January 17, 2007 - SPORTS NEWS - SPECIAL EDITION MARCH MADNESS COLLEGE BASKETBALL SPORTS NEWS

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NFL PICKS & NFL FREE PICKS NFL PICKS- (covers.com) can saints cover with out dome. Cinderella needs a new pair of shoes. Otherwise, the New Orleans Saints could be in trouble Sunday in Chicago. The fairytale team of this NFL season will attempt to write another chapter in their quest to reach the franchise`s first Super Bowl with an NFC Championship game against the Bears. The Saints play only their sixth game on natural grass this season and they hope switching from indoor to outdoor shoes will help them avoid any slip-ups on their road to Miami. There`s just one problem. Dome teams historically struggle during the colder playoff months when forced to play outside like the Saints will be for Sunday’s NFC Championship game. Since 1985, indoor teams are 16-31-2 against the spread when exposed to the elements in outdoor stadiums. And like the mercury, that number dips with dome teams going a frigid 2-7 ATS in the conference championship round. “It’s definitely something to consider when a dome team travels outside for a game, especially when they have to travel north in January,” says a bookmaker from newbodog.com. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-20’s but bookmakers admit no adjustment was made on the line for Sunday’s game. Chicago remains between -3 and - 2 ½ at most books even though New Orleans is playing out of its element. “There isn’t a set adjustment used when determining the lines for an outdoor team playing indoors or vice versa,” adds the bookmaker. “The adjustments, if any, are based on the fact most indoor teams are built smaller and faster than teams that have to play a more pounding outdoor game.” Dome teams are built to expose the extra speed garnered from an artificial turf, which provides them with a distinct advantage at home. But this can also hinder a team during the colder months of the playoffs. Frozen grass offers little grip compared to its artificial cousin and often disrupts timing. The Indianapolis Colts, another dome team, are notorious for being among the NFL`s best teams, yet they always seem to struggle in the colder climates during the playoffs. Indy suffered back-to-back playoff road losses to the New England Patriots in 2004 and 2005. The Saints were a convincing 6-2 on the road this season with seven paydays. Five of those games came on grass, but all were in somewhat comfortable conditions. Still, Saints head coach Sean Peyton doesn’t feel a need to worry. "The conditions are obviously important to get adjusted to in terms of how you play, so that you`re not slipping or falling,” said Peyton. “Outside of that, I think you become acclimated quickly." New Orleans’ losses on grass this year came in Pittsburgh and Carolina. Sunday’s total is 43 ½. NFL PICKS : (covers.com): colts favored to win super bowl. They say location is everything in the real estate business, and apparently the same idiom applies to setting future odds for the Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts, listed at +150, replaced the San Diego Chargers this week as the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami next month. That’s a little strange considering it was the New England Patriots who actually knocked off the Bolts in the divisional round. But because the Colts are 3-point favorites in Sunday’s AFC championship with the Pats, they simply can’t be underdogs to New England in the futures markets. And it’s because the AFC championship is being played in Indianapolis that the Colts are giving the field goal. “They have home-field advantage,” says Covers Expert David Malinsky, who works as a consultant for all major online and Las Vegas sportsbooks. “The location of the AFC championship game essentially determined who the Super Bowl favorite would be.” No NFC team was going to be tagged as the Super Bowl favorite this week no matter which clubs advanced from the divisional round. The New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears, who square off in Sunday’s NFC championship, are listed at +482 and +420 respectively. Those are long payoff odds considering both the Saints and Bears received a first-round bye while the Patriots and Colts were wild-card teams. Teams with first-round byes have historically had much greater success in the Super Bowl, but the NFC’s perceived weakness is the reason oddsmakers are ignoring that trend. ”Teams that secure a first-round bye usually have to be very good to earn it,” explains Malinsky. “But this year, every playoff team from the AFC can be considered just as good as any playoff team from the NFC. Well, with the exception of Kansas City. “The Saints really don’t scare anybody, or at least they haven’t earned the respect of the betting market. The Bears looked very strong earlier this season, but since losing (defensive tackle) Tommie Harris and (safety) Mike Brown that defense has looked very average.” New England is paying +250 to win the Super Bowl, which is significantly less than either the Saints or the Bears. Books believe that if the Patriots can survive Sunday’s visit to the RCA Dome, their three trips to the championship game through the last five seasons will give them a big edge. “They have so much postseason experience,” says Malinsky. ”The Bears and Saints don’t have any playoff experience either in the locker room or on the coaching staff.” FREE NFL PICKS. (covers.com): linemakers struggling for nfc line.

