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NFL PICKS & NFL FREE PICKS
NFL PICKS & NFL FREE PICKS
NFL PICKS- (covers.com) week 17 nfl opening line report.
Only in wacky Week 17 could we see lines such as Carolina -3 at New Orleans, Tampa Bay -3 ½
hosting Seattle, Tennessee -3 home to New England, Chicago just -2 ½ at home to Green Bay
and the New York Jets laying a whopping 12 ½ at home against Oakland.
Our task is to step over this playoff muck and determine which lines are inflated, which
have value and where the great bargains are during this final week of the regular season.
The Panthers, Buccaneers and Titans are all favorites because their respective opponents
are locked into playoff spots.
Does this mean the Saints, Seahawks and Patriots will roll over? Probably yes, when it
comes to the Patriots. Bill Belichick has a lot of banged-up players.
But when it comes to the Seahawks, the answer probably is no. Mike Holmgren doesn’t want to
enter the postseason on a four-game losing streak. Don’t look for the Seahawks to mail in
this regular-season finale like they did last year when they lost at Green Bay.
In the case of the Saints, it wouldn’t surprise me if New Orleans Coach Sean Payton played
Drew Brees and the rest of his regulars for at least a half, since his team has clinched a
first-round bye. Being off for two weeks could leave the Saints rusty.
At least one Internet book, www.BetCRIS.com, had the Carolina-New Orleans total at 35 ½ as
of Tuesday morning. That brought a reaction from one professional Las Vegas oddsmaker.
“I don’t see that at all; it’s way too low,” said Sean Van Patten, a linesmaker for Las
Vegas Sports Consultants. “That’s a total you would see on a Baltimore game.”
Van Patten also is astonished the Bears are as low as -2 ½ hosting the Packers even though
Chicago has sealed up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. There’s also a chance
the Packers may be eliminated from playoff contention before even taking the field Sunday
night. Van Patten made Chicago -6 ½.
“I realize the Bears have nothing to play for, but their second-string is still strong,” he
said. “Brian Griese, Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson could start for a lot of teams, and
you’re still going to get a strong effort from their defense.”
The most the Jets have been favored by this season is -5. But with a chance to earn a
playoff spot in a must-win situation, the Jets have been installed as 12 ½-point favorites.
Oddsmakers need to do something to entice people to bet Oakland, even though the Raiders
have the worst offense and are the most disjointed team in the league.
“As much as I hate Oakland, the Jets just aren’t the type of team to blow somebody out like
that,” said professional gambler Dave Malinsky. “Their focus is just to win the game. Once
they get the lead, they’re going to be as conservative as possible.”
Other big lines include San Diego -14 hosting Arizona, Dallas -12 ½ hosting Detroit and
Denver -10 ½ at home to San Francisco. San Diego and Dallas are playing for playoff
seeding, while the Broncos probably will need a victory to make the playoffs.
Is there too much inflation with these lines? Should we be looking to the underdog in these
matchups?
Not in the case of the Cardinals and Lions. Van Patten said the Chargers still would be
around two-touchdown favorites against the Cardinals at home. The Lions just have too many
injuries to compete. They also are winless on the road this season.
There might be some value, though, with San Francisco.
“With the 49ers, you know you’ll probably get a good effort,” Malinsky said.
Van Patten agrees. His line on the 49ers-Broncos matchup was Denver -7.
“It’s definitely high at -10 ½,” he said. “A lot of these teams aren’t going to lie down.”
NFL PICKS : (associated press): dolphins bench harrington.
According to a report from a Miami area newspaper, Joey Harrington has lost his job as the
Dolphins’ starting quarterback.
A story in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel cited a source close to the team who confirmed
that Harrington will be the backup for Sunday’s season finale in Indianapolis and in his
place, Cleo Lemon will get the start.
Oddsmakers did not adjust the pointspread or total in light of the quarterback change.
Miami remains a 9-point underdog to the Colts and the over/under holds steady at 41 ½.
Lemon, a third-year pro out of Arkansas State, took the reigns of the Dolphins offense in
the second half of last week’s game against the New York Jets after Harrington completed
fewer than 50 percent of his passes and failed to engineer a scoring drive.
