coach are the result of an arrest for nude driving on Aug. 24
and for drunken driving on Sept. 1, both misdemeanor charges. Lions coach Rod Marinelli
suspended Cullen for the regular season opener but, after meeting with the first-year
assistant on Dec. 1, Goodell decided that further action was required.
The suspension took effect on Monday and Cullen cannot work at all with the Lions this week
and cannot attend the game against the Bears.
When Cullen was suspended by the team, in September, he was permitted to work with the
defensive line as the club prepared for the season opener. It is not known who will assume
his duties this week. Marinelli was a longtime defensive line coach in the league before
landing the Detroit head coach job, so he may take on the responsibilities.
"The league had previously informed us of this possibility, so this was not unexpected,"
Marinelli said in a statement. "I do want to say that I am really proud of how Joe has
responded to his mistake. He has been getting treatment and has done a commendable job in
dealing with his problem. He has definitely learned from his mistake and has moved forward
in a very positive manner."
Cullen, 39, was ticketed and cited in August, during training camp when he allegedly went
through the drive-in window at a fast-food restaurant late at night and the server noticed
he was naked. A week later, he was stopped for erratic driving and registered a blood
alcohol content of .12 on a breathalyzer test. The legal limit in Michigan in .08.
The two cases have been continued until Jan. 11, so that Cullen could undergo counseling.
NFL FREE PICKS- (covers.com) top 10 nfl money teams ats as of 12/19/2006.
1 BUF
2 TEN
3 CHI
4 SD
5 NO
6 NYJ
7 BAL
8 IND
9 NE
10 DAL
NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) : panthers rucker out for season.
Carolina Panthers all-time sacks leader Mike Rucker will miss the rest of the season with
a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.
Rucker suffered the season-ending injury late in the first quarter of Sunday's loss to
Pittsburgh, moments after being credited with a half sack that raised his career total with
the team to 52.5.
"It was kind of a fluke thing where the tight end bumped into one of our players and his
knee got tangled in that," coach John Fox said Monday.
Recovery from a torn ACL can take up to a year, and the 31-year-old Rucker is due a $2.5
million roster bonus in March, making it possible Rucker has played his last game with the
Panthers. Fox declined to discuss Rucker's future with the team.
"It's a hard thing moving forward. It's a lot of hard work, it's a lot of pain," said Fox,
who talked with Rucker on Sunday night. "I'd say he's in pain."
Rucker was Carolina's second-round pick in 1999. He made the Pro Bowl in 2003, when the
Panthers reached the Super Bowl.
"He's definitely a champion guy," Fox said. "We'll miss him, not only as a player, but a
guy who has been out there for the good and the bad. It's somebody we lean on."
Other players injured Sunday include punt returner Taye Biddle (knee and thigh), cornerback
Dion Byrum (thigh) and receiver Drew Carter (ankle). All three players will be evaluated
before the team returns to practice Wednesday.
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