Sunday’s impending NFC championship at Soldier Field is really taking the oddsmakers to task. The game opened with the Chicago Bears as 3-point home favorites over the New Orleans Saints, but by Monday morning the odds were all over the place. The majority of books dropped the Bears to -2 ½ while lines of -2 and -1 were scattered around the offshore market. Those that stuck with the original number adjusted the juice to +110 for the favorite. Bookmakers say they weren’t all that surprised by the erratic movement because they didn’t have much faith in the opening line to begin with. The field goal was more or less just a toe to test the wagering waters. “The whole idea (behind the opening line) was that the game is really just a pick ‘em, and that you make the Bears -3 for home-field advantage,” says SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “You don’t ever want to come down off a 3-point line because it’s such a key number. But if you do come off it, you want to come off it right away when you don’t have that much action. It’s a hard game to set a line on.” There`s a legitimate case to be made for both the Saints and Bears in this game and that’s why it’s been so hard for oddsmakers to nail down the right line. Perhaps the biggest reason behind the Saints action is the perceived mediocrity of this conference. “With these NFC teams, bettors don’t think any team should be giving the other that many points,” explains Sindall. “They’re all the same kind of marginal teams. There hasn’t been any standout favorite in the NFC this year. There wasn’t any team like the San Diego Chargers in that conference who you knew could beat anyone.” That perception has been reinforced by the results of the first two rounds of the playoffs. Seattle slipped by Dallas 21-20 in that wild-card showdown while Philadelphia topped the Giants by a field goal. The Eagles then fell to the Saints 27-24 in Saturday’s divisional action and Chicago beat the Seahawks by the exact same score. That makes the NFC underdogs a perfect 4-0 in the current postseason. “Gamblers have such short memories,” notes Sindall. “Like after the wild-card round, all the winners were getting hammered in the Super Bowl (futures) because people had just seen them play. So this (underdog trend) is definitely influencing people.” At the same time the Bears went 7-2 in the Windy City this season, and their home-field advantage has to be respected when they’re hosting a team that’s used to playing inside. That, coupled with the possibility of nasty weather, has kept the number above a pick’em. “The Saints are a dome team headed into Soldier Field in mid-January,” notes Sindall, “If (bad weather) is expected, we’ll get Bears action again.” The one factor bettors are divided on is the play of Rex Grossman. The quarterback had a solid, 21-of-38 passing performance in Sunday’s win over Seattle with one touchdown and one interception. Bettors focused on that game will likely be encouraged to back the Bears. But many bettors were burned by his shoddy play down the stretch, when he threw 10 picks in a seven-game stretch and led his team to 2-5 ATS record. Those who backed the Bears during Grossman’s struggles have become hardened Chicago faders, which only adds to this oddsmaking dilemma. “People still aren’t sure if Grossman in the kind of guy you want to bet on in the postseason,” says Sindall. Books have set a 43-point total on Sunday’s NFC championship.

FREE NFL PICKS- (associated press) sainsts have weapons to exploit bears. The top-seeded Chicago Bears managed to hold serve Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Barely. It will be just as hard or harder against New Orleans in the NFC championship game next week. And harder means that Chicago, which opened at -3 on BetCRIS.com, won`t be going to the Super Bowl. The Bears got the mostly good Rex Grossman against Seattle. Yes, there were a couple of turnovers, neither strictly Grossman`s fault, but his 30-yard pass to Rashied Davis set up Robbie Gould`s overtime field goal that gave Chicago its 27-24 win. And the defense made plays often enough - especially on third-and-short - to keep Seattle at bay in a nail-biting fourth quarter and overtime. But without Tommie Harris and Mike Brown, it`s not the same Chicago defense that dominated teams in the first half of the season. This defense, playing on a windy and chilly home field in a somewhat warmer version of ``Bears weather,`` had the lead three times and gave it back three times against a team that for much of this season seemed to be resting on the laurels of its 2005 NFC championship. In the Saints, it will face a multifaceted offense that can do a lot of things the Seahawks can`t. And it`s also opposing the team that probably played the most consistent football in the weaker NFC this season - its 10-6 regular-season record was achieved against a much tougher schedule than the Bears played in going 13-3. Give Deuce McAllister the 100-plus yards Shaun Alexander got on the ground against the Bears, then add Reggie Bush to the mix - both as a runner and receiver. And give Drew Brees the time that Matt Hasselbeck got from Chicago and he could pick it apart, especially if the weather is decent. In fact, the weather is probably the biggest ally the Bears will have in the first conference title game ever for the 40-year-old Saints. New Orleans is an indoor team and indoor teams rarely fare well in the postseason except when they stay indoors for the playoffs, as St. Louis did in 1999-2000, when it became the only dome team to win an NFL title. If the wind is howling and the temperatures are frigid, Brees may have problems. If the field is slippery - or clunky, as it was Sunday - Bush may have problems, although a straight-ahead runner like McAllister will have less trouble. But there`s also no guarantee Grossman, erratic all season, will play another decent game next week. So give the edge to the Bears for being on their home field, but the edge to the Saints for consistency and talent.