Although Lemon’s NFL experience was nil two weeks ago, he performed well in a relief role
each of the Dolphins’ last two games after Harrington struggled. When head coach Nick Saban
put Lemon in the game to start the second half against the Jets, the 27-year-old managed to
complete 11 of his 16 passes, including a touchdown strike to Randy McMichael that capped
off a 76-yard drive in the fourth quarter.
For the season, Lemon has completed 62.5 percent of his passes and has not thrown an
interception. He has a quarterback rating of 90.9.
Harrington goes into Week 17 with a completion percentage of 57.5, including 12 touchdowns
and 15 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 57.5.
FREE NFL PICKS. (associated press):dungy to play regulars sunday vs miami.
Tony Dungy won`t change his philosophy.
He intends to play his regulars this week, build momentum for the playoffs and try to put
the Indianapolis Colts in the best possible playoff position - even though they no longer
control their seeding fate.
We`ve got to treat this like a must-win game, he said Monday. We need to win to stay
ahead of New England and put pressure on Baltimore.
A month ago, the Colts (11-4) appeared headed toward earning a second straight No. 1 seed
in the AFC playoffs. Their late-season collapse has ruined everything.
Back-to-back losses at Tennessee and Jacksonville left San Diego in the lead for home-field
advantage, and Sunday`s demoralizing loss at Houston may have cost Indy a shot at the
coveted first-round bye, too.
More troublesome are the problems that seem to get worse with each passing week.
The league`s worst run defense took another hit Sunday when Ron Dayne rushed for a
career-high 153 yards and two touchdowns - only the third 100-yard game of the former
Heisman Trophy winner`s seven-year career.
By successfully playing keepaway, opponents also have managed to beat two-time MVP Peyton
Manning the one way he can`t control: making him a spectator. Manning has spent more time
in recent weeks studying photos on the sideline than picking apart defenses on the field.
And four losses in six games, including four straight on the road - another ignominious
first during Dungy`s Indy era - have left the Colts in the unenviable position of trying to
turn things around in the playoffs.
It`s an unusual predicament for the first team in NFL history with consecutive 9-0 records,
which is not accustomed to watching the scoreboard in late December.
I don`t think it`s confidence, I think there`s disappointment and frustration that we`re
not getting it done, Dungy said. We have to fix it if we want to get where we want to
go.
Dungy insists the Colts can still get it right in time to make a Super Bowl push. He might
use this year`s St. Louis Cardinals as an example of how to change perceptions in the
postseason.
Many figured the Cardinals` poor closing stretch would produce an early playoff exit in
baseball`s playoffs. Instead, they won the World Series.
Clearly, though, time is running short.
The Colts close the regular season Sunday at home against Miami before likely opening the
postseason against an AFC wild-card team. The worries are mounting.
Oddsmakers at WSEX.com opened the Colts as 7-point favorites for Sunday`s game. The total
opened at 43.
Only a victory over the Dolphins and a win by Buffalo at Baltimore would give Indy the No.
2 seed.
But the uncharacteristic scenarios are also creating some unusual moments for these Colts.
Dungy called the Houston loss his most disappointing in five seasons with Indianapolis
because he thought his team played like nothing was at stake.
Manning was even caught by television cameras pleading with the defense to give him another
chance late in the third quarter, something Dungy said the defense was already telling
itself.
I think we`re all frustrated to a certain point, and we didn`t get it for him enough
yesterday, Dungy said. But nobody`s more frustrated than the defense.
With so much still at stake, Dungy has no intention of using this week to rest starters and
even hopes injured safety Bob Sanders (knee) and tight end Dallas Clark (knee) can play
against Miami.
That would be a best-case scenario, Dungy said. We`d like to get Bob and Dallas some
work before the playoffs, but we`re not going to rush them in there if they`re not ready.
Starting left guard Ryan Lilja also sprained his right knee Sunday, and Dungy said he
wasn`t sure whether he would play.
The one certainty for Dungy is that to prevent another big goal from slipping away, the
Colts` much-maligned defense must improve now.
We can`t let allow the disappointment of not keeping things in our own hands to get to
us, he said. We`ve got to play with the energy and emotion we played with (last) Monday
night and then string together three or four in a row like that.
FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press) strahan out for year.
