There is an abundance of quality storylines in this NFL season: the dominant New England Patriots, the disappointing New Orleans Saints and a rejuvenated Brett Favre leading the Green Bay Packers to a 3-0 start.
The biggest shocker for an over/under player like myself is the video game-like final scores some clubs are producing. After watching Fox’s NFL halftime show, I thought Terry Bradshaw was giving me Arena Football League highlights. 56-21, 31-28, 30-24, 31-24, 37-16. Did the defenses take the week off?
The more I watched on Sunday the more it made sense. Teams were passing on three out of four downs and either cashing in on big plays or stopping the clock with a series of incomplete passes.
The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t run on the Chicago Bears. No worries. Quarterback Tony Romo passed on 14 of 15 plays for 110 yards. Dallas wins the game 34-10 thanks to Romo’s 329 passing yards on 35 attempts. He wasn’t the only quarterback passing on nearly every down.
Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck went toe-to-toe with a combined 80 pass attempts between the two. The Tennessee Titans let Vince Young pass several times on first down – something almost unheard of last season.
The strangest part was coaches seemed to be giving up on the run in the first half. It was happening in close games too. It’s not like one team had to pass every chance it had because it was in a hole.
Nineteen teams threw more than they ran in the first half last week compared to only eight teams that ran more. Eleven of the 16 games played over the total and oddsmakers took note.
“You’re seeing a lot of passing in the first half from some teams you wouldn’t expect,” says John Avello, the director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas. “Miami, Houston, Atlanta, even Kansas City. It’s something I’m going to be keeping my eye on.”
Running the ball 60 percent and passing 40 has long been considered a winning formula, but that thinking may be dated. Last season the balanced flipped to 45 rush and 55 pass (14,448 rushing plays called versus 17,552 passing). Twenty-four teams passed more than they ran in 2006 including Super Bowl finalists Indianapolis and Chicago.
“Ten years ago the key to the game was running the ball and stopping the run,” Covers Expert Ted Sevransky says. “Last season we saw the team with the worst run defense (Indianapolis) win the championship. The Minnesota Vikings were the best at stopping the run and they had a good offensive rushing game, but they were terrible.”
Even though teams are passing more, the totals haven’t been fluctuating. Over the last 10 years the average total has hung consistently around 40. Sevransky credits this to the popularity of dink-and-dunk West Coast offenses.
“When I’m betting overs, I want teams that have quick-strike scoring ability,” he says.
There are three teams that fit the bill. The Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions are each pass-heavy teams and take a high number of shots down field. Each club has completed at least 11 plays of 20 yards or more but the results haven’t equaled a high percent of overs. Oddsmakers are on top of these high-flying offenses as the three teams have a collective 5-4 over/under record.
“We look at things like if there’s injured running back or if a team’s going against a good run defense,” Avello says. “We assume in these situations they’ll pass more and we adjust the total.”
The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in run defense but they hold a 2-0-1 over/under record because teams give up on the ground game and start passing every opportunity.
“I look closely at the run/pass ratio when handicapping totals,” Covers Expert Steve Merril says. “I like to look for reasons to play the under with two running teams as it shortens the game, and I look to play the over with two extreme passing teams as it lengthens the game and also leads to more potential big plays.
“Obviously this concept is usually already incorporated into the pointspread, so I look for situations where the line is reasonable and where each team is coming off a misleading result from the previous week.”