NFL PICKS- (covers.com): a look back on an odd nfl betting season. Last year, NFL underdogs covered just 42 percent of the time. This past season, underdogs covered 57 percent. Usually it’s a 50-50 split between favorites and underdogs. So what’s been going on the last two years? There’s no rational explanation for favorites covering nearly 59 percent of the time during the 2005 season. Something like that hadn’t occurred in more than 25 years of research, if ever. Let’s chalk that one up to being a total aberration. There was a correction in 2006 – an overcorrection. Favorites covering 43 percent is another out of whack figure, but before blaming global warming or Donald Rumsfeld, let’s see if this was just another bizarre season or a trend that could continue. Home underdogs had a monster year going 59 percent (47-33-2 against the spread). Double-digit underdogs also hit at a 59 percent clip going 20-14-2. But the biggest factors were the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills. These two non-public teams proceeded to go 18-6 (75 percent) against the spread when they were underdogs. Take away the Titans and Bills and underdogs for the season would have gone 54.9 percent. That percent still is above the norm, but it certainly is nothing like a runaway 57 percent. So, linesmakers need not be alarmed. Every year surprise teams pop out. The key, for bettors, is identifying them early and ride their pointspread bandwagon. The Titans and the New York Jets finished with the best pointspread marks going 11-5 against the number. The Bills were next at 10-6. Also going 10-6 against the spread were Baltimore, Chicago and New Orleans. The worst pointspread team, and Mike Shanahan bashers may take note, were the Denver Broncos at 5-11. Next was Carolina at 5-10-1 followed by the usual suspects – Oakland and Detroit at 6-10 against the spread. While underdogs had the best of it against favorites, things were much more even on the over/under front. The split was 124-122-10 in favor of “overs.” Tennessee was the No. 1 “over” team going 10-3-3. The Bears and Arizona also were strong over teams. Chicago was 11-4-1 to the over, while the Cardinals were 10-5-1 over. With the weakest offense, Oakland, was the top “under” team. The Raiders went below the total 12 of 16 times. Atlanta was next posting an 11-4-1 under mark. The Patriots were 10-6 under. The Patriots went under 10 of their first 13 games. They’ve now played four straight overs counting their opening playoff win against the Jets last week. Miami was another strong under team going 10-6. Any team starting Joey Harrington probably is going to play a lot of unders. Road teams finished with a better spread record than home teams, going 129-120-7 (51.8 percent). Until the final unpredictable week, though, road teams had covered just three more games than home teams. One thing that wasn’t so random was the AFC going 36-27-1 (57 percent) against the spread vs. the NFC. The AFC gets the best of the NFC every year in interconference play. If you’re going to simply play no-brain based on a trend that might be the way to go. FREE NFL PICKS (espn.com) dolphins interview mike shula. The latest candidate to emerge for the Miami Dolphins' coaching job has a big edge in name recognition: He's a Shula.