Seven-time Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Strahan will miss the rest of the season for the
New York Giants after aggravating a sprained right foot last weekend against the New
Orleans Saints.
He was placed on injured reserve Tuesday and could need surgery, the team said.
The Giants (7-8) can almost surely clinch a playoff berth by beating the Redskins (5-10) in
the regular-season finale at Washington on Saturday. Oddsmakers have the Giants listed as
1-point road favorites.
New York also placed offensive tackle Luke Petitgout and returner Chad Morton on injured
reserve. Morton injured his knee Sunday; Petitgout broke a leg against Chicago on Nov. 12.
The Giants had kept Petitgout on the active roster hoping he might play again this season.
However, he has not made enough progress.
The 35-year-old Strahan, who shares the Giants` career sacks record of 132 1/2 with
Lawrence Taylor, hurt his foot Nov. 5 against Houston. He was playing for the first time
since the injury in Sunday`s 30-7 loss to New Orleans. The 14-year veteran had five tackles
(three solo) and knocked down a pass before reinjuring the foot late in the game.
Strahan had 50 tackles (34 solo) and three sacks this season, his lowest sacks total since
he had one as a rookie in 1993. His career sacks total leaves him tied with Taylor and
Leslie O`Neal for seventh on the all-time NFL list.
New York signed free agent receiver Darius Watts, tight end Darcy Johnson from their
practice squad and running back Robert Douglas from the Houston Texans` practice squad.
Watts was a second-round draft choice by the Denver Broncos in 2004. He caught 31 passes
for 385 yards and a touchdown as rookie. The Marshall product had two receptions last
season and was released by the Broncos before this season.
The Giants also made a move on their practice squad, releasing running back Cedric Humes
and signing tight end Jason Randall.
NFL PICKS- (associated press): bears look vunerable down stretch.
Rex Grossman lobbied to stay in the game. Brian Griese led two field-goal drives on the
way to a 26-21 victory at Detroit, and the Chicago Bears` quarterback situation finally
boiled over, right?
Not exactly. Other issues are bubbling, though.
A short-handed defense is looking a bit vulnerable, and although the Bears (13-2) have
home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, they aren`t peaking heading into the
regular-season finale Sunday night against Green Bay. The Bears are set as 3-point
favorites and the total is set at 36.
They needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay 34-31 at home two weeks ago and two late field goals
to beat Detroit. That`s two wins by a total of eight points against teams that are a
combined 6-24, yet coach Lovie Smith used a familiar refrain on Tuesday.
Getting the 13th win was big for our ballclub, Smith said. All wins are hard to come
by, especially on the road. Detroit played us tough.
What about the quarterbacks? And what about the defense?
I thought Rex did some good things early, Smith said. We missed a couple throws we
need to make.
One that stood out was when Grossman badly overthrew wide-open Muhsin Muhammad on what
would have been a touchdown in the third quarter. Still, he was 20-of-36 for 197 yards with
a touchdown, and he has no interceptions the past three games after throwing 14 the
previous seven.
Griese, who came in with the Bears trailing 21-20 early in the fourth quarter, was 6-of-9
for 51 yards. He led a 72-yard drive that set up Robbie Gould`s go-ahead field goal and
made a pass that set up another one by Gould.
I felt really comfortable with being in there again, taking my reads, reading the
defenses and leading the team, Griese said.
Is Smith considering a change? Probably not.
Smith was adamant about sticking with Grossman during his midseason turnover binge, so it
seems unlikely he would lose faith in the quarterback now. And Grossman`s last drive ended
in a field goal.
Griese was surprised to go in with the game on the line, but he showed he is capable of
providing a spark, even though he had not taken a snap since Oct. 29.
To be honest, I was happy it was that way, he said. If I go in and it`s a
two-touchdown lead it`s not as competitive. I really enjoyed that part of it.
Smith said: We knew Brian was a good football player, but he hasn`t played in a situation
like that in a long time. We assumed that`s what he would do.
Smith probably did not anticipate this, though: The defense has slipped from first to fifth
the past four weeks, with opponents` yards jumping from 261.1 per game to 288.9. The Lions
finished with 327, the fifth straight week an opponent had at least that many.
They can blame that on lackluster play and, in part, on injuries.
We`ll take a win anyway we can get it, said defensive end Mark Anderson, who had two
sacks and has 12 this season - 2 1/2 shy of the rookie record. This game is so important
for us because it keeps our momentum going.
Still, the Bears are limping.
Pro Bowl safety Mike Brown suffered a season-ending foot injury in October, and defensive
tackle Tommie Harris underwent hamstring surgery this month. Although cornerback Nathan
Vasher started against Detroit after missing two games with a hamstring injury, cornerback
Charles Tillman missed the game with a bad back.
And defensive tackle Tank Johnson served a one-game suspension after being hit with
misdemeanor weapons charges and then going to a nightclub with a friend who was shot to
death. Johnson, who can only leave home to go to work, is expected to rejoin the team this
week and might play against Green Bay.
Our hope is to get Tank back into the fold, and we`ll go from there, Smith said. I`m
going to judge him just like the rest of our football players.
The Bears hope to have Tillman back against Green Bay, while fullback Jason McKie is
questionable after spraining an ankle early against Detroit.
FREE NFL PICKS (associated press) titans still in playoff hunt.
The Tennessee Titans know they`re in the midst of an amazing run. They see no reason to
stop now, not when they`re so close to an improbable, once unthinkable, playoff berth.
No NFL team has ever started 0-5 and made the playoffs. But the Titans (8-7) have hope and
a chance to make history thanks to rookie quarterback Vince Young and a six-game winning
streak that makes anything seem possible.
We`re still alive, and considering the 0-5 start, to be alive going into the last game is
very gratifying, Titans coach Jeff Fisher said.
Reaching .500 seemed impossible after a 14-13 loss at Indianapolis on Oct. 8, their fifth
straight defeat to open this season and second with Young starting. But he now is 8-4 as a
starter and ended the Titans` string of losing seasons at two.
If they beat New England (11-4) this Sunday, the Titans will match their nine victories
combined from the 2004 and 2005 seasons in their final 11 games.
newbodog.com has the Titans set as 3-point favorites Sunday.
We`re starting to form together as a team and find ways to win ballgames, receiver
Brandon Jones said. We are creating our destination. We are just going to go out there
and keep playing hard and let it work itself out.
The Titans need help.
They trail Denver (9-6) and the New York Jets (8-6), who can clinch AFC wild-card berths by
winning out. Denver hosts San Francisco, and the Jets had Miami and Oakland. They lose any
tiebreaker with the Jets after a 23-16 season-opening defeat.
Cincinnati (8-7) is ahead on tiebreakers. But these young Titans are very confident after
finding so many different ways to win in this streak that everything seems possible.
Sunday`s 30-29 victory at Buffalo was the fourth comeback in this stretch.
We know there is always a way for us to win, linebacker Keith Bulluck said.
And they`ve used nearly every one:
- Score 24 in the final 10 minutes and rally from 21-0 to beat the New York Giants.
- Make a 60-yard field goal to down Indianapolis at the end.
- Get Young`s thrilling overtime touchdown run at Houston, and three defensive TDs against
Jacksonville.
Their biggest problem in Buffalo wasn`t the gusting winds, but 11 penalties for 81 yards.
Rob Bironas, who has won four games this season with field goals, sent kickoffs dribbling
out of bounds twice, giving the Bills excellent field position.
This is really the first time we`ve overcome mistakes to win a ballgame, and now we got
to learn from it, Fisher said.
But the Titans ran for 215 yards - the fifth time they`ve topped 200 this season - and
Young provided another highlight with his 36-yard TD dash on fourth-and-2. The defense gave
up 368 yards, but held Buffalo to five field goals, four from inside the Titans 20 and
three at the 6 or closer.
Now they must prove they can handle the pressure of being expected to win. They opened as a
rare 3-point favorite against New England, which has clinched the AFC East.
Only nine of these Titans were on the roster in their last playoff game, a 17-14 night loss
in frigid New England on Jan. 10, 2004. Five free agents led by safety Chris Hope, a Super
Bowl winner with Pittsburgh last season, were brought in because of their experience.
Defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch is enjoying the excitement of his first playoff chase after
spending his first four seasons in Phoenix.
I`m usually playing for pride at this point in the season. We`ve got a chance. The way
this team keeps finding ways to win, I think we are a dangerous team right now, he said.