Mike Shula interviewed for the job Saturday and is one of at least five candidates still under consideration, the Dolphins said Tuesday. Shula's dad, Don, coached the Dolphins for 26 years, holds the NFL record with 347 victories and is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. "Mike is a very, very highly qualified person," Dolphins chief executive officer Joe Bailey said on his weekly radio show. "He's got a lot of his dad in him -- very, very smart, very assertive, very firm." Hiring the younger Shula would mean a swap of coaches with Alabama. He was fired by the Crimson Tide in November and replaced by Nick Saban, who left the Dolphins on Jan. 3 after two seasons. Other remaining candidates to replace Saban: former Atlanta Falcons coach Jim Mora, Georgia Tech coach Chan Gailey, Dolphins defensive coordinator Dom Capers and San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. The Dolphins' search for a head coach has become much less frantic, and that's going to help the process. Read more of John Clayton's Quick Hits. Capers interviewed for the head coaching job, then agreed to a new three-year contract as defensive coordinator last week. His defensive unit ranked fourth in the NFL this season. "He remains in consideration for the head job," Dolphins president Bryan Wiedmeier said. "We're very fortunate to have him in our organization." The Dolphins also met with Cameron during the first round of interviews and have since been in contact with his agent. "He's an outstanding football mind, probably one of the more innovative football minds in the game today," Wiedmeier said. The Dolphins have met with at least 13 candidates, and that list could grow. There's speculation Miami will pursue Marty Schottenheimer if he's fired by the San Diego Chargers, who were eliminated from the playoffs Sunday. "If a candidate surfaced today that we felt was compelling and that was the right person, certainly we would consider that," Wiedmeier said. Among those no longer under consideration is Schottenheimer's son, New York Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. The younger Schottenheimer, at 33 Miami's youngest candidate, withdrew from consideration Monday. "There are very few people … that would have the maturity to say to themselves -- which is what he has said -- 'I don't think at this point, either from a professional or a personal standpoint, that I'm ready to take the next step,'" Bailey said. The Dolphins apparently believe the 41-year-old Shula might be ready to become an NFL head coach. He went 26-23 in four years at Alabama, but 0-4 against Southeastern Conference rival Auburn. The Crimson Tide fired him after they went 6-6 during the 2006 regular season. Shula said he left Alabama in better shape than the program he inherited, which was weakened by NCAA sanctions. In a statement released by the Dolphins, Don Shula endorsed his son's candidacy. "Everywhere he has coached, Mike has exhibited class, integrity and enthusiasm, all critical ingredients to run a successful program," the elder Shula said. "He has spent his entire life around the game and understands what it takes to build a winner. He has a special feeling about the Dolphin organization and truly appreciates the opportunity to talk to the team's management about the future of the franchise." Mike Shula was a Dolphins ballboy when his dad coached the team. He has spent 15 years as an NFL assistant, most recently in 2000-02 as Miami's quarterbacks coach. "He clearly has a track record of success when he was here, but also elsewhere as an assistant coach before he went to the University of Alabama," Bailey said. Don Shula has advised management during the search, as has Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino. "Coach Shula's opinion is something that we hold in high regard. He has given us his opinion of a number of our candidates," Wiedmeier said. "Danny has been a great resource. I don't think anybody has any more passion for us to succeed than Dan. "Think about all the people that Dan knows, and all the people Coach Shula knows. These are the people we look to and get advice from." FREE NFL PICKS - (associated press): arizona hires new head coach. Ken Whisenhunt has a degree in civil engineering. That background ought to come in handy as he tries to rebuild the Arizona Cardinals, who have had one winning season in 19 years in the desert. The Cardinals have resisted many efforts to turn them into a winner. But Whisenhunt, who joins the club after three years as Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator, thinks the team has the tools to become a playoff contender. He cited promising young quarterback Matt Leinart, veteran running back Edgerrin James and a strong receiving corps led by Pro Bowler Anquan Boldin as reasons the Cardinals aren't as far away as last season's 5-11 record would indicate. "From an analytic standpoint, being a civil engineer, if you look at all those things, it would give you a chance to win," he said after being formally introduced Tuesday. "Hopefully, I don't screw it up." The Cardinals hope the same thing. Unlike Dennis Green, who was fired after going 16-32 in three seasons, Whisenhunt doesn't have a track record as an NFL or college head coach. But club officials were impressed by the 44-year-old coach's experience with the Steelers. Whisenhunt helped mold Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who set an NFL record by winning his first 13 career starts and, one year later, became the youngest quarterback in league history to win a Super Bowl. The Cardinals also talked to numerous NFL coaches who had tried to stop the Steelers' offense in recent years. "What we learned is that quite a few people used the word 'innovative,'" said Rod Graves, Arizona's vice president for football operations. "We wanted to make sure that it was his offense, that he was making the calls. We were confident, having researched that area, that he's had a tremendous role in building that football team." But there's a difference between working for the Steelers, one of the NFL's model franchises, and building the Cardinals, who have had more home cities (three) than postseason victories (two). Whisenhunt is aware of the organization's troubled history, but isn't intimidated by it. "You recognize that, but I don't think you live in the past," Whisenhunt said. "This is a dream come true for me." Whisenhunt signed a four-year contract with a team option for a fifth. He's the team's eighth coach since the Cardinals moved to Arizona in 1988. A native of Atlanta and a graduate of Georgia Tech, Whisenhunt played nine NFL seasons with the Falcons, Redskins and Jets. Whisenhunt plans to move quickly to assemble a staff. Seven of Green's assistants were retained pending the hiring of a new coach, and Whisenhunt expects to meet with them. One strong candidate is Dan Henning, Whisenhunt's coach in Atlanta. Henning is available after being fired as Carolina's offensive coordinator. Whisenhunt, who said he will call the offensive plays on Sundays, also interviewed for coaching jobs in Pittsburgh, Miami and Atlanta. He and fellow Pittsburgh assistant Russ Grimm had been considered leading candidates to replace Bill Cowher with the Steelers. But the Steelers moved slowly to fill their position, and Whisenhunt was ready when the Cardinals made an offer. Whisenhunt said his interest grew during the week between his first and second interviews as he learned more about the roster and the organization. And, with the team's encouragement, he spoke to several players, including strong safety Adrian Wilson. "I think he's very sharp," said Wilson, who attended Tuesday's news conference. "I think he's very detailed and organized in what he wants to do. Obviously, he's been to the Super Bowl and he's won it. We're definitely happy to have him." And Whisenhunt is happy to be here, if not a little surprised. During his interview, Whisenhunt toured the Cardinals' gleaming stadium in Glendale with Michael Bidwill, the team's vice president and general counsel. Whisenhunt had first set foot in the retractable-roofed stadium last August, when the Steelers visited for the Cardinals' preseason opener. He had no clue then that he'd be the Cardinals' head coach five months later. "If you'd have said, 'You're going to be the head coach of the team that plays in this facility,' I'd have said, 'Wow.' I would have been surprised,'" Whisenhunt said.

NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) london may host nfl regular season game. London will hold the NFL's first regular-season game outside North America, the start of an international campaign to take American football to a global audience. The opponents for the 2007 contest have yet to be announced, but the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants are believed to be front-runners for the game. The Dolphins, but not the Giants, are one six NFL teams the league identified as potential home teams; they would give up a home game in Miami to host the contest in London. "They are two of the teams that have expressed an interest and we'll narrow it down to which two teams will generate the most enthusiasm for the fans in London and the broader U.K.," Goodell said. The most likely venue is the new 90,000-seat Wembley Stadium, which will open this spring after years of delays. The other candidate is 82,000-seat Twickenham, home of English rugby. "We're looking at both venues in terms of their readiness," said Marc Waller, vice president of NFL International. "It's important that we understand terms of readiness of both stadiums and then a financial bidding process will also ensue." The game will be held somewhere between late September to mid-October. Goodell will announce the teams, venue and date before the Feb. 4 Super Bowl in Miami. NFL owners voted in October to play up to two games outside the United States every season for the next five years. The London game will be the only overseas contest in 2007. Germany, Canada and Mexico have been identified as the other top markets for NFL games outside the United States. "We eliminated Toronto after agreeing with the Canadian Football League that we wouldn't go there because it was already hosting the Grey Cup," Goodell said. "Mexico was discussed, as well as Duesseldorf and Hamburg." The NFL staged its first regular-season game outside the United States in 2005. The Arizona Cardinals played the San Francisco 49ers before a crowd of 103,467 in Mexico City. London hosted several NFL American Bowl preseason games in the 1980s and 1990s. The city also had the London Monarchs in the World League of American Football -- now NFL Europe -- but the team folded. Goodell said fans have reacted positively to the league's overseas plan, even though it means some teams will lose a scheduled home game. "There are fans here that we think will like the idea and respond to it because it puts your city on a global stage and the city will be showed as a world class city itself," he said.

NFL FREE PICKS- (associated press) : 49res extent lease at monster park. The San Francisco 49ers extended their lease for five years at Monster Park, but team officials were continuing to focus on the possibility of building a new stadium in Silicon Valley. In a letter delivered to Mayor Gavin Newsom on Friday, team officials said they were extending their lease for the city-owned stadium from May 2008 through May 2013. But the team also planned to continue exploring building a stadium next to their headquarters and training facility in Santa Clara, about 45 miles south of San Francisco. "We are going to play at Monster Park for the foreseeable future," spokeswoman Lisa Lang said. "But we have made our goal clear to everyone: We want a new stadium by 2012." If a new stadium was built within that time, the team would have to make contractual arrangements with San Francisco to leave Monster Park before the lease expired, Lang said. Earlier this month, Santa Clara officials agreed to conduct a six-month study to build and finance a new stadium there. Stadium construction would be funded through a public-private partnership that should not result in higher taxes for Santa Clara residents, team officials said. Meanwhile, Newsom has asked the 49ers to build a new stadium at the city's old Hunters Point Naval Shipyard, a location rejected by the team two years ago over concerns about limited freeway access and toxic waste at the site. "We are keeping the door open to San Francisco and are open to any new ideas they might have," Lang said. The 49ers pay $9 million per year in rent and taxes for Monster Park. The team has played at the Candlestick Point location since 1971.