Running back Travis Henry, who rushed for 135 yards despite having to travel by himself to
Buffalo because he missed the team charter, said the Titans are rolling.
We are just going to play this last game and see what happens, Henry said.
FREE NFL PICKS - (associated press): seahawks skid into playoffs.
All 52 of his teammates chose to quickly hide their NFC West championship T-shirts and caps
inside bags. But Lofa Tatupu was wearing his white T-shirt immediately after the Seahawks
backed into their third division title.
He stood in front of his locker looking proud. Defiant, almost.
I do feel bad we lost, but I don`t think it`s a situation where people have to tell us we
didn`t earn it, Seattle`s linebacker said Sunday evening, immediately after San Diego
spoiled the Seahawks` comeback from a 10-0 hole in the second half with a touchdown pass in
the final 29 seconds of the Chargers` 20-17 win.
Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was upset about losing what he said was his team`s first
well-played game in a while. Then he saw the division champs gear waiting for him in
the locker room minutes after Arizona upset San Francisco to clinch the Seahawks` backdoor
way into the playoffs.
He got the same conflicted feelings much of Seattle has right now.
You come inside and you`re just sort of exhausted and obviously upset about losing the
game, Hasselbeck said. Then sitting in your locker is a T-shirt and cap that says you
are the NFC West champs, which is really our first goal.
I still like our team. I like our team`s chances in the tournament.
Few others do.
Many are snickering that the Seahawks (8-7), losers of three straight, are getting a home
playoff game. They will host a wild card, most likely Dallas or Philadelphia, on Jan. 6 or
7 - even though they have to win Sunday at Tampa Bay just to finish with a winning record.
Seattle may have a worse record than the wild-card team it will host after winning the
NFL`s weakest division, where no other team is above .500.
newbodog.com has the Seahawks listed as 3 1/2-point underdogs for Sunday.
The Seahawks aren`t apologizing. It`s not their fault the NFC this season stands for Not
Fully Competitive.
The best illustration of how different this Seattle season of injuries, mistakes and
repeated disappointment has become from 2005: A month ago, there was frustration at failing
to match last season`s consistent excellence that led to 13 wins in the regular season and
the franchise`s first Super Bowl berth.
Now, leading the AFC`s best until the final seconds before losing yet again ranks as a
Seahawks accomplishment - after weeks spent desperately grasping for anything resembling a
positive.
Shaun Alexander, who looked much like his 2005 MVP self while rushing for 140 yards and a
bullish touchdown that gave Seattle its first lead Sunday, said a duplication of Sunday`s
effort will win any postseason game.
As long as the Chargers aren`t on the other side again, that is.
I think so, Alexander said. I think the Chargers are definitely a Super Bowl team. We
play against a bunch of other teams that way, I think we`ll win.
I`m glad they are in the AFC. Hopefully, everyone over there can bang them a little bit
before we seen them in Miami (for February`s Super Bowl).
Alexander is known for hyperbole. But his seemingly misguided Super Bowl talk came from his
belief in the same across-the-team improvement that Hasselbeck saw while almost upsetting
San Diego, following miserable losses to Arizona and San Francisco and uneven play all
season.
I think everyone saw our real team for the first time this year, Alexander said. This
is the healthiest Matt and I have been all year. This is the first time the offensive line
fully knew their roles.
Before, I didn`t think we were a good team ... any team could have beaten us. This week,
we showed the Seahawks really are.
But Seattle might have a new problem on defense.
Cornerback Marcus Trufant sprained his right ankle during the opening drive of the third
quarter Sunday after Tatupu rolled over his leg at the end of a play. Seattle`s best cover
man immediately went to the locker room for X-rays.
Those pictures were negative. Trufant said he was due for more tests Monday. Coach Mike
Holmgren said his starting right cornerback may have a high ankle sprain, which sometimes
lingers. Right tackle Sean Locklear had one on his left ankle earlier this season and was
out six weeks.
I`ll really start to worry after (Monday`s tests), Trufant said ruefully while slumped
over crutches.
Rookie Kelly Jennings, who replaced Trufant on Sunday, would likely start at right
cornerback in the playoffs. That could make a season-long concern in giving up deep pass
plays such as Sunday`s game winner an even bigger liability in the postseason.
As if Seattle needs another.
NFL FREE PICKS- (covers.com) top 10 nfl money teams ats as of 12/27/2006.
1 TEN
2 NO
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6 SD
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8 NE
9 IND
10 DAL
NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) : jets ready for playoffs.
Eric Mangini has banned his New York Jets from discussing their postseason chances since
training camp.
One more win against the lowly Oakland Raiders, and the playoffs will be all they`re
talking about. A shocking turn of events, considering where this team was a year ago.
Oddsmakers have the Eagles set as 13-point favorites for Sunday`s game. The total is set at
34.
This is definitely an exciting time of year for us, but our approach will be consistent
just like it was with Miami, Mangini said Tuesday, hours after a 13-10 win over the
Dolphins. We need to take care of what`s in front of us, and what`s in front of us is the
Oakland Raiders and that`s all our focus has to be on. Anything else after that point we`ll
address when, and if, it happens.
That cautious approach is nothing new for Mangini, who has preached discipline and
concentration on the task at hand since taking the job.
The key thing for us is to take the same consistent approach that we had in Week 6, Week
1, Week 12 and it carries over, Mangini said. And that`s how we`ve been able to make
progress. That`s how we`ve been able to be successful, and that`s not going to change.
The Jets (9-6) overcame rain, offensive struggles and a potential letdown against the
Dolphins on Monday night. It was a display hardly indicative of a playoff-bound team, but
New York - as it has done often during this surprising season - did just enough to pull out
a victory.
We knew they would give us everything they had, linebacker Jonathan Vilma said after
the game. We knew it would be a tough one, and what to expect, and fortunately we pulled
it out in the end.
All it took was one big play. Rookie running back Leon Washington caught a screen pass from
Chad Pennington and zigzagged his way 64 yards downfield to set up Mike Nugent`s winning
30-yard field goal with 10 seconds left.
We haven`t really completed a really good screen play all year, but they did a great job
blocking down the field, Washington said, and I just did the rest from there.
Washington`s scamper helped the Jets win for the fourth time in five games, move three
games over .500 for the first time this season and improve New York to 6-2 on the road, its
best mark away from the Meadowlands since going 7-1 in 2001.
Only Chicago and New England, both division winners, have better road marks.
Next, the Jets take on the Raiders, who have the lowest-ranked offense in the NFL, but also
have the No. 1 pass defense in the league. New York insists it will not take Oakland and
its AFC-worst 2-13 record lightly.
I`m definitely proud of things that we have done and progress that we`ve made, but to me,
this is an ongoing process and we have another opportunity here this week to make progress,
to go out and execute, and consistency is the goal, Mangini said. And finishing is a
core Jets value and this is part of finishing. This is part of finishing the regular
season, and that`s going to be a big focus of ours this week.
Even if the Jets suffer a letdown against the Raiders, they can still make the playoffs,
but need some help. They would get in if Cincinnati and Jacksonville both lose or tie; if
Cincinnati loses or ties and Tennessee wins; or if Denver and Jacksonville both lose.
Obviously, the Jets would prefer to take care of business themselves.
We`ve talked for months and months about controlling things, Mangini said. And we`re
firm believers that we control the things that happen to us based on the way that we have
prepared, based on the way that we work and based on us carrying that over into Sunday.
If the Jets get into the playoffs, it will cap an incredibly successful first season for
Mangini, who has turned a 4-12 team into one of the league`s biggest surprises.
New Orleans` Sean Payton has experienced similar success as a rookie head coach, taking a
team that finished 3-13 last season and leading it to the NFC South title and a 10-5
record.
In 2002, John Fox took over as Carolina`s coach a year after it went 1-15 under George
Seifert and led the Panthers to a 7-9 record. A year later, the Panthers made it to the
Super Bowl. That`s the sort of impact the Jets are hoping Mangini can have, but first
things first.
I`m going to talk about the playoffs, said Vilma, apparently lifting the team`s ban on
speaking about the postseason.
This was an important game to get into the playoffs, he said. Obviously we have to
win next week to get to the playoffs, and that`s going to be on our mind this week coming
up; that`ll be our focus. It`s a short week, though. We have to get back and get ready.
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